October 3, 2024 (note - the map above is from David Nuttall, an artist I like a lot)
Well, hello again. A few of you might have noticed that I didn’t pen the newsletter last week, for the first time in many years (other than my annual writing vacations in August). Things were just too busy at Sub-Genre to take note of anything else happening in the world (and this week's post is shorter for the same reason). People often say that’s a good problem to have as a business, but I don’t agree. When you’re busy putting out fires, you can’t look ahead to the future and think strategically about what you should be doing because you just want to get back to normal.
It's not that bad here, to be clear, and at least I have power and cell service (and life and home) unlike so many people who just went through Hurricane Helene. But when I speak with friends in the film business, I often get a creeping sense of nostalgia – that notion of hoping the business recovers, meaning that it gets back to normal, as opposed to going somewhere new. But getting back to normal would be a terrible thing, because normal was never all that great.
This is kinda how I feel about our entire political conversation now, too, but I’ve not been able to articulate my frustration. Luckily, filmmaker Adam Curtis is better at that than me, and reading him in Crack Magazine this week, he pointed out that a lot of our problems (he’s talking about society as a whole here, not the film biz) comes down to our leadership’s lack of imagination. Or as he says – “My theory is that the map we currently have in our heads no longer matches the territory we are in. We’re waiting for someone to draw a new map, and until then, we’re just going to witter away to each other on podcasts.” Or newsletters (uh oh).
I think that’s been the trouble we’re having in the film business as things have become stuck. People are looking at the old map for a way out of this mess, and it also doesn’t align with our new reality. As Evan Shapiro posted on LinkedIn this week:
“If you’re an independent producer and you’re not building community, if you don’t have a community manager, if you’re not thinking about how to build your own audience, and you ONLY rely on selling to the gatekeepers, the next decade won’t be very promising for you. Because selling a show to Netflix will become less & less profitable as the decade progresses. I assure you.” (emphasis mine)
We all need to be looking in new directions. The problem, however, is that much of our industry leadership is focused on putting out the fires, and on reading the old maps. We’re waiting for someone to come along with the new map. Luckily, I’ve been seeing a lot of such rumblings from both newer/upcoming leaders, and some who’ve been in the field for quite a while, but who have stayed nimble. I can’t report on all of those developments yet, because many remain behind the scenes as works-in-progress, but the next era’s winners are clearly going to be those who chart the new maps.
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Film
Rising Voices Season 5 Applications Open: Indeed partnered with Lena Waithe's Hillman Grad Productions and 271 Films to launch “Rising Voices”, a program designed to support BIPOC filmmakers in advancing their careers in the film industry. Through this initiative, 10 filmmakers will be awarded $10K for their script and a $100K production budget to create a short film, which will premiere at the Tribeca Festival in June 2025. The program is designed to provide mentorship and hands-on experience, giving filmmakers a valuable calling card to help advance their careers. This year's prompt is "The Future of Work." Indeed is seeking original 10-minute scripts that explore this theme, allowing for a wide range of tones and perspectives.If you know of any US based early-to-mid career BIPOC filmmakers (with a minimum of 3 years of professional experience and at least one narrative short film as a director), please encourage them to APPLY HERE. Applications open September 23 and close October 24. Note that Sub-Genre is currently working with Indeed on the distribution of 10 films from Rising Voices season 4. (GSH)
Think Before You Shoot — Distribution 101: Rachel Gordon, the author of The Documentary Distribution Toolkit: How to Get Out, Get Seen, and Get an Audience, will be facilitating the webinar “Think Before You Shoot - Distribution 101” as part of Raindance's Documentary Filmmaking Foundation Certificate. The live event will take place on October 14 from 7:00-9:00pm UK time (2:00pm NYC.) Topics will include distribution basics every documentary filmmaker should know, preparing technical and strategic goals to approach the markets, and how to work with distributors and on your own. Register here, and be sure to come with questions! (GSH) Rachel is a friend, and one of the few people with the true info, so I highly recommend this one. (BN)
The Streaming Wars: Where We’re At Now: Hernan Lopez writes a piece for Variety about a new chapter in the streaming wars where each player wields certain tactical advantages over the other. The main points: (1) YouTube and Netflix are the top dogs with Disney and Amazon close behind; (2) Netflix’s biggest strength is the Primacy Effect — Netflix is the first answer to “What should I watch?”; (3) YouTube, previously not categorized alongside streaming giants like Netflix, Hulu, Disney…etc boasts 2.5 billion viewers, 80% of which spend time on YouTube every day. Lopez explains this “stems from four pillars… a “freemium” model… intentional approach to desktops, mobile, and TV… format flexibility… [and] a creator-driven model that reduces creative risk while giving the product more urgency.” (4) Disney has a creative advantage — YouTube, Amazon, and others rely on a single brand whereas Disney commands a massive portfolio of media brands globally; (5) Amazon Prime Video recently turned ads on by default which got them the highest global ad reach on TVs of any streamer. Prime Video, of course, also drives spending across Amazon, making the streamer a “marketing engine for a $500 billion consumer business.” More details and graphics in-article. (GSH)
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Branded Content
Branded Content Is Becoming More Refined and Is On The Rise: Adweek’s Parker Herren writes a pretty comprehensive piece (Internet Archive link) and here's the paywall version - about branded content in streaming TV – how it began, major players in branded TV, what it looks like now, where it’s headed, and how to measure it’s impacts. The main takeaways: (1) Branded content in the form of organic storytelling is on the rise while traditional ads on TV are becoming less effective; (2) The use of first-party data platforms like Warner Bros. Discovery's "Olli," have allowed for more refined info on streaming audiences and therefore highly targeted branded content partnerships; (3) The impact of branded content is much harder to measure than traditional ads, though a number of brands report major lifts in brand trust and engagement. (GSH)
Brands Get Apolitical, “A Complete 180” Since The Black Lives Matter Movement: Founder of The Influencer League Brittany Bright explains that with election season looming, brands are working more and more with apolitical influencers, and requiring already contracted influencers to limit content deemed political to ensure brand safety. According to Kimeko McCoy in her piece for Digiday, creators are feeling damned if they do and damned if they don’t: While pressure mounts from brands looking for political neutrality, pressure is also mounting from social media users increasingly asking influencers to speak out on social justice issues and news events.” McCoy alludes to brands that faced major backlash and boycotting after certain campaigns (like when Bud Light partnered with a transgender social media influencer and activist). So for now, at least until election day, we’re looking at a stalemate: “a brand unwilling to risk backlash and an influencer unwilling to remain apolitical.” (GSH) (BN note: same thing seems true at every streamer now, too).
Messi To Produce Films & Branded Content: Keep your eye out for 525 Rosario, Leonel Messi’s soon-to-be production studio based out of LA and Miami. 525 will tackle unscripted docs and apparently branded films in partnership with advertisers (not much more is known about what these branded storytelling pieces will look like yet and how commercial they’ll be). Messi joins a host of sports stars who’ve launched their own production companies including Lebron James (The SpringHill Co.), Steph Curry (Unanimous Media), Tom Brady (199 Productions), Serena Williams (Nine Two Six Productions), and more. Read on at Erik Hayden’s piece for The Hollywood Reporter. (GSH)
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Miscellany:
When AI Hallucinates: OpenAI’s latest ChatGPT-like model known as o1 is “designed to spend more time thinking before they respond” than other generative AI language models, according to the company. Yet Forbes contributor Lance Eliot writes an important — and perhaps concerning — piece about 01’s “hallucinations” (simply put, hallucinations = when AI makes up content that isn’t based in fact) and why 01’s are different. Main takeaways: (1) What differentiates 01’s hallucinations is not what they are, but rather where and when they may appear in the generative process. “In o1 there is a raw or hidden chain-of-thought [that precedes a] kind of faked displayable version that you see (Eliot),” and when Hallucinations occur, they may occur in that hidden chain, rather than in the displayed output. (2) Eliot explains that “we don’t know what the hidden chain-of-thought contains, therefore, we must keep our fingers crossed that [it] has not… gone awry.” (3) Hopefully one day “AI makers choose to make the raw chain-of-thought visible. A true open-source generative AI would presumably do so,” but of course, that would be like asking a chef to reveal their secret sauce. Lots more info about AI hallucinations at Eliot’s piece, which by the way, is long but incredibly written. (GSH)
 AI Battles AI Over Copyright Violations: Last week, a bunch of AI-generated images of Mario on X (formerly Twitter) were flagged by Tracer, a company that uses AI to identify trademark and copyright violations online. It’s still unclear how much involvement Nintendo — which owns the rights to Mario — had in the process. Regardless, Tracer identified and filed complaints against a combination of AI generated images and also, unfortunately, fan art which X took down. One of these accounts was warned that their illustration of Mario could have their account terminated. The takeaway: (1) AI tools to identify copyright violations need to become refined so that innocent artists and fans aren’t caught up in the mix. (2) As concerns about generative AI stealing/replicating human art grow, it’s nice to know that AI can also offer a solution; (3) Hopefully in the future AI tools like Tracer’s can be applied preventatively instead of reactively. (4). Can (and when will) similar tools be used to combat the rapid spread of mis/disinformation online? Wes Davis for The Verge has the news. (GSH)
GSH = Articles written by Sub-Genre's Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman, not Brian Newman (BN)
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