It’s that time of year, when everyone rolls-out their predictions for 2026. I’ve moved a bit away from the predictions and started doing more of a hybrid of predictions and trends. Here’s my 2025 predictions and trends article, and here’s my 2024 predictions, in case you just want to see how I fared (most were accurate). This year, I’m mixing it up again, with a bit of both. But before I begin, I think the one big undercurrent to all of this – the one takeaway if you just want to stop reading here- is that there’s a lot of opportunity for new things in 2026. Every prediction/trend mentioned below somehow hints at a business and/or artistic opportunity for anyone inclined to start something new. I hope to see a lot of new in 2026, and that’s my main prediction - people taking advantage of these opportunities. Second – I don’t have a big AI prediction here, but that’s not because I don’t think gigantic things will happen around AI and media. There’s just too much happening there already, and too much being said about it all, for me to add much new right now, but I’ve mixed some minor AI things into the items below. So, here we go, and first up are a few predictions:

WBD Inaction

My one wild swing for predictions for 2026 is that neither Netflix nor Paramount will win the bidding wars for WBD. Most people seem to be betting that Larry Ellison’s coziness with the orange man will seal the deal, while others think Sarandos has put together a stellar team to win him over (it’s all about who he approves), but I think there’s more than enough problems with both offers that we’ll see more regulatory hurdles than expected, and enough dithering by Zaslav and the WBD board that the deals fall apart. My bet is that a couple of new suitors come into the picture towards the latter half of the year, and that Zaslav will have to keep the multiple WBD plates spinning in the air for a bit longer. I haven’t seen this prediction almost anywhere else, but the tail-end of a recent Holman Jenkins Op-Ed hints at this outcome as well. I was talking to someone about this last night, and told him my real prediction – a hybrid deal from some major AI company, a 10% stake from the US government (forced by the man), some Middle East funding, and a batch of Kushner friends.

M&A & Roll-Ups

I predict this almost every year, and some years bring more M&A action than others. Aside from Max, however, we should see a lot of them in the more indie/arthouse world. I suspect we’ll see some M&A and/or roll-up activity involving arthouse distributors, exhibitors, maybe even a couple of the for-profit film festivals, and definitely in the world of production companies (the latter being a poor investment, as there’s no there, there for a while longer). As I wrote this, I learned that a new AI-centric company bought BrandStorytelling (see below for more), and I suspect we’ll see a lot of M&A activity in the overall brand storytelling space, and maybe we’ll see some brands acquiring IP, platforms, creator studios and more, and of course – I suspect an AI company will buy a major or mini-studio in 2026 (maybe even WBD).

Advertising Backlash Begins

Every streamer has embraced advertising to make more money. Analysts are even predicting that Apple will add it to their service this year. And reports seem to show that consumers don’t mind – they just want more free stuff, ads be damned. Maybe. But remember, we started down this whole streaming path mainly because… consumers hated ads. People cut the cord for a reason. I get The Onion in print (yes, you can do that), and this issue, they ran an “ad” making fun of Amazon Prime’s ads. They’re always a step ahead of the zeitgeist, speaking to underlying truths, and they’ve pegged the upcoming backlash. Not that this will change anything, mind you. All of these platforms (old and new) need revenue, and advertising has always been the lazy way to add some zeros to your income statement, but that also, always comes with a dumbing down of the brand, and your core audiences notice it first. By the time the rest of your team notices it, you’ve gone from being Bravo, a network dedicated to the fine arts, to Bravo!, one dedicated to “reality TV.” Success in someone’s world, I guess.

The Culture War Continues

For some reason, folks in my feed seem to think we’ve just survived the administration’s attacks on media/the press, public media, the arts, DEI, etc. and are somehow rounding some bend. We are just barely at the start. In 2026, the attacks on all that’s good and decent will intensify and you can bet they will mostly succeed. The attacks on the press are a given – here’s a great article on that from Monika Bauerlein, the CEO of the Center for Investigative Reporting in the NiemanLab predictions (a worthy read of multiple takes on 2026). But I also expect to see more attacks on public media – mainly by targeting the remaining stations/outlets with direct lawsuits for some other “breach” having to do with continuing to fund DEI and other “woke” policies. The attacks on museums picked up again in earnest just this week, with the Smithsonian first in the cross-hairs. The foundation attacks will intensify, with places like Ford, MacArthur and others getting dragged into hearings, and with a big push to end their tax status in some manner. This will likely start to hit adjacent progressive funders of media – think impact funders, private foundations and family funds who support anything you might like. The self-censorship as a result will be just as damaging. For those of you looking for donor support for your programs – be it as an arts organization or a filmmaker looking for grants – it’s only going to get harder. Stick with it but be prepared.

FilmStack Wobbles

Have you read so and so’s new Substack article on something about the state of film? I get asked this almost hourly now, it seems. Most would think this is a sign of growth. If everyone is sending and posting links, it must be working, right? Well, maybe, but maybe not, although just suggesting anything negative here will probably send me more hate mail/posts than usual. But outside of the echoing bubble of the Stack, I keep hearing more comments from people I meet with who are disengaging, losing interest, being overwhelmed with subscriptions and underwhelmed by actual values, or who feel it’s becoming a little bit of a self-referencing circle. One reason I’ve been posting less here on my (non-Substack) blog/newsletter, is that I was beginning to feel part of that merry-go-round. For me, that caused me to step back a bit from the conversation. I predict that in 2026, many of the good writers will do the same, either from burn-out, or because they see less ROI on their own investment, even if that’s just time (a few are already grumbling about increased subscribers coming with less engagement). I also think this is true of Substack more broadly, and think we’ve long passed peak-stack (caused mainly by pushing traffic over engagement) and their recent investors just don’t know it yet. To be clear – I don’t see the death of either Filmstack or Substack in 2026, but I do see the hype dying down, and disinterest spreading. That said, this also brings opportunity. I think there’s still room for a few new super sharp, insightful players (and I know of at least one writer who I can’t wait to read that is launching a new publication soon), who can take our field’s conversation in new directions.

Now for some trends, all of which have been ongoing, but will greatly influence what happens in 2026.

Curation vs Production

The only money being spent in the independent documentary world is coming from three places – 1) platforms licensing docs that might bring them an Academy Award; 2) these same platforms, and (often undistributed) documentary filmmakers spending even more money on quixotic FYC campaigns; and 3) brands funding documentaries because they seem easy, and/or they’ve been sold an idea by a production company who can’t sell it to a streamer and they don’t know that the market for (non-Academy contender) docs is dead. Otherwise, the streamers are mainly commissioning work, and most of it remains in the celebrity, serial killer, and sensationalistic vein. One could argue that the rest of the doc space has been abandoned, and this is becoming even more true for short form documentaries. This leads to an entire set of opportunities for smart brands, funders (foundations, investors, donors) and smaller publications to own certain sub-genres in the doc space. But I’m not arguing for more production of such docs – there are more than enough being made already. Smart money should focus on curation (as always) and aim to own certain niches. Pick a niche – sports, outdoors, arts & culture, character-studies, or even a sub-niche – running, cycling, upcoming artists – and build a brand around it. This can include licensing completed or near completed works, running news and other journalism on the subject, hosting podcasts on the same vertical, and of course, hosting fests and events dedicated to the same. The opportunities here are near endless, and so is the supply of both films and interested audiences. 

You know where else there’s been a lot of interest and opportunity lately? Repertoire cinema. Arthouse theaters are selling out screenings, rare prints are in demand from archives big and small, and they are all the rage with TikTok and Letterboxd fans. You know who’s been relatively absent from this phenomenon? Brands. Talk about a golden sponsorship opportunity just waiting for a smart brand to step-in, or for multiple brands to own through smart partnerships and curation (much like the short idea above).

This is just one other area where smart money will look towards curation and exhibition over production in 2026. This is one of the most fertile areas for exploration of new business models and new ways to break through the noise and stand out from the crowd in 2026. I don’t predict that everyone will move into this space in 2026, but the smart folks will think less about making new films/series/media and focus more on being a trusted source curator in these spaces.

Together

The other big trend of the past year – or longer- which will become a much bigger deal in 2026 is the value of bringing people together IRL around shared interests and experiences. People are going to those repertory films mentioned above in groups – to share an experience. Unplugging and getting together IRL has become such a phenomenon among the younger crowd that there’s a new news story about it almost daily. Run clubs, book clubs, concerts and events, going to (very good, or very cult, or very “big”) movies at the theater; workshops, meeting up in coffee shops – or going on a trip together to learn about coffee roasting, and using digital media to find “real world” things to do instead of doom-scrolling – those are the new trends. But it can’t just be the same old experience; it needs to be special, an event. This will only amplify as people get sick of an AI mediated world, and as we seek others to commiserate as we ride out what seems like the end of the world at times. 

Again, the win here is not in media production – although making movies together is a great thing to do, but in curation and making film/video screenings into must-attend events. Arthouses are doing alright by this with screenings, and so are the better film fests. But we need more year-round, in-person activities. We still don’t really have the equivalent of a Reese’s Book Club for films. Why not? I went halfway around the country to attend the Outside Fest (now Outside Days) this past Summer and would gladly do a smaller version of that monthly. This is another area just full of business opportunities for the right brand, organization or smart entrepreneur in 2026.

Hyperlocal

I’ve mentioned this for at least 20 years now, but a curious thing about digital is that the more it erases borders, the more it also makes hyperlocal connections even more important. We can more easily connect with those who share the same interests anywhere in the world, sure, but it’s often better to connect with someone near you who might want that precious item which you’re giving away for free on Buy Nothing, which in NYC can be as hyper-targeted as my ten-block neighborhood. As more people seek out more connections in physical space, they’ll be looking for personalized and trusted recommendations. 

They’re also increasingly going to need local news – an area being cut back by both mainstream news, and now by public media due to severe cuts this past year. And by news, I don’t just mean hard news, but also local reporting on sports, arts, culture, and other “soft” news. Of course, much of the hyper-local space has been left behind by the media, brands/advertisers, and in too many places, it’s even been left behind by local government itself. This is another trend that brings a lot of opportunity. Whether you’re a creator who might make more localized content, a filmmaker looking for interesting stories or audiences to watch them, a media organization looking to serve an underrepresented group, or a smaller brand wanting to define yourself to a customer, it might be best to think local. This doesn’t mean one needs to think small, either. There’s great value in connecting hyper-local scenes on a national, or even international scale – think of better ways to connect with local fans of genre cinema wherever you might be traveling this week (much like we can find recommendations for restaurants now).

I’ll go one step further into what might seem like crazy land and predict that ’26 is also going to see a resurgence of experimentation and activity in an area of media most of us have forgotten – local public-access media. Think Manhattan Neighborhood Network in NYC, for example, where new leadership is redefining what it means to serve your local community, and where conversations are already underway about how they might partner with other like-minded centers in major urban centers across the US to have greater impact (these conversations are also happening in other parts of public media). This might not seem sexy at first glance – Robin Byrd jokes aside - but under-the-radar trends seldom jump out at first. Oh and this year’s Sundance features Public Access, a new documentary on this history, which might just reignite interest in this space in the New Year.

Low- to Mid-Tier (Budget) Narrative Resurgence

It’s been a tough few years for low to mid-tier budgeted indie narrative films. Not that anyone stopped making them, but almost everyone stopped buying them, which meant less sales, less success, and less sustainability for an important part of the sector. This is where we usually get our discoveries. Over the past year, we’ve seen some action in the $10 million+ range, but even at that level, it’s been tough to find many success stories. As I wrote a few months ago, I’ve also met with multiple producers who have moved into micro-budget production – those $250K range projects, but often for films that had been budgeted at $2-5M just a few years ago. That’s not sustainable, either. But with a few new distributors having launched in the past year, and with people getting anxious about the space, I think we’ll see some new producers and/or new funds built around slates of sub-$5-Million narrative features in 2026. Many of these will be figuring out some angle to do international co-productions, as that’s a source of funding and often a ticket to good international fest premieres. I also think smart brands will partner in this space (per the above, hopefully more in the curation and/or distribution side of things, and as marketing partners), and we might just see a couple of platforms launching new divisions, like the recently announced label on WBD – if for nothing else than convincing anti-trust enforcers that they still support smaller films (yes, I’m cynical).

The Creator Take-Over

This one pretty much took place years ago, in the grand scheme of things (interest, attention, money, cross-over), but 2026 will be the year that those creators making ambitious films become the new indie auteur movement. Much like the 90s wave coming out of Sundance, we’ll see more creator auteurs getting traction with the arthouse crowd, but this won’t be about them just getting more acceptance from the film fest world, or Hollywood, but about building new paradigms where they stay connected to their fans and their natural home – YouTube - while simultaneously finding success in other spheres. A good place to follow this phenomenon, by the way, is the Open Gardens: OG Approved newsletter, which is run by accomplished film folks who track upcoming creators. The biggest sale of the year won’t be some film out of Sundance selling to A24, but some film on YouTube (or Patreon, or Substack, or Punchup, or…) selling to their fans, and then also selling to Netflix for a premium, shorter window, more aligned with their terms and interests.

Them’s my thoughts. Send me yours.