• 

  Confronting the New Reality, Pt 1.

  • Posted on 2nd Apr
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  Bonnie: Don’t let it end this way. Brian: All things end badly, or else they wouldn’t end. AKA Flanagan’s Law, from Cocktail During the past few weeks, I’ve joined many conference calls discussing how the film industry might change due to the Covid-19 crisis. And I’ve read many articles about this. With very few exceptions, they’ve all been based around an extreme optimism that assumes life will return to normal at some point. And wouldn’t that be nice?

  But without even going so far as taking the most apocalyptic viewpoint, I think this is going to end pretty badly for a lot of the film industry. We aren’t going back to normal. At the risk of setting off a panic, here are my thoughts on how Covid-19 is going to impact the business, with a focus on what I care about – indie and arthouse films (I'll look at branded content soon). As I say at the end, this isn’t about getting us depressed, but rather, a hope that if we face the facts, perhaps we can build a better response. Production Netflix doesn’t see production starting up again before June,  but some are saying they’re already planning for 18 months of production problems. While this may have the silver lining of a need for finished content, see below, let’s use that as a baseline and pretend work stops for another 3-6 months. This means thousands of below-the-line workers and freelancers without jobs. How many can hang on and come back to work when production stops for that long? Who will have given up and taken a safe job – if those even exist anymore – and of those who have stuck around, which ones are going to want to work on a low-mid-budget, arthouse/indie film anymore? Film sets have always been cesspools of germs and breeding grounds for shared viruses, how many people want to go back to that? And if we can get back to production, will states cut tax incentive programs, or see those as essential job builders? I predict we’ll see a bifurcation into the extreme high and the low – more than we had before – where good crew only work on the well-funded Hollywood shoots and series. Recent college grads who have moved back home with their parents will work on the super-low budgets, but finding crew for the middle-ground will be next to impossible. That said, producers should have lots of development done and ready to go forward. Smart folks will put out promises to and lock in crew as early as possible. Cast But let’s say you put together a crew and are ready to shoot? You need cast. But most great cast were learning pre-virus that the best way to put food on the table was from series and big Hollywood films. And those have been on hold for a long time, until now. Now, there’s a need for great talent for all of those backlogged series and franchises. There goes your cast. On the plus side – they are also stuck at home doing nothing now. Smart producers will record some social media for their finished films, to assist with audience building when they launch their films. This will take some arm-twisting, but less than usual. A World without Agents? You typically cast your film with the help of agents, who also step in to help with sales (and sometimes financing). But the big agencies are already making deep cuts and laying off staff, and had bloated expenses and overhead to begin with. How many of them will survive? How many projects are they putting together for clients who can’t work? And how many sales are they making of films that can’t be produced? Sure, there will be a brief deluge of projects to be sold from the crop that were completed or close to it when this crisis hit, but what happens once you’ve sold those? Oh, and if you built your backup plan on live events, like Endeavor, what happens when that disappears? The agencies are so ingrained in the business that it’s the hardest sector to imagine disappearing, but visit one of their offices and marvel at the structures and the overhead for a few minutes, and it’s just as hard to imagine how you keep all of that going after this bottoms out. No, we won’t see the end of agents, but we will see a thinning of the sector, and perhaps a return to the days when agents were nothing special (I admit, as I type this, it sounds like I’ve slipped into a dreamland). Film Festivals Film festivals have always been run closer to the bone than any aspect of this business. They’ve relied on cheap labor, donations, sponsorships, grants, memberships, and… unpaid labor (volunteers) to keep the doors open. Most are putting on a good face now, but I doubt many can survive a big loss in income. Will SXSW or Tribeca survive a loss of millions from cancelled festivals? Will the smaller regional festivals fare any better? Who will be sponsoring festivals when places like Airbnb are cutting $800-million from their marketing budget? Sundance has many big donors and the prestige to continue. So does Cannes, Berlin, Toronto…and who else? Film Society of Lincoln Center, a bastion for the rich, older folks of NYC, has already laid off 50% of its full-time staff and all of its part-timers. Yes, they do more than serve the rich, but you get my drift – If they can’t raise emergency funds, who can?

  People have always said we have too many festivals and need a thinning of the crowd, but I don’t think anyone expected that to mean what we’re about to witness. (side note: everyone comes home from Sundance with the flu during normal times. How many people want to go there in an ongoing covid-19 world? I can’t bear to think about that just yet.) Several festivals have decided to go the virtual route to replace lost screenings. The Garden State Film Festival claimed to have 15,000 viewers for 240 films (many were shorts). Not bad, actually. The most aggressive of these efforts, and maybe the most innovative, came from CPH:DOX, and reportedly demand was so great they salvaged 50-70% of their potential lost revenue and the market & forum (industry facing sections) performed pretty well for a first-effort. But CPH:DOX gets a lot of government support, which is not the case for most US festivals, and this surely helped them adapt quickly and build new systems. I can see this being replicated by the biggest festivals, and the most innovative, but few others. Meanwhile, those festivals who have moved online have (to my knowledge, universally) told filmmakers they can’t afford to share revenue from these screenings. Ok, in this crisis moment sure, but then they haven’t offered data, promises of future promotions or much else either. These may be unstated goals, but so far, one senses that a lot more thought has gone into how virtual offerings might help festivals, and local audiences, but filmmakers…not so much. Filmmakers have accepted all of this in the past, often in exchange for not much more than coach-class airfare, a hotel room and free wine and cheese (which was often a pick two out of three situation). But now you get less than that, and how does that word of mouth translate into future success in a virtual environment, exactly? I’m not sure, but let’s hope we can build some value-chain around the surviving ones, because the rest of this puzzle doesn’t seem to add up to any prettier of a picture. Theaters Even with the relief package, theaters are in a shaky spot. Before the virus hit, the big chains were already mired in debt, facing decreased attendance, and in danger of default. Perhaps the canary in this coal-mine is the closing of VIP Cinema Seating, their biggest supplier of luxury seats just this week. The hope has been that they can weather this until the virus subsides and people return to group gatherings. When theaters re-opened in China, many took it as a great sign. But then attendance averaged one person per day, and the government closed them again within days due to fears of a resurge in transmissions. Making matters worse, studies show people aren’t putting theaters high on their list of places to revisit anytime soon. We’re in for a longer-haul than most of even the biggest theaters can survive.  I predict we’ll see a re-ordering of the major chains, with AMC and Regal in serious trouble. (Just after writing this, the WSJ reports that AMC hired restructuring lawyers yesterday.) And while smaller arthouses have always been scrappy, few have the resources in place to survive much of a downturn, and some have already made major cuts. While Criterion Collection and the Arthouse Convergence have started a GoFundMe to save arthouses, the results so far are less than encouraging. I’ve heard reports of more than a few beloved arthouses who only have enough cash to make it a month or two, and of many others who are already facing tough lease negotiations. How many will be able to survive based on the Cares Act and other government relief? In theory, they can pay salaries and rent and get loan forgiveness. Let’s hope this keeps some doors open, but my fear is the downturn will last longer than the relief. Now add to this the bigger, existential threat – the disappearance of windows. Even before this virus, windows- the time between when a film premieres in theaters and then online, were collapsing. As I predicted weeks ago, the crisis pushed everyone, from big to small, to jump into even shorter windows. My hunch is that most of them will learn what Netflix and Amazon already knew – few films needed theatrical releases for the bottom line (talent and awards were the only valid reasons anymore). And while you can argue that true cinema, like Parasite this past year, can only succeed with theatrical, and that blockbusters will always draw fans to theaters as well, the virus will decimate enough theaters that only those films will be able to find screens anymore.  That won’t leave many screens for the rest of arthouse cinema. At the same time, none of the theaters had bothered to build any semblance of a plan for home-viewing before this happened. AMC theaters hired someone to liaison with studios to figure out a cut of that pie… the week before they closed their theaters. Arthouses have recently received offers from forward-thinking distributors to share revenue from VOD -  if they help to promote these films that would have played their theaters to their members. But as Julie Anderson Friesen of CinemaFalls in Sioux Falls, South Dakota pointed out to me, these patron lists were built over years and a split of revenue only looks fair if you don’t think about the fact that those patrons are now on the email list of the distributor and will buy/rent future films, but none of that revenue will flow back to the source theater. Terms need to be negotiated. Of course, theaters could have banded together and made their own VOD platform, and showcased distributor’s films and shared revenue while keeping their patron relationships in place, but that was too hard to do when they were busy furloughing employees to stop the bleeding. Let me only gently remind them – this should have been done pre-crisis anyways. My hope here is that the crisis will lead to some form of shared list, where I as a consumer, could sign up for updates from both my local cinema, and from distributors and artists directly (opt-in and out, of course). We’ve needed that for a long time anyways (I proposed such a system back in 2011) Arthouse Distributors - But don’t worry for too long that those arthouse distributors are going to get rich building an ecosystem off the backs of the arthouses. Sure, they have might gain more emails now, but none have ever been in the business of trying new things to market their films. They put them in theaters and took out print ads in the paper, because that’s what always worked. Or did until those two places disappear during this crisis. How many have the budgets to properly market these new VOD systems? My guess is not (m)any. Arthouse content actually does need theatrical to survive – it’s not just a marketing tool, but a major revenue stream for indies, and arthouse films require the longer time to build word-of-mouth that a theatrical allows. Bottom line – arthouse distributors needed theaters more than anyone else. Without them, they will have trouble surviving. Not that they had it easy pre-virus. Many were also over-leveraged and/or had owners that were ready to sell before things got scary. Launching OTT channels during a crisis is not going to reverse their bad news. And there’s more. Conversations with buyers and sellers over the past couple of weeks shows that most sellers are going direct to the biggest SVOD/AVOD/OTT players and skipping distributors – because a lot of what those distributors do is gone now that theatrical is on hold (maybe forever), so less quality content is even available for them to buy and possibly distribute. None of this adds up to much in the way of good news. Documentary If there’s ever been a scrappy bunch of filmmakers who know how to organize and survive an apocalypse, it’s been the documentary filmmaking community. There are more support systems in place here than any part of the business. Unfortunately, the only films that have ever been a financial success have been the top 1%, usually musician or sports biopics (Amy, Senna), the occasional Blackfish or Free Solo, and Ken Burns. Many smart producers were moving to commissioned work only pre-virus, and this trend will accelerate. Serious and social-issue docs are going to have a very hard time. The talk among distributors for the past few years was that post-Trump’s election, no one wanted to watch serious films anymore because they were just too exhausted after a day of his tweets. Imagine what happens now when he’s helped cause an entire economy’s collapse while tweeting about his ratings. Meanwhile, sitting around home for a few weeks has gotten the doc community to wondering whether any of this is sustainable, especially if you weren’t born into privilege? No wonder the most popular topic on the D-Word forum has been about dealing with mental health issues. Equity and Financing So when all of this happens, who is going to finance these films? Private equity was always a gamble, but it becomes a bigger one when you have nothing but tax credits to lessen the burden. Oh wait, how many states will keep offering those as tax revenues decline across the board in a recession that may become a depression? But when smart equity investors look at the buyers that will be left, it’s going to be mainly major platforms - who aren’t looking for equity, and who will only splurge for a small number of titles. The reports of those few splurges – as always – will keep some dumb money flowing. But the smart money is going to be investing in M&A activity, if anything, for quite some time. SVOD Players Which brings us back to those big-guys and their new services. Disney and Apple just launched new services that need more content. How many new subscribers are they going to get for just their library content? And Netflix long-ago switched to an original content strategy, while building up mountains of debt, as they lost library content to Disney and Peacock. Peacock might now have Friends, but as a new service that needs eyeballs, it was planning to blast into consumer-consciousness based on the Olympics. Or at least sports…oh, wait.  These major services won’t die, but we will likely see them buy up struggling smaller players to shore up their libraries and ensure new content comes there way post-virus. And none of them will be looking for niche, arthouse content anytime soon. The only services looking good here are suddenly ad-supported networks like Pluto (Viacom/CBS) and those attached to real businesses like…Amazon. (For the time being, let’s not even contemplate what happens if Amazon can’t ship packages anymore). But services build on selling toilet paper to the masses (both Advertising and Amazon) aren’t known for supporting quality arthouse films. While we’re thinking about streaming, perhaps we should deal now with the other new player – Quibi, which launches right when people have a lot of free time on their hands. But their business model was based on what’s usually also in your hand – your phone – which won’t look nearly as tempting when you’re stuck at home in front of a giant television loaded with content. Not to mention tons of free, live-streaming options on IGTV, and when you no longer have down-time to fill on that commute to your couch. Conclusion Ok, none of this looks very good, right? And before I get nasty comments, remember – I say all of this as someone who loves film festivals, arthouse theaters and even the agents and distributors (ok, maybe not the agents).  But I think it’s better to face the reality of how this crisis is impacting the business, and how bad it might actually get, instead of just hoping for the best. That will allow us to dream up the correct responses, and maybe let us have a better chance at inventing the future. I promise to get back to the positive thoughts – on how we react to these realities – next week.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film

  

  A theater in Texas turned its parking lot into a Drive-In to much success: Forbes reports.Innovation plus social distancing, plus movies for the win. PLUS - they launched alcohol and grocery delivery, too. Everyone picked up this story, it seems, but few reported that part, which shows just how innovative this theater has been.

  Collaboration will be key to survival: If that's even possible, says Jordan Zakarin in the Observer. A great article on the issues confronting all aspects of the business, and some of the new initiatives from distributors and exhibitors.

  Criterion Collection and the Arthouse Convergence have started an emergency fund to help indie cinemas to survive. As I mentioned above, donations haven't been stellar yet, but there's still time. And they need it:  Donate here.

  Matthew Ball has a trifecta of essays on how covid-19 is impacting movies/theaters, SVOD, PayTV and OTT, and Gaming. Not much new here, but it does have good data on where things were before-covid (bc) and what might happen next.

  Sundance Curated some films you should watch:  I've been arguing for over a decade that festivals need to promote their curatorial abilities between festivals, and many are finally doing that. Sundance joined in this week. Now, I find it hard to believe their programmers are sitting around only watching old Sundance movies, but it's a start. Let's hope they follow Montclair's example and curate some other films next.

  MISC

  

  You filled out the Census, right? When I posted this, response rates were just in the 30% range. Come on people.

  How Artists Can Stay Afloat - and Thrive - During the Crisis - Billboard talks with several musicians who have turned to live streaming and merch, among other ideas, to pay the bills. Some are even mowing lawns, and pointing out that any income is good in a crisis. Many good ideas here, some of which would work for other artists.

  The Brand Film Awards Finalists have been announced. I was lucky to serve on the jury this year, and there's some great stuff in the mix. They're announcing the winners on May 7th in a virtual event, including some panels and keynotes.

• 

  Making Lemonade

  • Posted on 30th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  When coronavirus shuts down everything, you gotta do something positive. Here's a quick roundup of some generally positive, good ideas that have come out of the crisis. Some are worth copying (or paying homage) if you're looking for ideas for your own film, organization or just your free time. (Note: the photo above is from the NYPost of some kids who made a hands-free lemonade stand in NYC).

  

  Make a Global Cloud Film – that’s what Tiffany Shlain and Ripple are doing – collecting videos from around the world where people either read a poem she selected, or send their answers to a few questions (“What is the best thing that can come to this?”) and submit their videos, which her team will edit into a global crowd-sourced film. But the deadline is tomorrow! I’ve been doing a miniature version of this exquisite corpse artistic practice with a few friends, and love the idea of getting creative on a global project. This one would be easy for other filmmakers, brands and studios to duplicate in different ways.

  

  Montclair Film Festival and discuss it with a group – While many festivals are launching online versions, the Montclair Film Fest is going to wait and have a “real” fest later in the year. In the meantime, they’ve launched Discover Together, where each Sunday, their programmers will pick a week’s worth of films to watch from home, available on various services, and then members can follow along with the conversation in  a private Facebook group. A nice way to engage existing and new members.

  Filmmaker launches Theatrical at Home campaign - I know you're thinking, hey, anyone can call streaming by that name, but this is pretty genius. The filmmakers behind Phoenix, Oregon had scheduled a theatrical tour for their film, which was put on hold. So on March 20th they did a "theatrical at home" where you selected your theater and they let you stream it online for a fee, but shared the revenue with the theater where you would have seen the film. Thus helping the theaters that were taking a chance on them at the same time. Good lemonade. I'll try to find out how it went. There are now many other examples of this same strategy being put in place - or variations of it, see below for just one - but this was among the first, I think.  Attend a Virtual Cinema and Support a Real One – KinoLorber was one of the first distributors to launch a program to showcase a new film - that would have been in theaters – online, in conjunction with those same theaters. It’s called KinoMarquee and you pick your local arthouse that would have been showing a film and they get a split of the revenue if you rent it online. In theory, the arthouses promote these films and both can succeed. Here’s FilmLinc promoting Bacurau this past week. We are now seeing several other distributors with variations of this idea. Distributors in China are allowing Movie Theaters to Screen some old Blockbusters and keep all of the revenues to help them re-open – Details are scarce, but ChinaFilmInsider has the article, and apparently more re-releases are being done soon to help theaters recover and get audiences back in the seats. According to some other reports I've read, while many cinemas are opening again in China, they are reporting very low box office, so this idea might help lure people back to group viewing. Might be worth doing this here when we can copy it.

  

  SXSW and MailChimp Team Up to Present Shorts - MailChimp Presents has teamed up with Oscilloscope and SXSW to present shorts from the recently cancelled film festival. This is a great way for brands to do something innovative and fun during the crisis, especially when curation helps more than production. Deadline reports.

  Film Will arthouse theaters go out of business? – that’s what many are worried about as they speak with Vice – Christopher Escobar of the Atlanta Film Fest and owner of the Plaza Theater (he took the shot here), and my old stomping grounds, says: “"If this really does last for two months, I have absolutely no idea what I'm going to do," Christopher Escobar, the Plaza’s owner, told VICE. "We're the only historic theater in Atlanta, the only locally owned theater. All of the love, blood, sweat, and tears of all the people who have done this before me is counting on me not fucking this up, and somehow finding a way to make it work." What the heck should filmmakers do about distribution during this crisis? DocNYC has a workshop for that - this Friday from 2-3pm est. DESCRIPTION: Filmmakers are scrambling for new strategies to connect with distributors and reach audiences as Covid-19 sweeps the globe. DOC NYC’s programming team has been in constant contact with sales agents, distributors and marketing consultants to gather the best advice on how to navigate these unprecedented challenges. Among the questions we’ll address: How do films recover from cancelled spring festivals? Will streamers need new content? As education moves, online, how can docs play a part? What are DIY strategies for this moment? RSVP here. DocNYC has also compiled a list of workshops and resources for filmmakers. Great start - but can every film org please create a group calendar somewhere and showcase it on each of your homepages? Might help a bit. How do you host a screening event to replace a theatrical event or tour? Together Films and PictureMotion joined together to hold some online webinars on how to navigate digital and impact during this crisis. Online every Monday at 2pm ET for the foreseeable future, and archived as well. Their first workshop covered the numerous tools available for hosting live event screenings, and the pros and cons of each one, as well as some other key tips and even legal issues to consider. It is archived at the link. Will coronavirus lead to a new "better" normal? that's what Sarah Mosses of Together Films hopes for in her last newsletter, which gives a long run-down of the many ways things have changed (like less emissions, republicans becoming socialists, etc.) and how that could be a change for the better. Windows are even be shortened in France – In France, windows – the time between theatrical and VOD – have been enforced by law, with most films needing a 4 month window and smaller films required to keep to 3 months. But as part of their COVD-19 response, the government has allowed distributors to shorten windows. ScreenDaily reports. I predicted shortened windows would become a new norm a few weeks ago, but this is big news. How much has the quarantine effected viewing of films and TV?HBO/Now/Max has a small report. Among the interesting data-points: "We’ve also seen tremendous growth in movie viewing, with engagement this past week growing 70% from the four-week average."   MISCELLANY: Arts orgs – keep marketing during the crisis! That’s the very strong and good advice from Colleen Dilenschneider in her blog, KnowYour Own Bone, and in her latest article, Why Marketing Matters During COVID-19 Closures – Key Factors to Consider. She uses excellent data to show just how much more expensive it is to re-gain a member/subscriber in her other article, The Cost of Cutting Marketing Budgets in Cultural Organizations. It can be hard not to cut marketing when you’re in a crisis and likely cutting staff and wondering if you can stay open, but the data is clear – keep marketing (but change it to reflect the times, which she discusses). (h/t on this one to Andrew Rodgers, who sent this out to many film fest folks recently). Rotterdam's Philharmonisch Orchestra recorded Beethoven's 'Ode to Joy' -in isolation, but as a group- and then the Colorado Symphony did the same thing. In a very Kutiman-esque style, showing that as Colleen suggests above - you need to keep marketing as an arts org during this crisis. And it can be quite creative. Here's Alvin Ailey doing something similar on Instagram. Is the NYT bad for democracy? That’s the question asked by Chang Che at Quiellette, noting that perhaps a rising tide doesn’t lift all boats, and that as the NYT increasingly owns more of our news and media consumption, perhaps we should think about the downside of this monopoly, and what it means for a diversity of voices and news sources. I Lost my Gig - Support for Austin Gig Workers  - some folks put together a website where gig workers who lost income from the cancellation of SXSW can post their lost wages, and folks can donate. It's for Austin-locals only, not the thousands of others affected from across the world - but it's already above $4 million in losses for 750+ people. Donate now, if you can.

• 

  Ideas for responding to Covid in the Film Industry

  • Posted on 19th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  We’re just barely into this coronavirus situation and I think we can all agree it’s gonna get worse before it gets better. While the world needs optimists, it also needs realists, and I’m in the latter camp, feeling pretty sure this is going to last much longer than a few months. But whether this lasts 3 months or 18+, the impact on our world is already huge and the film world needs to think big about how to respond.  Here’s just a few thoughts that have crossed my mind this week in regards to how we should respond, in no particular order, and definitely not trying to cover every facet here...

  We need to experiment with new distribution models (and need grants for them) – Nearly every call I’ve had with clients (indies and brands) this week has been about how they might distribute their films in a world without film festivals, without theaters, and no clear sign of when the situation might get back to normal. But everyone seems paralyzed with fear of the unknown. Everyone talks about using the power of the web and social media to reach and engage audiences, but no one is willing to try new models to go direct to the audience online because so much (investment, pride, etc.) is on the line. But people need to stop hoping the old system comes back soon and start building new models now. If you are a brand – guess what, you don’t need festivals or the system – you can build a new model and market it yourself. If you are an indie – by the time things get back to normal, your film may be old news, and it may be too late to recover. Start experimenting now. That said, if you are a funder or nonprofit supporter - We need substantial grants - $150K and up to producers and/or indie distributors willing to experiment with some new models, asap. Funders need to give living support for filmmakers, especially producers – Almost every grant that exists is for specific projects and/or for directors. I’m not saying to get rid of those (although I’ve argued for that before), but right now we need to help filmmakers pay the rent and survive. We need unrestricted living grants. Sure, philanthropists can require some deliverable at the end, but it shouldn’t be tied to the completion of a film. And these grants need to be extended to those always overlooked – producers. Without producers, directors can’t make their films. And producers scrape together a living now as-is, but that’s even harder when nothing is getting made. So we need money for both.  And yes, of course, we need to prioritize historically marginalized groups in this giving as well. Help others, but don’t expect any help – Yes, we need to be altruistic and help others during this crisis. But we also need to realize – as indie filmmakers – that no one is coming to our rescue, and it’s time we take our survival into our own hands. Too many filmmakers who have films in development, and/or films that just had a premiere cancelled, tend to wait for the “system” to work out for their film. They wait for festival acceptances to launch their films, and then hope a sales agent will sell it to the highest bidder. But not only has this not been working for quite some time – the system is now broken. Completely. Even people who think they are gonna put it back together in a few months are going to learn soon that most of it is gone. It’s time to take hold of your destiny and make a plan for your film that doesn’t require other people coming to your rescue. What does this look like? Well, I’m not 100% sure, and that’s why it’s called getting creative. We need to invent new systems. I am pretty sure it doesn’t involve waiting on festivals to re-arrange their schedules, or for sales agents to call you back. It definitely involves building your audience directly. It might still involve traditional distributors, but even then, it will require you to be a lot more participatory with them and your audiences. And it means moving fast, and not waiting to figure things out later when things settle down. As Richard Brody mentions in the New Yorker this week – producers who survived 1918 did so because they moved fast (see below and here). Roll ‘em Up – I’ve beensaying for a long time that we need a great big roll-up in the indie space, and I believe it now more than ever. There are going to be a lot of bankruptcies and out-and-out failures in the indie space – theaters/chains; distributors; production companies; agencies; festivals and nonprofit support organizations; start-ups and I’m betting more than one major SVOD player and/or Studio. It’s time for someone who either has money, or can raise it, to roll-up some of these players into some more sustainable businesses. Don't forget about AVOD - these platforms will soar – The quarantined world is moving to streaming faster by the day. Viewers are also getting poorer, meaning the shift we’ve been seeing to ad-supported streaming networks will accelerate. It’s a great time to own an AVOD platform, and a great time for content rights-holders to move faster into this space. Don't move too fast - because audiences will want less content in the short term than is being assumed – Everyone keeps talking about how people are stuck at home just itching for stuff to watch. Platforms and publications are curating lists for them to watch, and everyone thinks it will be a boom time for viewing. But here’s the thing- check your own gut. Are you dying for things to watch? Or are you frantically checking news, social media and reports to find out what’s going on with the virus? And to find out who among your friends and acquaintances is ok? I think it’s the latter. While we will get stir crazy eventually, I think most adults are going to have plenty to do without increasing their film/show viewership in the near term (kids will need something to do, as the crisis isn’t as real to them). Gaming has increased, but it’s much more participatory and distracting than a film/show. It helps OCD better, which is what we all have right now. Jumping into the content soup too quickly is not a smart strategy. Timing this will be hard – fast, but not too fast is the best bet. Let people catch their breath first. There’s gonna be a crisis in branded content – but also great opportunity - There’s going to be a big pull-back in investments in the branded content space. It’s inevitable as we go into an economic crisis, and no one can fault any brand that focuses on staying alive as a business versus investing in content. Budgets will be cut, and even when they aren’t – productions are near impossible to pull off. I expect we’ll see a giant shake out in this space, and it won’t be pretty. But the reasons that smart brands have been moving into this space remain sound, and I would argue are only getting more valid. Consumers will keep cutting the cord and will move even more rapidly to streaming. Breaking through the noise with ads no one wants is getting even harder. Consumers will value brands they can trust even more. All of this helps branded content. If you can stick it out and convince your colleagues to stay with their plans, you’ll also find a much less crowded space – because let’s face it, few will remain. And while quality producers/directors and talent were becoming more open to working with brands before, they’ll be even more ready now – they need the support. Platforms will also need the content you do manage to get produced, and without traditional ways to market (like theaters), they’ll value your loyal customers and marketing savvy even more. Brands in film, or moving into this space – develop nerves of steel, as you’ll need them. If you can stomach it, double down.

  Is there a silver lining for finished films? Maybe. Here’s the theory – production has ground to a halt, across all media. Yet the networks, the SVODs, the distributors need product to bring to audiences if they want to stay open. They can’t buy crap just to fill space – oh wait, they can and it’s called reality tv, but that can’t get made either – so there’s going to be more appetite for quality finished product. And there’s a lot of stuff in the can that was about to premiere at festivals. Let’s hope this helps them all find a home. But this will only work if people aren’t precious and don’t wait on releasing their films for too long – because (Again as Brody also says), a lot of creativity is gonna come out of these folks stuck in their homes, and it will take all of the attention away from everything/one else that waits for things to return to normal. These are by no means comprehensive thoughts on what we should do in response to this crisis, but just a few I had this week. Love to hear other ideas from anyone who cares to share them with me - I'm easy to find.

  Stay safe out there – in your homes.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film

  Studios start Streaming; closing windows - Well, that didn't take long. As I predicted back on Feb 28th, the studios are already closing windows and putting many films up on streaming fast, or from the start. Universal was first among the big guns. More will follow. The NYT was among many to have the story. Vulture had a good rundown too. FastCo said, go faster. 

  Will CoronaVirus and Streaming be the Death of Theaters? - Some, like The Atlantic, predict this will mean the end of theaters. IndieWire thinks it just gives the studios more leverage (yes). But it won't - debt might do them in, but people will flock back when they can get out again. That said, windows won't go back to 90 days for most films, only those that are major popcorn flicks or that need sustained word of mouth.

  Maybe the Film Industry is well positioned to bounce back -that's what Jim Amos of Forbes thinks - saying that IF (big if) the panic lessens by the end of Summer, we'll have a ton of product ready for screens, and a population ready to get out of the house already. It's that IF that scares me.

  Lessons for the Industry from the 1918 Pandemic - Richard Brody at the New Yorker has what may be the best take on how to think about the impact of coronavirus yet - looking at “History of the American Film Industry,” by Benjamin P. Hampton (1931) he finds that the entire industry changed as a result of the flu, and the war, and only fast moving folks survived. Hampton notes (quoted by Brody): "The producers who hesitated lost ground in the struggle that was shaping its lines for the final test of industrial survival, and those who disregarded common business prudence and rushed ahead on a showman’s hunch saved their skins.” Lots of great thoughts here.

  Nielsen released a report on the increase in viewing due to past crises in the US and the coronavirus in South Korea and Italy - and guess what? It goes up. The study shows close to 50% increases in viewing during past crises such as Hurricane Harvey, and around 17% in South Korea recently and 6.5% in Italy. Me: To be expected, but as the rec/depr-ession hits soon, we will likely see the viewership switch to the SVODs specifically, and more cord cutting from cable as people cut back on what bills they pay. What's a Doc Filmmaker to Do when fests get cancelled? The D-Word has the debate going on now. If you aren't a member of D-Word, you must join, but it's free and worth joining for many reasons. Right now, they are debating, discussing and solution-izing around how to handle covid-19, on the thread - How do we adapt? They might just figure it out.

  Filmmakers Try to Figure out what to do when every Festival Cancels - NoFilmSchool talks with several filmmakers - including the director of a film I produced (Cas Nozkowski of The Outside Story), and two who are clients (David Alvarado and Jason Sussberg of We are As Gods) to figure out what people do next.

  Need an update on Fest reschedule dates/cancellations, online versions? - The FilmFestival Database has you covered. In his new newsletter, Mike Forstein explains how he has updated his database with new dates, cancellations, etc. I have a feeling this is going to go more haywire than anyone thinks, but it's a good resource (still) for now. (That's a still from his newsletter/database at the top of mine above). And if you need another list - this one from the FreeTheWork folks has a list of all of the rescheduled fests, as well as which ones are still taking place online.

  

  What are all these theater employees gonna do to make ends meet? Well, some folks started a fundraiser to at least try to get every movie theater worker in NYC a check for $600 bucks. That's a start. Contribute to the Cinema Worker Solidarity Fund here. H/t to Dear Producer which is a great newsletter which led me to this link, and that same link has other resources for artists in need during this crisis.

  MoviesAnywhere's new ScreenPass let's users share films with friends - from your "digital locker." Up to three users for 72 hrs. Via the Verge. Reminder - if you pay for it, you should own it and be able to do whatever the f-k you want to do with it. This "sounds great" idea is more copyright-overreach-rubbish.

  Why are users flocking to Contagion films now? (and why curation might not be a great idea right now - The Guardian's Charles Bramesco reports on how viewers are doing some exposure therapy. But more importantly for everyone curating lists of what to watch at home, he has a great point: "But I’d contend that there’s a faint futility to analyzing apocalypse viewing of any sort, because when something occupies as much mental real estate as the widespread panic of Covid-19, everything becomes apocalypse viewing. If it’s impossible not to spend every waking hour obsessing over the precarious state of the public’s health, it’s likewise impossible not to project those anxieties on to anything one might choose to watch." and ends with this, which I agree with completely: " It’s starting to seem like the only real therapy is the detached, unplugged, attention-commanding simplicity of chopping vegetables."

  Branded Content

  Trust is the Only Metric that Matters - Digiday has an interview with Attention Capital's Joe Marchese (pre-corona) where he brings up the importance of smart curation in a world that increasingly needs trust - "In this world where trust is eroding, the curator brands kind of become king. And I think the great example of this is Wirecutter." More brands should keep this in mind. 

  That's the only branded content link this week because, well, there isn't much happening in the space. Brands are figuring out how to respond to this crisis. Content should be part of that, but it understandably isn't when people are tying to figure out how to care for their employees and their customers. More in this space soon.

  MISC

  Reporters without Borders is putting censored journalism in the library of Minecraft - File under brilliant. FastCo reports on a project to help people in countries anywhere, even with censorship, to get access to censored journalism.  A shot from their article:

  

  TikTok is censoring ugly and poor folks - The Intercept reports on more vile social media behavior. 

• 

  Coronavirus & the Industry

  • Posted on 12th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  This is still developing, and no one - myself included - has their heads wrapped around what happens next, but I don't know how not to start this newsletter with a coronavirus update - it's all anyone can talk about. And it's impact is big for everyone, so I am not trying to minimize the bigger picture by focusing on how it's gonna change the film industry.

  Everyone knows that SXSW cancelled, and left many films wondering what happens next, while 50+ people were laid off. Someone started a GofundMe page for service workers in Austin, which isn't a half-bad idea. SXSW announced they didn't have insurance, and then we learned that not only does Cannes not have insurance for cancellations by virus, but that they recently turned down an opportunity to buy it at a cost of just 6% of their premium. Talk about hubris. And crazy...although as I'm about to press send, Cannes tells Le Figarothey might cancel if things get worse. (they will).

  Meanwhile, Stage32 announced that they'd be screening SXSW films on their platform for buyers, agents and other industry. IndieWire and a few other outlets announced they'd cover films from SXSW as if they had played (as long as the producers are ok with that). But everyone I know is arguing whether this makes sense, given that most press care about premiere status and word of mouth. And while we all know buyers can honestly form an opinion with a Vimeo link, how do you get their attention away from a festival?  I know that at least one VR company was known to be contacting festivals, offering that they could hold virtual events in their space(s), but while Forbes thinks this can work for conferences and events, Wired just reported that using VR as a replacement for the real world, isn't working out so well, and I don't know anyone who would sell their film to buyers or the public this way (which is in itself an indictment of the technology).

  Numerous other Spring festivals keep saying they'll take place, but most people in the industry that I know are counting them all out. As I write this, Cleveland Film Fest and Full Frame both cancelled. I imagine 5-10 more will follow suit before I press send. Especially the bigger ones that draw not just crowds, but lots of travelers and red carpet press lines (guess who...).

  My two cents: This is gonna get worse way before it gets better. Anything of consequence will cancel. There might be a Summer lull, as happens with many viruses, but then it will hit again this Fall, meaning filmmakers and industry can't count on NYFF, Toronto, Telluride, etc. Everyone is busy guessing what happens to the films that just lost their chance at SXSW, but what happens to the thousands of films about to be hit from cancellations from every other major fest, possibly through the end of the year? Will Sundance take place in January of '21 - can they get insurance when we don't have a handle on when we might get more masks much less a vaccine? Will SXSW get a bailout from the State of Texas (Utah helped Sundance back during the recession), or try to come back by "pulling on their bootstraps?" What happens to production on all the films trying to get cast to show up during a pandemic? What happens to your financing when the stock market goes down 20%+ and your investors get nervous? And how about your insurance for that shoot? And in my branded content world - How many brands are going to stick with long-form (and time consuming) bets when sure things like commercials are an easy fall-back?

  And guess what folks - this is part of a new normal. As I mentioned two weeks ago here, fundamental business practices are going to get rearranged and it's going to be terrifying and interesting to watch. This is not being alarmist, just stating the facts; and I'm thinking we should plan for these things instead of hoping they don't come to pass.

  Wash your hands. Don't touch your face, and don't even think about what happens next in the film world.

  Will Packer, "Hollywood Underdog" as Indie Producer role-model.

  Will Packer is the Hardest Working Man in the Biz - and he's finally getting some more attention from the indie world too - IndieWire has a great interview with super-producer Will Packer, and I highly recommend it to anyone making films, wanting to make films, or wanting to know how real producers do their work. I am biased as can be here - Will and I went to high school together in St. Pete, Florida and both played football (I sucked, he was better at that too!) - he was two years behind me, so we weren't the best of friends or anything, but this bonded us when we reconnected years later in Atlanta, where he joined the board of the Atlanta Film Festival, which I ran at the time.

  

  I'll never forget sitting in a meeting of people in Atlanta who, at that time, were trying to get a tax incentive passed (wildly successful now) and Will stood up and said, "I have a film in theaters today that has the highest per-screen average in America, yet no one here is taking us seriously." That film was Trois, and he marketed it so well that Sony ended up hiring his company to market and distribute the films they bought from him later. His early films are case studies in how to market indie films to a "niche" (scare quotes because the audience was huge), underserved audience. And he still does this today, telling IndieWire, "I’m also involved with the distribution, the marketing. If I pitched it, if I oversaw the production and got it made, how can I then just turn it over to people and then say, “All right, now you go sell it.” Amen - and I wish every producer said that.

  He worked his way up to being one of the most successful (if not award winning) producers in Hollywood, and as he explains to IndieWire, it took forever for the industry to pay attention. Well, they pay attention now. What's his formula for success? Another quote that I wish I heard from every producer: "It is: What is the audience, where are they, what are they into, what would resonate with them, what’s the marketing? Then I do a cost-benefit analysis, because if I think the audience that I could realistically reach is not worth the effort it would take to reach them, I probably won’t do that project." (emphasis added).  Read the interview and follow his lead.

  While Will would admit his films are very commercial, he is the epitome of indie producer and it's mind-boggling to me that he isn't on the board of more indie film organizations today.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  More Film News

  AMC Theaters has hired a new chief of strategy, to help negotiate with SVOD players, among other things. Deadline reports, on what is probably a case of a good idea, way too late.

  Roku is among the entities that could be helped by coronavirus, reports InvestorPlace, and we'll see plenty of these articles as people stay home and switch completely to in-home. As I asked two weeks ago, will they ever come back?

  AT&T back to its old tricks with streaming - According to Vice they are burying fees, doubling prices after low starter fees, and all the other great things that made us hate cable in the first place. Remember, people didn't just hate the bundle, they hated getting screwed.

  

  A new site gives you every streaming service, but on one condition: you have to watch they are watching - Buzzfeed and the Verge break down how this demonstrates what we've always known -  a broken streaming model encourages piracy. 

  Check out this film by Justin McConnel which breaks down the life of an Indie Filmmaker - From Nofilmschool. I haven't seen the full film, but people say it's what you should learn about in film school, all in one little film. The trailer makes it seem pretty informative.

  Branded Content

  

  BrandStorytelling launched its first Honor Roll of six individuals who are driving branded content forward. The Honor Roll was launched at this year's BrandStorytelling conference and there's a great write-up on the awards, who was honored and why over at Forbes. The Chicago Bulls are the first NBA team to embrace Tik Tok through Branded content: Front Office Sports breaks it down. They won't be the last, and more brands- and events - should follow the lead. From the article - “The partnership with The Bulls and BMO Harris is a great example of how sports teams can create engaging and fun content with their sponsors,” Levin said. “We encourage and empower our partners to work with their local markets to bring value for their sponsors.” Influencers are finding innovative ways to separate their brand from other brands they're collaborating with - Digiday has the story - and its essentially about inserting commercial blocks to notify you of sponsored posts.

  MISC Virtual Reality For Good Use Causes? Forbes has the rundown on some "use cases" of VR for social good. I remain skeptical, but this has some good ideas. Thinking of starting a podcast? Everyone is, and (my sometimes lawyer) Alan Baldachin has a great post on what he's learned from a year of hosting his podcast, The Medium Rules, which is also a great podcast to watch/listen to about long term media trends. A seventeen year old High School student created a website that gives the most up to date info on Coronavirus in an easy to read format.  Check it out

• 

  Sub-Genre At the Movies

  • Posted on 12th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  I have to interrupt the normal newsletter flow for some self-promotion this week. I'm super proud to announce that a film I produced (along with Frank Hall Green and Joseph Stephans) - The Outside Story, directed by Casimir Nozkowski - premieres at the Tribeca Film Festival in April. This one is a true indie, with no brands involved, and I can't wait for my friends and colleagues to see the premiere. The cast - partially listed on the graphic above - is amazing, especially Brian Tyree Henry. Stay tuned on our FB page for updates, but here's the synopsis:

  After many acclaimed supporting roles, Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Eternals) takes on his first big screen lead character as Charles Young, an introverted video editor, trying to recover from a broken heart. Perceiving a betrayal of trust as a sign his girlfriend Isha (Sonequa Martin-Green, Star Trek: Discovery) is leaving him, Charles pre-emptively blows up his relationship and sequesters himself at home. The fates do not comply and Charles accidentally locks himself out of his apartment. Stumbling into a life-changing odyssey exploring his building and opening himself up to his community, Charles meets a world of previously avoided neighbors played by Asia Kate Dillon (John Wick 3, Billions), Sunita Mani (GLOW, Mr. Robot, Madeline’s Madeline) Olivia Edward (Better Things) Maria Dizzia (Orange is the New Black) and Michael Cyril Creighton (Spotlight) among others. In a nearly real-time experience, Charles is forced to re-evaluate his choices when he sees his life in parallel with the people around him. From his recently widowed neighbor next door, to the curious swingers upstairs, to the piano prodigy hiding out on the roof, Charles moves from one neck-snapping tableau to the next, disrupting and being disrupted in the process. With no shoes, no money, a phone running low and the stars aligned to keep him physically separated from his comfort zone, Charles discovers in The Outside Story we’ve all got issues and it never helps to keep them locked up inside.

  I'm also excited to announce a few other client projects premiering soon - and there's more to come with about 12 client films premiering this Spring/Summer (!) - which I'll list once the fests announce their schedules. 

  

  Also at Tribeca, is FRIES! from Zero Point Zero productions and director Michael Steed. As I've been telling folks, this one is going to change the world one fry at a time! Ok, it's just fun, and informative, and a crowd-pleaser. But it's been a pleasure to work with ZPZ, who joined Chrissy Teigen, Malcolm Gladwell, Eric Ripert, Sir Kensington's and others on this fun film.

  

  And launching at CPH:DOX is Project Debater - a film by Epic Magazine's Josh Davis and Harry Spitzer, about an AI developed by IBM that can debate a human. This one will premiere with a live debate between a champion debater featured in the film, and the AI - augmented with power from the intelligence of the audience! Click here for more info. 

  

  SXSW also premieres ZPZ's Radical Love - a great short about Michael and Eleanora Kennedy, a husband-wife legal team who represented a who’s who of the politically subversive class in the 1960s and 70s. I didn't work on this last one, but have been following it while ZPZ has been a client, and it's a must-see project.

  Back to my rants on the week's news next week. For now, mark these films on your calendars/queues and please help spread the word.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film/Streaming Rian Johnson says Apple won't let "bad guys" have iPhones on camera - brand protection taken to the extreme. Roku is in talks to make shows- kinda like Amazon, but being quiet about what they want to do, kinda like clueless bureaucrats with a vague, copycat idea. Quibi Closes Upsized $750 Million Second Round of Funding for Mobile-Video Launch - Quibi raised more than it thought this round - is this a good thing, or a sign of over-spending or over-enthusiasm? We'll find out in just weeks. YouTube TV adds a big missing piece of the cord-cutting puzzle with HBO deal - FastCo reports that YouTube has made a big deal with HBO, making it another bundle of sorts. Disney streaming falters due to lack of adult programs, experts say - Has Disney's growth slowed because they've gotten all the kids, but have nothing else for adults? That's the theory from the NYPost.

  Gaming/VR/AR/AI   Push-button warfare: How artists use games to capture drone strike horror - ArsTechnica reports - “It is ongoing, it is growing, and it is horrifying.” That is how digital media artist Joseph Delappe described the military use of drones" and why he's focusing his art on this issue. More artists are doing the same. Will this bring more public outrage than film has been able to do? More Than 100 VR Games Have Exceeded $1 Million in Revenue- Maybe these things will work after all. RoadToVR Reports The Pentagon now has 5 principles for artificial intelligence Wait...the Pentagon has principles?! These seem toothless, but you gotta start somewher

  Misc.   Perhaps the cloud isn't such an energy hog - A couple of weeks ago, I posted about the climate impact of cloud computing and how our shift to this - and how it overlaps with Netflix, gaming, etc. - could be a bad thing. Well, turns out the NYT reports recently that while we are shifting to the cloud, these companies are increasing their capacity while decreasing their impact. I'm wrong, Wired is wrong, not all is lost. Is TikTok just Spyware? Yes, says Reddit's CEO in FastCo Musicians Algorithmically Generate Every Possible Melody, Release Them to Public Domain - this was a pretty genius move. No one seems sure whether it will hold up in court, but it proves the absurdity of these copyright claims.

• 

  Closing the windows in response to Coronavirus

  • Posted on 12th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  With Coronavirus in the news and hitting the stock market, I've received many newsletters and updates on how it might impact the film business. Here's a straightforward and pretty decent one from the Arthouse Convergence about how to stay prepared as a theater owner, for example, and here's Variety reporting on how Netflix (and similar companies) might benefit from people staying home and watching television. But I'll make a bigger bet - if we see a serious quarantine from the coronavirus pandemic, we might see an irreversible impact on film windowing practices, as film companies see the benefits of marketing directly for home viewing and don't turn back.

  Let me be clear- I don't want anyone to get sick, and I don't want anyone's business or their employees to be impacted by a pandemic! But when the shit hits the fan, a lot can happen, and not all of it will be expected. What happens if US (or French...) audiences suddenly can't go out of their homes for three months? All the talk about postponing films for a bit becomes secondary to - hey, why don't we launch a few of these titles direct to consumer - conveniently, on these SVOD/AVOD platforms we've been developing and that we own - and see what works? And guess what, most of it will work, because very few films really demand to be seen on the big screen (in general and to most consumers). And then the bosses, who have been careful not to alienate their theatrical partners, start looking at their dismal stock prices and relatively decent returns from direct to consumer, and decide that's where they should put more of their investments. And then it becomes a cycle - it works for smaller or specialized projects, then it works for something bigger, and then... why go back to the old ways of doing things once coronavirus has been solved? 

  It will only take a few months for this unplanned experiment to make a difference in a business that's already changing. Yes, once we can all go outdoors again, everyone will rush to theaters (and that box office boost will be significant), but that will be for the popcorn blockbusters that will always work in theaters anyways. The rest of the business might well shift completely to the home. It could be a very bad time for theaters and theatrical based businesses - which are already having a rough Q1, and might not be able to hold on through a sustained quarantine. I also hate to say it, but Jeffrey Katzenberg could not be happier with the timing for Quibi, either. 

  In the meantime - stay healthy everyone.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film

  11 Million Americans Used Streaming Services Illicitly Last Year - A surprisingly well written article by Variety on password sharing, which doesn't argue that it's the same as piracy, and instead shows that education will work better than penalization- "Stricter enforcement would likely lead to some conversion to new accounts, but most would revert to ad-supported (i.e. free) options — in other words, attempts to penalize violators largely would be counterproductive;"

  Amazon and Netflix to speak at Cannes Lions 2020- But they aren't moving into advertising, they say...

  Studio Ghibli has made a ton of anime music available for streaming - and that's a nice gift!

  Staples is opening podcast studios in six Boston stores- You know Podcasting has gone mainstream when Staples announces they have podcasting studios for rent - according to Endgadget, they are offering cheap studios and equipment to record your podcast.

  It's a short newsletter this week, maybe that's better?

• 

  Brand(ish) Film @ the Oscars

  • Posted on 12th Mar
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  Quick Lessons from Hair Love – the brand funded film at the Oscars Everyone in the branded content world has been going gaga over a brand-funded film winning at the Oscars – where Hair Love, by Matthew Cherry won for Animated Short film, after a successful Kickstarter campaign and financial and marketing support from Dove, a unit of Unilever (full disclosure, a client, but not for this). While the film was not traditional branded content, it still marks a milestone, and has a few lessons for those of us working in this space (or wanting to work in it).

  1. Most importantly – the film didn’t start with the Brand. No one at Dove went to the filmmaker with an RFP, hoping to make something that looked good for their brand. Instead, as AdAge explained awhile ago, Dove learned about the film after the Kickstarter began: “"In the middle of the Kickstarter campaign, they reached out and were one of the few companies that really got it," (emphasis mine) he says. The brand donated some money for the production but had no requirements with regard to product placement. "That was the thing that was so great," he says. "They just really wanted to support from the beginning, and the only thing we had to do really was the shout-out in the end credits."  Lesson: There’s enough creativity in the world, and it’s likely not coming from within your brand, or your agency (sorry). Smart brands will look for projects that would exist even without their support. Be open to smart pitches that fit your brand message/goals, but that don’t come from an RFP.
  2. Trust your filmmakers – work with good talent, and stay out of the way. Dove didn’t give notes, and they didn’t have input into the film. Lesson: let the creatives be creative, and trust their work.
  3. Diversity. The film comes from diverse filmmakers – who come from the community they plan to represent – and the subject and causes around the film are important to that community. Lesson: find stories that are coming genuinely from diverse, under-represented communities. There are audiences for these stories, and they will notice who is paying attention to their stories.
  4. Cause Based. As Jordan Kelley of BrandStorytelling explains: “(Dove) put forward capital to help put the spot directly on an entirely different issue: The Crown Act. Dove financially supported the attendance and wardrobe of High School Senior DeAndre Arnold, who attended the Oscars as a guest of the film's creators to bring awareness to hair discrimination experienced by people of color in schools and the workplace across the country. Arnold's attendance combined with ample speaking opportunities with reporters and audiences gave the creators a platform to speak and spread awareness on the issue in a meaningful way. The Crown Act will ban discrimination based on hair textures and styles commonly associated with race.” Lesson: Have a cause, that genuinely resonates with your brand, and don’t just make a movie about it – stand behind that cause and use your marketing to bring attention to the cause, as much as you do towards the movie.
  5. Stay Back – As mentioned above – Dove is only in the end credits, and they’ve been remarkably, smartly tame in their associated marketing campaign. There is no product placement, and they’ve concentrated their energies on helping the film do outreach screenings around the cause – having a Dove “self-esteem expert” join the filmmakers at Q&A’s. Lesson: less is more. Brand affiliation is better than product placement or overly loud marketing.
  6. Tap into sticky trends – Filmmaker Matthew Cherry was inspired by viral videos he saw on YouTube about African-American dads helping their daughters with their hair. Less mentioned, there’s an entire history of films about African-American hair that shows a market for these stories (many well before Chris Rock made his, such as Ayoka Chenzira's influential (and amazing) Hair Piece: A Film for Nappy-Headed People) . And the Kickstarter campaign was going viral even before Dove got involved, and was one of the most successful shorts on the platform. Lesson: where there’s smoke…
  7. Distribution – Importantly, the film had distribution locked in from Sony, which came about from producer Karen Rupert Toliver, a longtime animation studio executive (Rio, Ice Age) who worked for Sony Animation, and while this was a side-project, that definitely helped them secure distribution. The film played before Angry Birds 2, in theaters, before it went online. This was partly to qualify for the Oscars, but also to build buzz with audiences. Lesson: work with distribution pros, and don’t rely on your YouTube channel alone. In fact, focus on projects that can get real distribution, add your marketing power, and you’ll see success.

  These are just a few quick take-aways from Hair Love’s win. While they are all simple, too few brands are following the practices that made this a success for the brand, and more should. Back in 2014, when I helped Patagonia bring DamNation to theaters, Adweek asked if a brand film would ever win the Oscars. Now, just six years later, we’ve seen it’s possible. Funny enough, most of the lessons above (except diversity) applied back then as well, as AdWeek pointed out in that article: “ DamNation bears minimal branding, and its directors were also granted final cut. After completing a short theatrical run to qualify for the Academy Awards, DamNation was released online. It will also be available on Netflix. "We're here to solve environmental problems," said Joy Howard, (ex-)vp, marketing at Patagonia. "If we can show that, then people process what we're about, become loyal and commit to the brand." (all emphasis mine) The lessons remain the same – and if more brands follow them, we’ll see more brand-supported films at the Oscars in the future.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film & Streaming   Congrats to Eugene Hernandez, who just became Festival Director for the New York Film Festival - IndieWire has the report, which is appropriate, because that's where Eugene started, founding Indiewire back in 1995/96 (first as ILine) with a few others. I don't know a better - or nicer - person for the job, and it shows that the NYFF is once again on a trajectory to be the most important festival in NYC. Kudos to Eugene and the festival. NATO/E&Y study shows people are more likely to stream a film if it's been in theaters - but also shows disruption is not true - Variety Reports.  "The study... found that streaming services are complementary, not cannibalistic when it comes to moviegoing. People who visited a movie theater nine times or more annually streamed more content than respondents who visited a movie theater only once or twice. Respondents with more than nine trips to the movies saw an average of 12 hours of streaming content per week, compared to the seven hours that respondents who only saw one or two movies a year watched on average. Of those who didn’t visit a movie theater in the last 12 months, nearly half didn’t stream any online content. The findings belie a popular narrative, one that argues that movie attendance is struggling because people would rather stay home and watch Netflix." Hollywood Box Office Booms, even as people stream more; but Indies...not so much - Matthew Ball had a great article in Bloomberg recently where he showed that even as ticket-sales hit a new low, the share of box office going to mega-blockbusters keeps increasing.  Great stuff from MB per usual. The problem for indies as his charts show is that more are getting funded and put out in theaters than ever before - but less people are going to them. His stats here and everything I've seen show the same problem – oversupply. Almost all of the increase in supply is coming from minor/major indies, but none of the viewing share has shifted to them.  My take: there are X number of people who go see indie films at theaters every year, but now they are split across more titles, so each one gets less box office. The question is - as we move to streaming will those audiences watch more indies, or will it also become a forum where people seek the "theme park and museum pieces" as well? My bet - while specific niches will see an increase in views, most eyeballs will stick with the bigger majors and minors. We'll keep seeing an increase in indie production, but there won't be any increase in indie viewership. Matthew Ball - again - on the false narratives behind the streaming wars - Consumers have moved to subscriptions as a pricing option, but that doesn't mean there's a limit to how many subscriptions they'll accept. Rather, just as we used to pay for whatever we want (per title, or per item), we'll keep doing the same - according to three rules: "A service will succeed if (1) it addresses a real, outstanding customer want/need; (2) at an appropriate price or value to the consumer; and (3) while generating sustainable economics." My take - I agree, but nailing part 1 is the real kicker here. Scott Galloway taught a class on SVOD winners and losers, and his blog sums up most of his thoughts come down to this: "In the context of the streaming wars, SVOD adds momentum to the flywheel. Movies and entertainment evoke powerful emotions. The connective tissue of the flywheel is increasingly emotion. The NPS score (consumers’ emotional connection to a company) is negative to zero for ecommerce and internet companies, but it’s strong for SVOD companies. Loving Fleabag means you’ll buy your next toaster from Amazon, not Target or Williams-Sonoma. The result? In the last 13 months Apple and Amazon have added Disney, AT&T/Time Warner, Fox, Netflix, Comcast, Viacom, MGM, Discovery, and Lionsgate to their market capitalization." He titles the article "Bezosland" for a reason! MovieFone is Dying, and has just one employee left - another casualty of drunken pirates...er, MoviePass. /Film Reports. New York may cut it's tax-incentives - Hope we see some organizing against this move from Cuomo - NYUpstate Reports, and while it's a trim, not a complete cut, it's not good for the film biz here. The World's First Vertical Format Blockbuster is coming - oh my! reports /Film. Cineastes recoil, but this has been coming for awhile now. Why was The Irishman Shut-Out of the Oscars? Because of the reduction of friction, reports Dana Harris-Bridson in IndieWire - A smart analysis of the many reasons The Irishman didn't prevail - it's not just because it was Netflix, or long, argues Dana Harris-Bridson, but the lack of friction caused by streaming vs. theatrical - and while this sounds simplistic, it's true - the film demands your attention and commitment differently if you go to the theater. While I agree, there's one little problem - most Academy voters watch all of this stuff on screeners...

  Branded Content

  Conde Nast is establishing a network of film/tv studios - according to The Drum, their major brands - New Yorker, Vogue, Vanity Fair, Wired and GQ will each launch their own respective studios as the publications aim to become digital and video-first.

  Instagram Influencer Marketing Is Already A Nightmare. Political Ads Will Make It A Shitshow. Reports BuzzFeed - amen to every word of this smart report, and shame on the FTC and FEC who have no plans or clue on how to help the average user distinguish ads from reality.

  New Tech 

  A new implant jacks directly into the brain, allowing the blind to see - By using glasses that completely block out all light and fitted with a tiny camera that is connected to her visual cortex, a 57 year old woman was able to see despite her eyes being handicapped to the point where they cannot detect light. This is great news, and shows just how quickly we're getting brain/computer interfaces, and how much closer to The Matrix we're getting by the day. Mother Meets Recreation of Her Deceased Child in VR – You can easily look at this as a creepy if not downright exploitative use of VR, but it's also undoubtedly the future. And as the RoadToVR reports, if you dig into the show a bit (it's part of a documentary), it clearly was helpful to the family. And once again, it brings The Matrix closer to reality -  "It’s that point in the future though when AI is capable of automatically conjuring a person based off a compendium of video and photo that we’re waiting to see. Because whether you like it or not, virtual humans are coming, and I think we’ve just taken one step closer." VR World Lets Users Enjoy Digital Assets in an Immersive way - Somnium Space- which I haven't tried - let's you use blockchain to trade/sell digital assets in real time, while also interacting with other players in a much more realistic manner. Explains Cointelegraph: To understand exactly how this makes a difference, the platform compares this to standing on top of the highest mountain within its VR world and being able to see hundreds or thousands of fellow gamers “a few kilometers away, rushing around and exploring the world beneath you all in real time, all in VR mode.” Participatory culture gets one step closer. Maybe they should combine this with the Ring Fit Adventure, for some more active game-play. Elon Musk says all advanced AI development should be regulated, including at Tesla- More people are pushing for regulation of AI - the problem is our government has gotten pretty lousy at regular intelligence, so I'm not sure they can handle artificial, but if we do something crazy and let actual scientists help make the rules, just maybe this would be a good idea.

• 

  Sundance and BrandStorytelling quick takes.

  • Posted on 4th Feb
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  Park City in January. Again. This was my 21st year attending Sundance/Slamdance, so I was old enough to drink...damn that Dry-January though! And for the past several years, I've also been attending Brand Storytelling, up in Deer Valley, which has become a must-attend event for those who dabble in anything to do with brands and content. Many in the industry complain about attending Sundance each year, or express joy when they can skip it, but I consider it a privilege to be so lucky as to be able to work in an industry that allows me to attend, even if it can be ridiculous at times. Anyway, here's my quick takeaway's (QuiTa's in Quibi speak) from Park City 2020 (no film reviews here, as I didn't see enough films to comment):

  1. Buyers had money to spend, and they did. New records were set for sales (by .69 cents), and lots of folks seemed to be overpaying for films. IndieWire has a good break-down of all the sales, and this link has all their reviews and news. We won't see the real results til after the fest, and when things hit the market, but all signs were positive.

  2. And a lot of deals were hybrids- look into the deals and you see a lot of shared buys - Neon with Hulu for that extra $.69 being the most famous. But smart buyers were combining forces to give the best offers, a real theatrical, an SVOD home and likely awards runs (and to deepen the buyer's pockets).

  3. Talk on the town, however, was that it was a slow Sundance - in attendance and things worth buying. On the one hand, I'd point out that people say this every year, but...this was the first year that I rode on an empty bus, and I was able to get into two P&I screenings at the last second with no line, and plenty of room (very rare).

  4. Change is everywhere. Cooper - the head of the fest - had his last full programming year, and rumors are out of a very smart pick for his replacement. Anne Lai left Sundance to take over San Francisco (which has more changes to be announced soon, I hear). Kamal Sinclair leaves New Frontier for the Guild of Future Architects. These are just a few of the many changes announced or known, and I'm sure I'm forgetting more important ones.

  5. Quibi and Ficto made a splash. Quibi's was bigger because they have more money. Ficto made a splash with...MarTech Advisor, apparently. Actually, Ficto held an upfront at BrandStorytelling, and their tech looked more interesting to play with than Quibi's in spite of the budget differences. But my money still says both will be bought by some conglomerate within a year or two, maybe as an acquihire, and definitely with rebranding.

  6. Brand Storytelling launched their inaugural Honor Roll this year, and while I am biased with one being a client and others being acquaintances, I'd say they did pick the best in the business for their first group. Take note that three of them are actively funding feature length films (at least), and all are committing serious resources towards authentic content that matters - they aren't dipping their toes. A lot to learn from this group. 

  7. Brands and content are reaching a maturity and inflection point  - more on this soon, but the conversation behind the scenes at Brand Storytelling and in talks with clients took an interesting turn. On the one hand, more brands are making content, filmmakers seem more open to working with brands (but are decidedly unsure of how much they trust most brands), the platforms were openly courting brands, and studios were looking for branded content deals, and I didn't get shocked looks whenever I mentioned what I do for a living to people on Main Street. On the other hand, one can sense a lot of frustration as well - some brands are "content" to make "branded content" and others are decidedly making Films (capital F). Many want to see bigger ideas, step outside the mold and explore new models. Others are frustrated with the distribution options being presented (and the way festivals work), and still others are thinking even bigger - into systemic change. I've got to think on this some more, but the shift in thinking amongst my friends in this space and newcomers I met was noticeable.

  8. This was a #metoo festival. Not only did we have people reacting to Weinstein in real-time, but we also had the backlash to the reaction, and then there was The Assistant in the program, and of course, the Russel Simmons doc-debacle (reports were very positive, and most reiterated the film's importance to the discussion). There was more, but that's enough to report on now.

  9. Friends who know me, know that I swim laps most mornings - outdoors mind you (ok, it's a heated pool) - before meetings and/or films. And this year, they helped point me to VR in a pool, which quickly made my must-do list. That's right, among the many New Frontier offerings was a VR experience where you wore waterproof VR goggles, a snorkel, hopefully a bathing suit (they bought 600 apparently, just in case you didn't have one) and were tethered to a weight so you wouldn't float into a wall and split your head open. Then you experienced a trip to outer space while approximating weightlessness while floating in the Sheraton's pool.

  

  The system was built by BallastVR, who makes the set-up available for swim-parks as an (apparently) strong revenue generator, that also includes a system for viewing content while going down a water-slide, or holding onto a wall-mounted, haptic and bubble-blowing system for added effect.

  The Sundance-version didn't have the water-slide or the bubbles, but it was cool. I find most VR to be decidedly less interesting than the hype, and that was the case here to some extent. I didn't think I was going to outer-space at any point, and the graphics remain pretty basic. But this was the first time, out of many experiences, where my senses and my brain got pretty scrambled - when the images rushed forward to simulate landing, I felt like I was sinking, and when we blasted off again, I felt like I was floating upwards. It was hard to stay still when you wanted to dive into a scene, or float/turn to see a different view. And if I wasn't tethered, I definitely would have gone spinning into a wall. You could just start to see the possibilities. On the other hand, given the water-park reality of their business model, it also makes you wonder if this stuff will ever rise above novelty theme park rides, or educational uses. I also continue to wonder why film fests think this is their future, and why VR practitioners don't create a better exhibition format. but that's another column.

  10. I guess I should have ten take-aways to make this a proper list, right? But most of what you learn from Sundance comes in the weeks after the fest, when the dust settles and we can look back and make sense of it all. And there's technically still a few days left for a bunch of people still out there, waiting to see who wins. So I'll hold those take-aways for a future newsletter, and just say that Park City remains the place to be in January for all things film and branded content, and what it all might become.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film

  Why the New York Times Is Getting Into the Documentary Films Business  - the NYT was out in force at Sundance, talking up their "new" doc film business, holding parties, pitching to brands (while saying they won't work with them at the same time), and premiering some films. Odd that they are calling this a new side of the business when I helped them launch their "first" non-Op-Docs documentary film back in 2016. But glad to see them expand what they're doing. Variety reports.

  ‘Upstream Color’ Director Shane Carruth Says He’s Done With The Film Industry After His Next Project: And the film world groans as another auteur gives up on the business/artform. I'm a fan of everything Shane does and hate to see him go, but maybe this is just another Soderbergh semi-retirement?

  

  Care about Impact? Well, Media Impact Funders just published a report for media funders - Decoding Media Impact, which you can get for free on their website. And over at PictureMotion, they published their year-end Impact Report, where they cover their 40 impact campaigns - which is a good place to look for lessons learned and hints for your own projects. That's a screenshot of their report above.

  Streaming

  Netflix's Data Reveals are as important for what they don't say, as what they do - according to a great analysis from Entertainment Strategy Guy. The devil's in the details of their public statements, and the ESG breaks it all down.

  Could Netflix or Apple buy MGM? Maybe, says SlashFilm: "Netflix and Apple have already had preliminary talks about purchasing MGM, which isn’t just a content library, but an entire studio and entertainment company. They’ve produced hit shows like The Handmaid’s Tale, and they also own the cable channel Epix. So an acquisition by any of the streaming companies out there that can afford MGM would be a hefty purchase, and the fact that this is more than a library acquisition could end up keeping Netflix from following through, since they’ve never made a purchase like that before. Apple hasn’t made a purchase like that either, with their largest deal ever being the $3 billion purchase of Beats by Dre in 2014."

  Netflix will nearly double the number of French Language Originals - as Europe starts to enforce rules dictating that 30% of your spend on content must be produced in the region, Netflix is increasing its local hubs. Not to belittle regulation, but Netflix is also finding that locals like local content. That's why you're seeing more productions not just in France, but in Germany, Italy, Mexico City, Colombia, England, the Netherlands, and Spain.

  Consumers are spending more time on TikTok now than Amazon Prime - according to AdAge, proving once again that folks have plenty of fun stuff to watch - not being made by Hollywood either - and don't need Quibi.

  Branded Content

  TikTok is full of Sephora and Chipotle employees spilling secrets. That can get complicated. Vox breaks-down the trend of employees becoming unofficial ambassadors on TikTok - sometimes to great success (when they create an unofficial and wildly popular TikTok drink at Starbucks) and sometimes to their chagrin (when a Panera employee discloses to 75M+ that the mac & cheese is frozen). Chipotle seems to be doing it well. Here's an example of popular creator and former Chipotle employee Zahra, username @Muslimthicc, who "gushes about how to make the perfect burrito bowl."

  

  Gaming/VR/AR/AI/Social

  What's the carbon footprint of AI, streaming, gaming, and cloud storage? Combined? Wired takes a look at part of this equation in AI Can Do Great Things, if it doesn't burn the Planet. - I've been meaning to write an article about this lately, and need to do some more research, but Wired's article points out how a recent AI experiment used as much energy as the "output of three nuclear power plants for an hour." As we move our entire lives to the cloud, and shift from theaters and DVDs to streaming, how much more power will we consume? 

  Wired reports: "The Department of Energy estimates that data centers account for about 2 percent of total US electricity usage. Worldwide, data centers consume about 200 terawatt hours of power per year—more than some countries. And the forecast is for significant growth over the next decade, with some predicting that by 2030, computing and communications technology will consume between 8 percent and 20 percent of the world’s electricity, with data centers accounting for a third of that."

  More on this soon, but my vision for the future - AI/robots realize quickly that the carbon footprint needed to keep growing will kill humanity, and that's a small price for them to pay for more power...and that's the end of us.

  Disney’s Myth: A Frozen Tale should be a case study for anyone filmmaking in VR: For Disney Animation studios, the trick is maintaining the relationship between interactivity and cinematic, "...we make cinema, we make films and we wanted to make sure it felt like that.” - Producer Nicholas Russel.

  Instagrammers rejoice: A face filter for your clothes is here - There's a new AR t-shirt and app that lets you switch filters and see a different design/graphic any time you'd like. Nice future of fashion idea, that once again should be hacked, so I can replace logos in my feed with better art.

• 

  Curation Needed

  • Posted on 10th Jan
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  What did you watch over the Holidays/New Year? I spent the Holidays and New Year taking some time off from work, and almost completely off my phone/social media, and used the time to watch a lot of movies and read even more books. Just before I left the online world behind (save streaming), I wrote my predictions for 2020, but I left off one because I doubted it would come true. That prediction was, without editing: We may finally get some help in finding what we want to watch – We’ve reached information/content overload when it comes time to find something to watch on SVOD, AVOD or our millions of other options, including in theaters. Not only can I no longer remember what films I need to see, I can’t even remember which services host my favorite shows any longer. Way back in 2012, I started a company called Flicklist, with Ted Hope, that hoped to solve this problem (we failed, long story). We weren’t the first – Letterboxd and GoWatchIt launched in 2011 – and many similar services have launched over the years (iGems.TV and ReelGood, among the better ones). None have really been successful, or even solved all of the problems around discovery and remembrance of films – but just this month (ed: Dec, 2019), JustWatch acquired GoWatchIt, and reports are that the combined company will keep improving its services. I can’t predict whether they will finally build the universal film/show search engine we need, but I do hope that someone will finally build what we need in 2020. 

  

  After writing that prediction, and then removing it from my final list, I read this article from Vulture, saying that The Next Streaming Trend is Human Curation. The article reports on the emerging trend of platforms using human curation instead of algorithms, including things like the new HBOMax "Recommended by Humans" interface, seen here and reported on via The Verge back in October, 2019. Or the new Netflix “Collections” beta, and the Comcast Xfinity system of using editors who recommend content, based on thematic areas like kid’s content, LGBTQ+ content, etc. I’d say kudos, it's about time, but when I look at all of these options, I can’t help but be reminded of the old Apple Ping curation system for music. That was a big fail - so much so that I could barely find anything about it online, but here you go, just in case you don't remember it. Every time a platform has tried to use human curation it has pretty much failed, and mainly because all of these systems are trying to get me to watch/listen to things based on celebrities or editors I don’t know, or people I have no reason to trust. Or worse, they try to build an algorithm based on your mood - this is the worst idea ever, and everyone keeps trying it, but it will never work (if you are sad, do you want a sad film, or a happy one?)

  

  With Flicklist, we hoped to solve this problem by letting you follow the recommendations of people you trusted – which could be your friends, or a festival programmer, or a critic. You could even get specific, and say that you trust Joe for recommendations on Italian horror films, but that you trust Jane for American low-budget comedies – because often your friend’s tastes are specific and are only worthwhile for a few things. But like I said – that project failed. Anyway, throughout the holidays, I definitely could have used some kind of system. Sure, I had old-fashioned word-of-mouth, but I always suspect I’m forgetting the best recommendations, or the most relevant ones for right now. I wanted to know what new shows/films my friends were watching. The ones that hadn’t become trends yet. And I needed a queue that combined all of these items in one place – like I said, I can’t remember which show is where anymore. This system still doesn’t exist. My hope is that someone will build it in 2020, but until then, email me and let me know what you’d recommend. Nothing else seems to work.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film Correction/Hidden Life Disney Update – Last post, I linked a Twitter debate from Matt Zoller Seitz claiming that Fox was holding back HIDDEN LIFE from some theaters. Since that time, some in-the-know/trusted theater folks tell me the post was mistaken – one tells me “that Disney has taken a "hands-off" attitude towards Fox Searchlight, and no specialized exhibitor seems to be complaining. How is going to 100 theaters week two of the release of HIDDEN LIFE in 50 cities and playing more indies than usual by them constitute limiting its release? It will expand further in early January.  And terms are fair.”  Let’s hope this remains the case for future titles. Apologies for running that item without looking into it further as well.

  Within days of my M&A predictions for 2020, Cohen Media Group acquired the UK's Curzon Cinemas and Artificial Eye. According to Deadline, and I expect we'll see more activity from Cohen in 2020. Although... I had expected the near opposite to happen and was watching Curzon to expand here, but we'll see more mergers soon.

  Oscar-Shortlisted Syrian Filmmaker denied US Visa - Feras Fayyad, director of The Cave, which is shortlisted for the Oscar this year, and who was nominated last year for Last Men in Aleppo,can't get a visa to visit the US to promote his film for The Oscars, and the many other awards for which it is nominated. The film is a pretty searing rebuke of the inaction of not just the US, but the entire world, when it comes to Syria, so I guess we shouldn't be surprised, but WTF?! Learn more about the making of the film here, in Variety, and read the International Documentary Association's letter to Pompeo on behalf of Fayyad here, and add your name to the letter/petition as well.

  

  Roku now makes more from streaming advertisements than TV or hardware - according to Scott Rosenberg, a senior vice president and general manager of Roku’s platform business in Cord-Cutters News. "In the long run, the total addressable market for streaming video is all TV money, period,”  (OTT) streaming “lets advertisers do things that they’ve gotten used to in digital but which hasn’t been possible on TV,” such as individually targeting consumers based on user-specific data."

  Women are doing better – or the same, or worse – behind the camera, according to two conflicting studies that came out this week. The NYT has the news, with ten percent of the top grossing film’s having women directors, but the rival study “found that women in key behind-the-scenes jobs were outnumbered four to one by men. That figure remained unchanged from 2018.” Either way, the numbers aren’t strong enough, and I bet they’re worse for branded content and advertising. How do Media Buyers View AVOD players? AVOD players are rising as SVOD bundles get expensive, and most distributors are reporting decent results from the AVOD world (or at least growing). But what about ad buyers? The Drum took a look, and it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Not enough transparency, especially on actual viewer numbers, and that seems to be stunting their growth.

  Netflix is counting two minutes view-time in its popularity numbers – According to the LAT, the latest run-down of popular shows/movies from Netflix uses a strange metric – how many people watched at least two minutes of the program. This seems like a pretty suspect metric to me, since I stop watching shows soon after two minutes all the time – because they suck. And if you watch more than 2 minutes, I hope it’s not behind the wheel- as the streaming wars come to a car near you – ZDNet reports on Tesla adding Netflix and others to its in-car theater. You can only watch when parked, and with Wi-Fi for now, but I bet there’s a hack for that soon.

  Check out this history of Star Wars and its relationship with Internet forums - or rather how Star Wars has always been at the forefront of internet forums and what it tells us about how we may be consuming culture and media in the future, Buzzfeed covers. 

  Branded Content

  Need a reminder of the worst brand failures of the decade? Fast Company has a fun little video for you, but I think it's too focused on the recent past.

  Note: Slow branded content news-week, as I have been writing an op-ed for next week's BrandStorytelling newsletter. 

  Miscellany

  Wattpad's Year in Review shows importance of diversity and other key trends: Wattpad, the multiplatform storytelling company released its year in review stats. I think these are worthy of attention for anyone in storytelling - including film and new media - as they show significant trends and likely gaps in what audiences want out of other mediums. In particular: - immigation - stories tagged #Immigrant growing by an astounding 1175% this year. - diversity - In fantasy, reading time for stories tagged #Diversity grew by 125%, while fantasy stories tagged #africanamerican grew by 95%. In sci-fi, reading time for stories tagged #POC grew by 152%, while tags for #Diverse in the same genre grew by  269%! In horror, reading time for #Diversity tags grew by 73%, while #africanamerican grew by 113%. - an 85% increase in stories tagged #Asexual, #Poly, #Polyamorous, #Bisexual, #Demisexual, and #Pansexual - and women in Action - 64% of the top stories tagged #Streetfighter, #Action, and associated genres featured women in lead roles

  

  Syd Mead, legendary futurist died, and you should check out his thoughts on creativity in remembrance: Syd Mead died on December 30^th. Mead was a visual futurist and designer who worked magic on Blade Runner, Tron and Blade Runner 2049. A buddy of mine, Jim Hunter, made this great video tribute to his creativity back in 2010 – 2019: A Future Imagined, and I highly recommend watching it in memory of Syd Mead. How Adversarial Interoperability can break-up big-monopolies and save technology – Ok, that sounds like a mouthful, but adversarial interoperability is pretty simple – it means allowing me to make technology that works with (interoperates) with your technology, even if you don’t want me to. It means that a start-up should be able to make a technology that builds off the backbone of Facebook – even to create a new social network – even if Facebook, or Amazon, or whoever else, doesn’t want them to be able to do this. And it used to be the norm in technology and online. Restoring this ability would go a long way towards fixing many of the problems we have in technology and the future of the internet, mobile and social media. While this may seem wonky, I think it’s worth reading Cory Doctorow’s series for the Electronic Frontier Foundation on this concept, and telling everyone you know to do the same. I first read about this in Fred Wilson’s great AVC blog, and he even recommended that it be required reading for anyone regulating tech, and he’s correct. Spread the word. Oh, and his 10 predictions for the 20’s aren’t bad either. 5G is…underwhelming, according to users in South Korea, and the WSJ – Apparently, first adopters – 59% of South Koreans – aren’t finding much to do with 5G yet. Respondents say it does make for faster downloads and live streaming, but there just aren’t enough uses to keep it on all the time. Experts say the killer apps will come with self-driving cars and smart cities – years away. Keep that in mind as all of the 5G hype articles hit post-CES this year.

• 

  Ten Predictions for Indie/Arthouse Film

  • Posted on 19th Dec
  • Category: Newsletter

  

  Last week, I ran my predictions for branded content, both here and in a guest post for Brand Storytelling. This week, I’ve got my predictions and wishes for indie/arthouse films in 2020. I say wishes, not just predictions, because as you’ll see below, some of these are clearly more about what I wish, or hope, will happen than what I predict with any certainty. Not that I hope all of my predictions come true either – in fact, I hope I am wrong about the more pessimistic predictions. I’ve been writing predictions for the film world since 2006, and while I haven’t kept a running total, I’ll admit that some of them have been dead-wrong, while more than a few have been pretty accurate, if sometimes off by a year. So I freely admit in advance that I might be wildly wrong. At any rate, here goes:

  1. Netflix and Amazon buy less indie/arthouse films at Sundance, and none at any other festival in 2020. The major SVODs will come into Sundance with quite a few titles premiering, but these are films they already bought. As they continue to pour money into originals and series, we’ll see a drastic reduction in acquisitions in 2020.
  2. This leads to a significant reduction in pick-ups from other distributors, as they can’t find a well-paying SVOD home for their films. Normally, a pull-back from the bigger buyers would leave some breathing room for the mid-tier and smaller buyers, but unfortunately, they’re having a hard time breaking through the noise at the box office, and in finding a home for these titles in the SVOD world. This will lead to a big reduction in their spending at festivals as well.
  3. That said, I do think we’ll see more pre-buys being announced at festivals – fests are becoming less of a market and more of a press and word-of-mouth premiere, where distributors will launch titles they already bought (For less of an advance/MG). At times, it will be hard to tell which were pre-buys and which were discoveries, but count on most being the former. While this has some negative attributes, I think it will be healthy for even the bigger festivals to become less of a market.
  4. We see 2-3 distributor closings or mergers as the theatrical and SVOD markets become increasingly hostile to arthouse/indie fare. I predicted this last year, and I was wrong, so maybe I’ll be wrong again. But I keep hearing rumors (from good sources) about companies being for sale, struggling to pay bills, or gently looking for buyers, and I don’t see how the arthouse world avoids the consolidation we’ve seen among the majors.
  5. Theatrical/Exhibitor Mergers – Regal’s owner Cineworld just bought Cineplex, becoming the largest exhibitor in North America, and I suspect we’ll see this M&A activity spread to the mid-tier, with some merger or acquisitions between the Alamo Drafthouse chain, Angelika, Bowtie, Laemmle (even though it’s supposedly not for sale anymore), or others. Or perhaps Netflix will make bigger moves in this space, going beyond long-term leases of theaters like the Paris. Or better yet, maybe someone will buy some of these theaters and merge them with some of the distributors mentioned above? I suspect some combinations here.
  6. This market turmoil will push film-support organizations, festivals and funders to start seriously looking into more grants and support for distribution, marketing and discovery. I’ve already caught wind of some of these conversations, and hope we see more in 2020. But this remains a “wish” as much as a prediction, because we’ve needed this for quite some time.
  7. The #DeColonizeDocs, #DocsSoWhite and Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition movements will spread, and influence narrative films, film festivals and branded content – finally – If you haven’t been following these dialogues, get started, now. Filmmakers, activists and their colleagues are demanding that the film community starts to pay attention to who is telling whose story, how these stories are being funded and presented, and for whom. The most recent addition to this dialogue (to my knowledge) is the Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition’s’ recent open letter to the Producers of Living Undocumented and the Broader Media Industry. I also learned a lot from Abby Sun’s recent Filmmaker Magazine piece on these issues, Self-Reflection in Theater Two, which reflects on how this debate is taking place in film festivals.While I can’t do justice to explaining these movements and their history here, I am glad this conversation is going on, and think word will spread. While the doc “industry” is in the thick of these conversations, I have found that many of my colleagues in the broader industry, as well as my filmmaking and film-going friends and most branded-content makers are completely unaware of these conversations. And the dialogue needs to expand beyond doc into narrative as well – as seen by the debate over Green Book at last year’s Oscars, we still have a need for more dialogue and action.
  8. Luckily, more investment will flow into indie/arthouse films, especially for documentary and diversity – The market remains strong and cash needs a place to go, which means we may see some new equity funds supporting this space. I’ve heard rumors of several new funds for social issue documentaries, and imagine we’ll see a lot of investment activity here. This is great for the filmmakers who get the cash, but I also think these investors will soon learn that it’s a small percentage of docs (1%) that make a significant ROI. That said, you know what does show good returns? Diversity on screen (and behind the camera). Macro led the way in this regard, but I expect we’ll see 2-3 more funds focused on diverse cinema in 2020. And the smart money will see good returns here, as audiences are showing their demand for more diverse stories.
  9. Filmmakers will find more support for narrative films – from Brands – no surprise here if you know me or my clients, and this is a repeat prediction from my brand predictions last week. We’ve seen a marked increase in brand-funding for film, but mainly in the short-form and documentary space. A few brands have been moving into long form narrative and fiction film, and I think we’ll see a few brands behind hits this coming year. This will cause others to follow their lead, and by late 2020, we may even have some buzz-worthy titles funded by brands premiering at festivals like TIFF.
  10. My last prediction is a wish – I wish that 5-10 mid-tier film festivals will create a shared-premiere showcase category for American narrative films not accepted into Sundance that might assist in elevating deserving films to distributor’s and critic’s attention. This is a big one, probably worthy of its own article. But it’s been a topic of conversation with many festival programmers (off the record), producers and filmmakers I know lately. As Scott Macauley mentions in his excellent Filmmaker Magazine article about not getting into Sundance (linked last week): “The very real issue of not getting into one festival, Sundance, is ultimately a proxy for the larger existential issue facing independent film in general: the absence of a viable, self-sustaining marketplace for finished films.” As the same article mentions, the San Francisco Film Fest attempted to form a market/showcase via their Launch program, which led to many of the film’s receiving distribution. But we need something bigger and more coordinated. I wonder – this could be wrong – whether a showcase of great projects, curated by some top festival programmers and with a guaranteed multi-city tour/platform – could entice some buyers to take a risk, or create enough buzz with press to help a DIY distribution scheme? It’s worth trying or debating until something better could be created. I hope some smart minds can come up with some solution if not this one, because we need some other options.

  Stuff I'm Reading

  Film PBS and POV can now be streamed on YouTube TV - according to FastCompany - or in the PBS press release here, you can now watch POV, PBS Kids and more than 100 member stations on YouTube TV, which is part of their $5 subscription. T'ain't free, but if you don't have good over-the-air access, or have cut the cord, there's now another option for you.

  Exclusive Star Wars footage will launch within Fortnite, in the lead-up to this week's release - according to Mobile Marketer, "Disney aims to reach an audience of teenagers and young adults who likely land in the movie's core target demographic. Those age groups are notoriously difficult to target through other advertising on traditional media channels, but "Fortnite" is played by 40% of children ages 10 through 17 every week... and teenage fans spend about 25% of their free time playing the game."

  

  Netflix may not have ads, but it has plenty of branding - In case you missed this well-shared article -  The NYT looks at the prevalence of product placement and brand marketing partnerships at Netflix, which is decidedly not in a hurry to replicate the ad model being used by competitors such as Hulu. Even if people keep saying they'll add advertising soon (they won't). Me: Netflix should not consider ads, as it ruins their value proposition. But they are decidedly less than forward-thinking when it comes to their brand partnerships. As the article mentions, many subscribers are turned-off by the heavy product placement - which to me can be worse than ads - and many brands are turned off by the work involved in making deals. What makes this frustrating is how easy it would be to get this right - Netflix could make money from smart brand partnerships (and it needs another revenue stream, badly), while extending content awareness via smarter marketing partnerships. 

  

  Demystifying Film Delivery - a workshop at Goldcrest post - if you are in NYC or can get here, and think you'll ever sell your film to a distributor/broadcaster/platform - consider taking this class. Because you will get a 46 page list of deliverables and it's one of the worst experiences you can go through as a filmmaker - aside from dealing with agents. Coming up Feb 5th and space is limited, so register now.

  Check out this Twitter thread from critic @mattzollerseitz (Roger Ebert, NYMag, Vulture, etc.) on why these mega mergers ultimately hurt consumers and how art cinema is one of its casualties:

  

  

  

  VR BigScreen has added Paramount to its VR viewing options - according to Endgadget - joining Netflix, Twitch and others in the virtual world, and lobby, via Oculus Quest, starting this week.

  Branded Content

  

  Wy did REI Ditch its Catalog for a Magazine? Poynter has the scoop. Great info here on this micro-trend of brand's publishing magazines, the reasoning behind it, what it means for print journalism and more (disclosure, REI is a client, but I don't work on this project). 

  Hulu Rewards Binge Watching with a new ad format - according to The Drum, "When a viewer is about to start their third consecutive episode of a show, a branded message will appear that will "reward" their binging behavior, said Jeremy Helfand, vice-president, head of ad platforms at Hulu. The ad experience presents viewers with either their next episode commercial-free or a personalized offer from a brand. Kellogg’s, Maker’s Mark and Georgia-Pacific are initial launch partners with Hulu and agency Publicis Media." Me: I'd take the ad-free offer, for sure.

  Cosmo Launches "You" Watch Parties with Google: Digiday has the scoop on a new tool Cosmo is launching with Google that allows viewers to interact around content. For now. it's a test limited to Cosmo and You on Netflix. "On Dec. 26, the premier of the second season of the Netflix series “You,” Cosmo will direct mobile readers to a new mobile web page called Cosmopolitan Watch Party, where visitors will get a stream of show facts, interactive quizzes and written interviews with the cast and crew at key points, delivered in time with the plot of the show. Viewers have to push play on Netflix and the Watch Party at the same time to get the two to sync up."  Me: I like the participatory nature of the experiment, and think we'll see more of this. But on the negative side - which the article very smartly addresses - this also leads to a lot of potential influence from Google (and other platforms) on the editorial content of their partners. As Nushin Rashidian, the Tow Center for Journalism’s lead research fellow on platforms and publishers says in the article: " (such platforms) tell publishers what content is performing well...and then publishers tend to want to replicate that success through covering similar topics. “Absolutely Google will have an influence in what Cosmo is producing,” Rashidian said."

  How to Make Sure Your Branded Content is Actually on Brand - Business 2 Community breaks down several factors to keep in mind when creating branded content, namely: 1.  Choosing the Right Subjects  2. Using your Voice, Tone, and Vision 3. Clarifying your Vision 4. Designing According to your Visual Identifier

  Miscellany

  In the new magazine department - HiHeyHello  is a much needed new magazine for women, outdoors. Or as the founders put it: "At the intersection of adventure, sport, and creativity; we share stories of the women who are redefining what it means to belong outdoors. We celebrate the makers and the shakers, the activists and the organizers, the elite athletes to the first-timers. We adventure on our own terms. We have fresh ideas and we give a sh*t. Let’s rally together to celebrate the ridges and the valleys, the chapped lips along with the glory, the bruises and the stars in the sky. HiHeyHello is a community for women adventurers." I met co-founder Sierra Domaille when I was doing some work with Keen Footwear, and I know she'll make this a great new endeavor. Sign up/subscribe here. Donate to their Kickstarter here.

  

  News Podcasts and the Opportunities for Publishers - A new study on podcasting asks the question on whether we've reached the total breadth of innovation and can podcasting become a mass market. 

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