April 3, 2025
Last week I was in Copenhagen for CPH:DOX, which has arguably become the top doc film fest in the world. In fact, people argue about that all the time – perhaps that title should still go to IDFA in Amsterdam, or Sundance because of its impact on the US market, but the consensus among those I spoke with was firmly with CPH:DOX. While there, I gave a talk about Ten Trends for the Future of Film, and many people have contacted me to ask for a video or summary of the talk. I’m going to hold off on that for now, because my talk was an updated version of this post from June, 2024, and I plan to update those thoughts further and post them later this Summer. Instead, here are my take-aways about the current state of the business from this year’s CPH:DOX.
Key takeaways:
- Lower Budgets: These budgets are not American. Across the board, budgets being proposed from filmmakers were dramatically lower than what you see being proposed by US doc producers. Sure, some of these producers are in countries where the costs might be lower, but US folks should learn from these examples, because the current doc marketplace is not able to sustain the higher budgets we’ve been accustomed to in the US. This is a topic of conversation behind many closed doors in the US, but we need to have it in the open, because as the economy crashes soon, budgets will need to go down even more.
- No Streamers. The streamers didn’t show up. A couple were listed on panels, but no one seemed to see any of them there, or in meetings. Hundreds of filmmaking teams with promising projects showed up to a packed (Opera) house for the Forum, but streaming buyers couldn’t bother. That should tell you a lot about the state of the market, but somehow every filmmaker is still dreaming of that big Netflix deal. As I, and others, have said many times elsewhere – they aren’t here, and they aren’t coming back.
- “Low Capacity” countries are not. A lot of Europeans seemed to use the term “low-capacity” to refer to their partners making films in countries with less financial resources – read, the Global South for the most part. But as many of those same filmmakers pointed out – they have plenty of artistic capacity, and other resources, if not as much capital available for filmmaking. And some of the most artistically interesting films were (of course) being proposed by these same countries. It was quite refreshing to see so many non-US and non-Western perspectives, especially as the major streamers embrace the lowest common denominator.
- Co-Productions Are All the Rage (again/as always). Co-Production has always been a bit of the norm in international film financing, especially for documentaries. This is not something Americans can easily tap into (even if it’s not always impossible), so we don’t talk about it much here. But for a little while, during the streaming boom, there was a bit of an international shift, where producers could get all their financing from a major streamer and/or take the risk and make a sale. That’s changed, everywhere, and people are back to creative financing through cross-border collaboration and co-production. With public broadcasters involved, this is also a mechanism to get more political films made – they tend to be less censorious (usually?). And there was even a lot of talk about three new avenues – mechanisms to co-produce with American indies, as everyone can see the need for outside perspectives on the US given our political changes; involving brands in co-productions, because we all need new sources of funding and marketing; and the idea that perhaps there are co-production models to explore within the US, between like-minded State funders, as well. Expect to hear more on all of these here soon.
- Equitable Co-Pros Are Needed. At the same time, there’s been a history of a very colonial approach to international co-productions, especially when it’s been between filmmakers from the Global South and European coproducers. A great panel was put together on this subject, and I had dinner with the participants the night before and learned a lot from that conversation and the panel. Bottom line- coproductions need to focus on the Co- part of the equation, and respect the creative input of the partners, and also realize that costs are not always equal to contributions. A good place to start on thinking of this is the EAVE Think Tank Report on this subject (links to PDF), which moderator Emile Hertling Péronard (a producer from Greenland/Denmark, and new friend) helped develop. There were also horror stories from producers of disrespect from co-production partners – many so bad that I can’t repeat them here, but most came from elitist producers who had zero interest in the creative input of their partners, and who were essentially “using” them to access funding for such projects – and/or for awards.
- Market Costs Need to be Addressed. Along these same lines, the entire industry needs to think about the way markets work. I love what CPH:DOX is doing with the Forum, but that event, and others like it around the world, rely on filmmakers to pay their own way to attend, in the hopes of pitching their projects and getting funding. This is not equitable for many filmmakers, and especially not in the current soft marketplace, where the ROI might not be direct, if at all. This is not the fault of these fest organizers, but of the entire system, and I doubt it will change anytime soon, which is a shame.
- Art, politics, heavy subjects – any film about anything that matters must be made outside the US, but it also might not be seen here. One of my “ten trends” was censorship – we’re seeing it a ton in the US, but It’s happening globally. That said, if you want to make anything remotely political (that isn’t also sensational), or anything too artistic, or… well, interesting… you’re likely going to find your funding, creative partners, and distribution outside of the US. Unfortunately, those same films probably need to be seen (especially) by American audiences, and very few distributors will take a chance on them, or they will actively self-censor and not program them, and/or assume the audience has no interest (which is likely not true, but sometimes I do wonder). If you want to be seen in the US, don’t count on a sale here – or even film fests, to be honest – explore alternative distribution routes, because the US is closed for serious business for the foreseeable future.
- Not that anyone wants to come here – Anti-US sentiment high. As should be apparent to anyone with a brain-cell, we are f-k’d. Two years ago, no one at CPH:DOX or any other international fest wanted to talk about US politics; this year, it was inescapable. You couldn’t eat breakfast without someone giving you the failing democracy scorecard (as another filmmaker explained it to me) each morning. And in a place like Denmark – very attuned to what’s happening in Greenland, and what Putin might be doing nearby, the shock was palpable. And no one, not a single person I spoke with, is going to spend a single dime visiting here – for tourism or for business, and they’re getting pretty angry. While you’re already seeing reports on this from tourism folks in NYC, Florida and other tourist-meccas in the US, I imagine that many of the bigger US festivals are going to notice a big drop in foreign attendance this coming year. Not that we don’t have bigger problems, of course, but this one will have ripple-effects.
- Brand funding is embraced. A few years ago, I’d visit international film fests and I was like an extraterrestrial being. No one had heard of brand funding, or would think of working with a brand. Now, some of the more established producers had brand divisions, and everyone wanted to figure out how to tap into brand funding, or figure out how to bring the concept to potential clients. Of course, the flipside of this trend is that producers are desperate for any new source of funding, as government and broadcast funding gets cut. Regardless, brand funding is on the map in the international marketplace. But… only one of our clients attended the event (and they were the only brand I found there), and only a few of our brand clients asked me to look at projects being pitched. Most brands originate (commission) projects themselves, but as the sector changes, there are a lot of opportunities for smart brands to get more heavily involved with certain sectors (I’d start with the arts and culture projects, not the political ones, for most brands), and there are numerous opportunities around new audiences and distribution – as most people should expect me to tell them by now.
Those were my main take-aways from CPH:DOX. I still can’t definitively say whether the state of the field is good or bad; it felt pretty mid. Somehow, the beast limps along. Films are getting made, business is somehow getting done. Audiences are showing up in the festival’s theaters, even if they aren’t showing up elsewhere, and even if they’ll have trouble finding these films later. We talk about a field in crisis, but everyone is showing up for business as usual. This is the new normal, or perhaps we’re just back to the old normal.
What did excite me were some side conversations with some younger filmmakers I met. For example, after I gave my presentation, which was broadly focused on the need for our industry to embrace new models, I was approached by several young filmmakers who thanked me for saying what they’ve been thinking. One even said – thanks for reassuring me that I’m not crazy. Now, of course no one who hated my talk was going to bother telling me, if they even showed up. But these folks were excited, and they were firmly in camp already moved on. Meaning, they not only understand the need for change, but I doubt they’ll even try to participate in our current system – they’re ready to build a new model because it’s so apparent that the current one is broken. I suspect that new energy will start showing up in our field soon, and we’ll get a wave of experimentation in both the artform and with new business models. Or at least one can hope.
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Film
Take The Largest Global Study of Documentary Storytellers: The Center for Media & Social Impact has launched its biennial industry survey, the only longitudinal look at field trends in revenue, funding, distribution and lived experiences for nonfiction film professionals. This study helps us all better understand what is changing, what is not, and what challenges and opportunities we are facing as an industry. This year CMSI has added new questions to the survey, seeking data around issues of artificial intelligence and experiences of censorship by filmmakers. The data CMSI presents from this study will inform and support critical advocacy in our field. You can find the confidential and anonymous survey here. (GSH)
Affordable Doc Film Legal Starter Kit: Academy Award Winner Elaine McMillion Sheldon put together a Documentary Filmmaking Legal Starter Kit, a bundle of customizable legal templates she’s used and refined throughout her career, and reviewed by legal advisors over the years. She’s making them available for purchase (at a relatively affordable $79 to fellow indie directors and producers. What’s included: (1) Adult Appearance Release (2) Minor Appearance Release (3) Location Release (4) Materials Release (5) Crowd/Wide Release (6) Group Release (for adults and minors). Note that if you grab the kit by April 15, Elaine will be hosting a live Q&A session where she’ll walk through how to customize templates, share examples, and answer questions. (GSH)
Art House Convergence News: The AHC announced that 2025 Academy Award-winning filmmakers (ANORA) Sean Baker and Samantha Quan, will serve as official ambassadors for its annual Art House Theater Day (AHTD), which takes place at theaters across North America on July 24th, and that brings a series of new and classic independent films to theaters across the country to celebrate the art house community and its commitment to preserving the power of cinematic storytelling and the theatrical experience. 2025 marks the sixth Art House Theater Day and this year’s lineup will include a 10th anniversary screening of Baker’s award-winning independent film TANGERINE, released theatrically in July 2015 by Magnolia Pictures. Participating theaters will receive access to an exclusive recorded Q&A with Baker. Additional titles will be announced later this Spring. Additionally, Baker and Quan will be Special Guests at AHC’s annual conference, which takes place in Chicago July 27-29, where they will participate in an exclusive conversation with the AHC community. Learn more about conference programming here. (BN)
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Branded Content
Tune Out The Noise- Watch a Brand Doc and Retire Well: My vote for the most interesting brand doc of this year - Tune out The Noise (trailer) from Dimensional Fund Advisors, directed by the great Errol Morris. You should also watch it because it might just help you retire with more money, too. For real. Here's an unlocked WSJ article about the film and how it came together, but essentially, David Booth at Dimensional wanted to spread the gospel of passive investing, and he hired a great filmmaker to do the job, and voila - a great brand doc is born. It's free on Youtube, and it already has over 3.5M views - this is for a feature length doc on investing, mind you! It's pretty great for the first half, and then it gets a little in the weeds, but I watched the entire film, and in all honesty, I can rarely do that with most brand funded films - and I work in this sector, so that's saying a lot (clients, I watch all of your movies). Check it out. (BN)
Roblox Users Watch Google’s Immersive Ads For In-Game Rewards: Roblox, the popular gaming platform partnered with Google to launch its Rewarded Video d format, letting its users watch ads in exchange for in-game benefits (ie. power-ups, virtual currency…etc). The collaboration, announced April 1st, will enable brands to purchase immersive video ads (2D and 3D) on Roblox programmatically through Google Ad Manager, gaining them access to Roblox’s audience of 85.3 million daily active users. Early tests of the rewarded video format saw completion rates of over 80%. The Takeaway: Ads in 3D virtual spaces is pretty cutting edge. It’ll be interesting to see how advertising becomes more sophisticated on platforms like Roblox, and how they impact brand-consumer relationships. Another note: Google’s Sheffer calls the deal “a win-win-win… for advertisers…for gamers… [and] for developers.” I’m curious to find out if ads of this nature can actually enhance users’ experience, or if pop-up ads will always continue to be annoying. Kendra Barnett for Adweek has the news. (GSH)
“The old brand playbooks are obsolete” : Antonio Serros for AdAge makes the case that “the next generation of consumers doesn’t look to brands to dictate their values or tell them what they believe [and in a world where Gen Z defines its own terms of engagement,]... brands aren’t the storytellers, nor are they the story, anymore. They’re the footnotes.” Whereas Millennials turned to brands to purchase an identity (ie. “Glossier wasn’t just makeup—it was a manifesto for real beauty” and “Bombas didn’t make socks—it was an act of philanthropy… If you shop with us, you’re a good person”), younger consumers “thrive in a world of micro-trends, play and digital pastiche, where they have no fixed identity—so why should brands?” In order to stay competitive, Serros writes that (1) “instead of meticulously crafted, cohesive stories, brands must now deliver moments—bite-sized, high-impact cultural flashpoints that are primed for a culture designed to share.” (2) “Success in this environment isn’t about control; it’s about strategic chaos. Brands that embrace modular storytelling, adaptable aesthetics and rapid content iteration will capture attention in a fragmented media landscape” and (3) “When brands are as disposable as trends, identity as stable as it is fluid, the brands that endure will be those that trade permanence for adaptability and coherence for participation. Head to his AdAge article for brands he thinks are leading the way. (GSH)
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Miscellany:
News Influencers, A New Kind Of Creator: Check out Katie Salcius’ piece for Forbes about the significance of “News Influencers,” known for consistently supplying breaking insights on current events and building trust with audiences that feel disconnected from mainstream media. Salcius points out that “news influencers aren't just sharing news; they're building sustainable business models to maintain independence from corporate media. Platforms like Substack, Beehiv, and Pateron have become popular platforms for independent journalists and news creators because they allow them to bypass traditional media gatekeepers and directly connect with their audience.” Takeaway: News influencers are clearly here to stay — according to The Pew Research Center, one in five Americans get their news from these influencers — and we can expect those numbers to grow in the years to come, so let’s not fight them or the idea of them, or the fact that where we get our news is becoming more and more fragmented. After all, a massive chunk of Americans feel they’ve been failed by traditional news outlets, so maybe it's time for a change. (GSH)
A New (Really Lifelike) AI Video Model: The AI Startup Runway says its new AI Video Model can generate consistent scenes and people across multiple shots with different lighting. As an example, they released this video of a woman maintaining her appearance incredibly consistently across a variety of lighting conditions and environmental contexts. The first AI video tools ever to be released came out in June of 2024. It’s pretty remarkable how quickly the tech has improved in just 9-10 months. And an important note from Sheena Vasani for The Verge: “The release comes less than a year after Runway announced its Gen-3 Alpha video generator… [the] model [that] extended the length of videos users could produce, but also sparked controversy as [it] reportedly had been trained on thousands of scraped YouTube videos and pirated films. You can find Vasani’s piece about the new AI Video model here. (GSH)
GSH = Articles written by Sub-Genre's Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman, not Brian Newman (BN)
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