January 16, 2025
Survive til 25 they’ve been saying. Well, we’re here. How are you feeling? I’ve got to admit, just surviving 2025 seems ambitious, especially considering the tragedy in Los Angeles (and of course, there are tragedies in many other places around the world, but for this newsletter, that’s the most recent). I can barely fathom the immensity of what people are facing there, and many others are speaking more eloquently than me about all of this already, so I am turning my attention to the year ahead, while acknowledging that for many people, thinking too far ahead is too much right now.
I don’t really believe in predictions, but I’ve been known to throw out a few over the years. I looked back at last year’s predictions and trends article, and I was mostly right. Which was a surprise, because in past years my success rate has been as low as one out of ten. But last year, I called it on the election, the ongoing decrease in streamer’s buying of quality films, and many other good and bad things. Anyway, as others have said (often attributed to Alan Kay) - the best way to predict the future is to invent it. I recommend that course of action in 2025, but given that I do write a newsletter about where things are going… here’s some thoughts on what I expect to see in 2025 – not just predictions, but also some ongoing and emerging trends that can lead to success.
The one thing I missed last year, was that I predicted a lot of M&A activity, and that didn’t happen to the extent I imagined, but I’m betting on it again for 2025. I’m not alone in this prediction, as it’s been written about everywhere and for every kind of business. People expect a very business-friendly environment under this administration, and there’s a lot of money looking to be deployed (dry powder). In the film industry, there are too many small, struggling players, and a lot of platforms with no chance of achieving the scale needed to compete. Arguably, audiences are being underserved by this situation – small doesn’t always equate to good, it can also mean no one can find your films or figure out that your platform even exists. Some scale is needed to compete, and I can’t wait to see who makes moves this year. Smart players will consider “roll-ups” across sectors of the industry – combining production, sales, distribution, exhibition, streaming, and maybe even a festival into one bigger player.
I would predict that Letterboxd will be part of that M&A activity, either being acquired or acquiring another company, but they’ve proven themselves to find success via slow growth and methodical planning. So instead, I predict they’ll cross 30 million users by the end of 2025, proving (as does Keri Putnam’s study mentioned again below) that there’s a much bigger audience for quality films than that which is being served by our disparate distribution systems. They’ve just surpassed 17 million users, which is huge growth from around 11 million last year. They’re probably the only company in the business that knows its audience intimately, and that audience is the core audience for every film getting made. That’s valuable data. I was initially a skeptic of this company back in the day – but I’ve become bullish on them as they’ve smartly built a sizable and active community that matters. That makes it attractive for their owner, Tiny, to acquire some adjacent businesses and put that data to work.
There are two main things to remember about Letterboxd – they’re laser focused on the audience, and serving their audience’s needs; and they have also built a cult brand. Those are their keys to success, and anyone else operating in media should be thinking the same way about their business. Surprisingly, very few film companies do either of these things. Of the majors, only Disney has really built its brand into something resembling a known brand, and for some it is a cult-like brand. A24 definitely did this, but as they’ve started to grow, they’re losing some of that edge. Edglrd and Angel Studios are doing this for particular niche audiences, and Tubi is doing it quite well in the AVOD/FAST space and with diverse audiences. Metrograph wants to do this, but hasn’t quite pulled it off yet.
Mubi is attempting this, and my related prediction, which is more of an acknowledgement of the present situation than anything forthcoming, is that Mubi will finally replace A24 completely as the king of cool. They’re making big moves, with their recent The Substance success, and the hiring of (former IFC Films head) Arianna Bocco. I suspect they’ll be involved in more acquisitions (of companies, not just films) this year (they’ve been active in the recent past, too). But again, the reason for this success is building a cult brand and focusing on their core audience.
There are a lot of business plans and decks floating around that mention that US Audience Study from Keri Putnam, mentioned above. I suspect we’ll see a lot of new businesses focused on new ways to serve indie films to bigger audiences, joining platforms like Gathr, Kinema and Jolt (some of which are new, and others have been around for a long time). But, most of them will be focused on the industry’s problems – that Pay One deals from streamers have disappeared, that docs aren’t working at the box office or on streaming, etc. – and as a result, they’ll fail. The ones that succeed will follow that advice from above – focus on the audience’s problem, and solving that for them, and building an awesome brand, if not a cult-brand. By the way, a lot of brands keep moving into the film and storytelling world (more on that below), but most of them are just doing this to be fresh and on-trend. Smart ones will keep that same focus – building their brand, and focusing on what the audience wants, not what they want – it’s the key to their success as well.
Know what else differentiates Letterboxd from others, and taps into a trend everyone should be following? It’s participatory. Users are active contributors and get value out of that participation. The entire film business has been ignoring this cultural phenomenon, mainly to its peril. Those who embrace participatory culture in their practice and business models are the ones who will succeed. I’ve written about this many times before, especially here, and what I said then remains even more true today:
“What folks need to understand is that participatory culture isn’t just one trend – it’s a definitive part of who we are today. It’s what people expect. Just like we live in an attention economy, we now live in a participatory culture. The more you – or your company, or your art – embraces this part of our culture, the more success you are likely to achieve. […] and what I think anyone who is creating anything new for film should be considering now – how do I make this more participatory? The better you answer that question, the better your odds of success today.”
Their general embrace of participatory culture is just one of the many reasons that the creator economy will continue to boom in 2025, and more traditional film companies, filmmakers and brands will embrace it more fully. Again, this is not as much of a prediction as it is an acknowledgement of our current reality, but I feel like most of the film industry ignores this altogether. If you aren’t fully up to speed on the creator economy and its importance, skip me and go read you some Evan Shapiro, starting here. I agree with him that 2025 will be the year that everyone wakes up to the fact that the creator-sphere is bigger than Hollywood, and more influential – and just as equal in the minds of the audience. Anyone and everyone in the media world needs to stop looking down on it and embrace it. That doesn’t mean every filmmaker needs to start a podcast or try to be an influencer on Red Note (little Red Book, the new TikTok apparently, according to Karin Chien and the NYT), although many should do just that. But it does mean that figuring out how you fit into the creator economy, and how you can merge it into your business plan, needs to be part of your future planning. For example, firing your publicist, ignoring whether you get a NYT (or any other mainstream press) review for your film, and redirecting all of that energy into getting mentioned by influential film lovers on TikTok, Letterboxd and elsewhere wouldn’t be a bad strategy these days. Not kidding.
You know what else isn’t a bad idea for the film world? Paying a lot more attention to tech, specifically, AI, Crypto and what everyone lumps into Web3 ideas. Yeah, sure, we read about how AI might take over the industry every day of the week, but what’s surprising to me is that I can still go to a film fest and speak on or listen to a panel about the “future of film,” or I can sit in a pitch meeting where someone talks about their new film business or solution, or release plan, and those words never cross their lips. Ever. It blows my mind. I can count on one hand the people I can turn to for good thinking about these subjects when it comes to film and entertainment, and all of them are just as flabbergasted by this phenomenon as I am, because everyone else we know – those not “in” the industry – are speaking about it daily. Heck, you can’t read political news, post-election, and not know that Crypto is king again, but not when it comes to the film world. It would take me three or four newsletter posts to even touch on the changes about to hit us in 2025, and I bet I’d still be missing half of the important things. Every day, I see a new video online that purports to show the future of AI filmmaking, or an article about the jobs it might kill, or assist. But when I chat with film folks about festivals, curation, making my Netflix queue, or building my production schedule or DOOD report, or distribution reports, or heck – social media postings and plans – no one seems to realize all of this will be done by my AI agent – and yours – and a lot of things are about to change. Same with how we think about copyright, or the future of what public media means, or how micro-payments might influence archival usage, or… like I said, I’d need a few more posts. Could we at last have one festival panel that actually digs into this more? Or maybe a trade publication report that isn’t just about the doom and gloom aspects? Expect more here, because… I expect more.
This gets me to my next trend/prediction – disruption. Disruption is the name of the game in 2025, and only disruptive ideas will thrive. All of the above, especially the latter ideas, will disrupt the entire nature of the artform and the business. But further than that – we have been disrupted already and a lot of people/businesses don’t realize it yet (smell = opportunity). As I repeatedly state – everything is now up for grabs. The center does not hold. Tell me today the five things you hold true about film as an art or a business, and I bet you won’t find them true come December, and as the year flips to ’26 you’ll realize they weren’t true now, either. (Leaving aside obvious ones, like story matters, etc.) So, realizing we are in an age of disruption is step one. Step two is embracing it, and step three – if you want to thrive – is being one of the disrupters.
We were onboarding a relatively new client the other day, and they became my favorite one when I asked them what differentiated them from their competition. Their answer – that they thrive on disruption, and that it’s how they approach their work. They are constantly questioning the status quo, and don’t just look for new answers, but new questions. Lots of companies can say this, few do say it, and even fewer act on it.
Here's another prediction that stems from that, and which won’t be popular but fits my definition of disruption to a tee - Sundance won’t be Sundance anymore. Don’t kill me. First, it won’t be in Park City for long anymore – technically, they have another year on their lease, but they will announce where they are staying/moving in February, and they’ve already made it clear that at best it will be more Salt Lake City based than Park City, and at worst (sorry Ohio) it will be Cincinnati. Boulder is the third option, and the one that everyone I know wants (me three.. thousand), but I think they’re just naïve enough to not realize that destination matters (for sponsors, especially), and will go with whoever pays top dollar and we might be talking about how unique their chili is soon. I know many hope that a move will also revitalize things, and maybe reconfigure how we think about the fest. That’s the best case scenario, of course, but that will still be a very different Sundance than what we know now.
But a move isn’t what concerns me. What none of the bidders realize, and I hate to say this because some of my best film friends work there, is – Sundance doesn’t matter that way anymore. I don’t think most of the industry will realize this in 2025, and to be clear, I don’t think they’re going to disappear. My prediction here is that we will look back in five years and realize that Sundance started mattering a lot less maybe in 2021, at the height of Covid, and it never came back as that top destination, probably never will, and someone else is already taking the mantle, but none of us started to notice it until 2025, when the move question came to the forefront. The more disruptive fest honchos at other locations – or those who want to become one – will realize that any fest can rethink what a festival is now and claim the title of best of shows. This also holds true for every other major film festival except Cannes. Film people are too enamored with the French language and culture, and writing off a trip to the French Riviera to give that one up anytime soon. But for every other major film fest (I think this is less true for your standard, quality regional fest), this is a time to radically rethink what a festival is now. That’s a good thing, even for Sundance, because those who rethink their mission will help redefine the festival landscape starting in 2025.
PBS won’t be PBS anymore, either. The last time I barely mentioned the upcoming threats to public media in the US and abroad, I got an earful from everyone. Which told me what? That I was onto something. Sure, we’re gonna fight the good fight. We’ve been here before. But… Fred Rogers can’t take the stand anymore, and it wouldn’t matter if he did. Can you imagine? Musk would be making fun of his cardigan on X. Public media broadly, and PBS specifically, will NOT end in 2025, that is not my prediction. But it will be changed by its response to these threats, and it won’t ever be the same, and we’ll start to see what routes it can take during 2025. This matters because the reality is, even in the age of YouTube and the Creator Economy, the media is dominated by what appeals to advertisers - that’s why everyone’s chasing views and listens, because they’re chasing sponsorships. But that leaves a lot of voices unheard and populations unserved – of all political stripes. The key to arguing for the value of public media in the US and abroad is going to be uniting unusual allies (politically) who all need a non-commercial outlet for high quality media. But that’s also what the current administration doesn’t want, and they’re more hellbent on attacking it than ever before. And the usual forces that come to the rescue might well be too afraid of ruffling feathers, or be too enamored with new ideas, to lead the charge. Think I’m wrong? Well, I hope so too, because there’s nothing I want more than a revitalized public media in our future, but this year is gonna be a fight. We need to think very strategically about how we collaborate, across the aisle, to ensure its robust future.
While we’re in feel the pain mode, my next to last prediction is no more fun – Film Jobs are not coming back, however you want to define that – industry at large; independents; studio/streamer jobs; below-the-line jobs; those in LA (even pre-catastrophe); as producers (big or small); entry-level; and so on. We will see more layoffs, more giving-up, more relocations in search of newer or different pastures. We won’t see any recovery, in any sector, except just maybe junior awards publicists – because if one thing is clear, it’s that people won’t give up on Quixotic awards quests for their films anytime soon (being a bartender at Awards-favorite venues is a very safe job, btw). But that’s as depressing as anyone can handle, me included, so I’ll leave this one alone for now. What we do need – some political leadership and plans, because this is not an unsizable population, and there are policies that could mitigate or reverse the damage, but only if we can make the very true case of how this issue cuts across class and political persuasions.
Last – some good news again, with my last predictions. Brands will up their game in 2025 when it comes to storytelling in all forms of media, but especially films and series, and I hope, when it comes to rethinking distribution and marketing. This trend already started in 2024, and we’ve seen many Hollywood names enter the space to capitalize on it, too. But as the space gets more crowded, making a cute little video for your YouTube channel, or paying to get your feel-good feature on Roku won’t cut it anymore. The keys to success here are really simple but rarely utilized. For my brand friends – think bigger. Bigger budgets, bigger risk taking, bigger and better storytelling. Focus on what the audience wants, not what your CFO wants, as those two will meet in the future if you do it right. Note that what your audience really wants is not always the same as what Netflix wants (or any other major streamer), and you might have to reach your audience in different ways. Also, take a look at what the streamers are programming, or what’s succeeding in the Creator Economy – it’s not what most brands are making, so smart brands won’t follow the crowd in what they commission. It’s time for all of us to up our game.
But I also predict that a few really smart brands will think even bigger. Everyone secretly wants to be a director, so they keep making films. But we’ve got a glut of “content” and audiences can’t find anything they want to watch. Discovery is a huge issue. People want smart curators they can trust. Your “cult” brand might just be serving a niche no one else is serving, too. The opportunities lie in the juncture of these things. I predict that in 2025, we’ll see a brand becoming a platform, probably by buying a streamer. But this could also be done by buying or building a festival, or even better, doing both, and becoming the “hub” for your audience. Only a handful of brands have the means to do this, and I won’t name them here, but almost any brand can take this as a starting point for dreaming big, and then land somewhere lower than that, but bigger than where they’d be if they just focus on making the same old stuff. But I’ll also note that I hinted at such a prediction last year, and while brands did up their game, none went as far as I’d hoped.
Those are my predictions and trends for 2025. I may be wrong on some or all of them, but I am pretty sure that disruption being the name of the game is correct, so I’d focus your attention on what that means for yourself, your business and the field if you want to invent a better future than what I’ve predicted. As always, if you’ve read this far, drop me a line and let me know what you predict.
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Film
 The Celluloid Ceiling: A new report, The Celluloid Ceiling, authored by Martha Lauzen, executive director of the Center for the Study of Women in Television and Film at San Diego State University, analyzed the top 250 highest-grossing films of 2024 and found that women’s employment was abysmally low. Key findings as summarized by Forbes’ Kim Elsesser are: (1) “In 2021, women reached a high point, making up 25% of… behind-the-scenes roles in top-grossing films. But by 2024, that figure slipped to 23%”; (2) Women helped 18% of top-grossing films in 2018 and 2022, but that figure dropped to 16% this past year; (3) “In films with a woman director, 52% of writers were women—an impressive leap from the mere 12% in male-directed projects. Editing rooms followed a similar trend, with women making up 27% of editors on these sets, compared to just 17% under male leadership. And… women comprised a remarkable 34% of cinematographers on films directed by women, far outpacing the meager 5% seen on male-directed productions.” In the top 100 films, women made up 14% of composers for movies directed by women, double the 7% in male-directed films. The takeaway: Women’s progress behind the camera has stalled, to say the least, and as the data demonstrates, “having women in the director's chair clearly creates ripple effects that draw more women into key roles across the filmmaking process.” (GSH)
Things To See If You’re In NYC: If you’re in New York City, catch the MOMA’s 21st “To Save and Project” international festival of film preservation which runs until January 30. It showcases newly preserved or restored versions of over 25 feature films and shorts, includes major rediscoveries of long-lost films and seldom-seen Chaplin works, screens silent films alongside live piano accompaniment, and features a conversation between cartoonist, filmmaker and country music preservationist Heather McAdams and curator Sophie Cavoulacos on January 27th. More details at Jane Levere’s article for Forbes. (GSH)
Gains For Letterboxd are Great For Indies: Letterboxd, the social platform for sharing tastes in film is not only growing massively in size, but it's also establishing itself as one of the most important tools for independent film in an oversaturated landscape with fragmented audiences. In 2020, Letterboxd had 1.8 million members, in 2023 it jumped to 11.4 , and in 2024 it hit a whopping 17 million. Now, a new member joins Letterboxd every 5 seconds. In addition to fostering a rich community of cinephiles who can engage with films and each other (ie. create recommendation lists like “Netflix Movies That Are Actually Good”…etc) Letterboxd is a key driver of the indie box office: Distributors frequently cite the platform when opening a film theatrically (A24 recently gave them a shout-out for their strong limited debut of “The Brutalist.” Read Jill Goldsmith’s piece for Deadline to find out more about how the platform and its community is reinvigorating filmmakers and film-lovers, and check out Letterboxd’s year in review for the full picture. (GSH)
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Branded Content
Sub-Genre's 2024 In Review: We had a great 2024 at Sub-Genre with our brand clients and many filmmakers. So, we made a little tribute video to showcase the year - launching in the New Year, and a little late, as we held it back a beat due to recent events. But I'm very proud of what our little team and our clients have accomplished, and what's in store for 2025.
We just help - with strategy and distribution - the real work is done by the filmmakers, and the brand teams. Big shout out to all of our clients and check out the end of the video for some hints of what's to come in 2025. And of course, a big thanks to the Sub-Genre core team as well - Jordana Meade, Nate Hageman, Danellys Wong (who made the video), and Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman.
Fight Fire With Community: While not just brand/film news, our good friends at BrandStorytelling have put together a fundraiser for Los Angeles. They quickly partnered with the LAFD Foundation on a fundraiser that promises some donations, matching funds and support. There are many great causes dedicated now to the recovery, but if you're in the brand/story world and looking for a way to be supportive, head over here and learn more about how to get involved. (BN)
How A TikTok Ban Will Affect Gen Z And The Brands They Trust: The U.S Supreme Court Ruling on the TikTok ban will likely take place this month. Nataly Kelly, CMO of consumer insights platform Zappi, argues that the fate of the platform will have major effects for Gen Z consumers and the brands they trust. First, some notes about Gen Z and TikTok based on a Zappi survey: (1) Gen Z are much more likely to use TikTok as a news source (51%) than check a news org (28%); (2) 39% of Gen Zers oppose a TikTok ban; (3) Nearly half of Gen Zers reported spending over 3 hours a day on the app; (4) 86% of Gen Zers say brands should take a stand on social and political issues and take action. Kelly’s major takeaways are that “Eliminating access to such an important outlet could galvanize… [Gen Z] to become more socially and politically involved… [and] companies will be forced to consider how to appeal to Gen Z consumers in new spaces where cultural and political conversations will begin to take place.” She also cautions that “Gen Z consumers will sniff out a brand that roots for their town square’s [TikTok’s] downfall behind closed doors and beckons them into new ones. Get the details at Kelly’s piece for The Drum. (GSH)
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Miscellany:
Retirement Advice (and wisdom about Social Security) from an Expert: While this has nothing to do with film, really, all of us can use good retirement advice, and that's what Alicia Munnell gives in a kind of "exit interview" with the NYT as she leaves the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. But the reason I'm linking to this interview is not about retirement, but because she explains why you - and young people generally - shouldn't be worried about Social Security disappearing, and how it can be fixed, which is a must-read as there's always been misinformation swirling about that issue. (BN)
2025 Predictions Of AI in TV: Adweek asked 15 TV executives, ad sales leaders, and insiders to share their boldest predictions on how AI will impact the TV industry in 2025. Here’re some that stood out: (1) “Streaming platforms will introduce homescreen chatbots that will recommend content to watch and will eventually offer ads (Dani Benowitz, global and U.S. president, Magna)”; (2) “AI will enable intelligent ad insertion in every piece of content that is developed or ever has been developed (Kim Kelleher, chief commercial officer, AMC Networks)”; (3) “I asked an AI chatbot… and it referenced “hyper-personalized TV experiences,” including interactive storytelling, instant content creation, and micro-niche targeting (John Halley, president, Paramount Advertising)”; “AI will fundamentally reshape how brands connect with consumers. … AI’s ability to connect brands to highly actionable audience segments that drive sales (Michael Scott, vp, head of ad sales, operations of North America, Samsung Ads).” (GSH)
GSH = Articles written by Sub-Genre's Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman, not Brian Newman (BN)
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