Ten Predictions for Indie/Arthouse Film
Last week, I ran my predictions for branded content, both here and in a guest post for Brand Storytelling. This week, I’ve got my predictions and wishes for indie/arthouse films in 2020. I say wishes, not just predictions, because as you’ll see below, some of these are clearly more about what I wish, or hope, will happen than what I predict with any certainty. Not that I hope all of my predictions come true either – in fact, I hope I am wrong about the more pessimistic predictions. I’ve been writing predictions for the film world since 2006, and while I haven’t kept a running total, I’ll admit that some of them have been dead-wrong, while more than a few have been pretty accurate, if sometimes off by a year. So I freely admit in advance that I might be wildly wrong. At any rate, here goes:
- Netflix and Amazon buy less indie/arthouse films at Sundance, and none at any other festival in 2020. The major SVODs will come into Sundance with quite a few titles premiering, but these are films they already bought. As they continue to pour money into originals and series, we’ll see a drastic reduction in acquisitions in 2020.
- This leads to a significant reduction in pick-ups from other distributors, as they can’t find a well-paying SVOD home for their films. Normally, a pull-back from the bigger buyers would leave some breathing room for the mid-tier and smaller buyers, but unfortunately, they’re having a hard time breaking through the noise at the box office, and in finding a home for these titles in the SVOD world. This will lead to a big reduction in their spending at festivals as well.
- That said, I do think we’ll see more pre-buys being announced at festivals – fests are becoming less of a market and more of a press and word-of-mouth premiere, where distributors will launch titles they already bought (For less of an advance/MG). At times, it will be hard to tell which were pre-buys and which were discoveries, but count on most being the former. While this has some negative attributes, I think it will be healthy for even the bigger festivals to become less of a market.
- We see 2-3 distributor closings or mergers as the theatrical and SVOD markets become increasingly hostile to arthouse/indie fare. I predicted this last year, and I was wrong, so maybe I’ll be wrong again. But I keep hearing rumors (from good sources) about companies being for sale, struggling to pay bills, or gently looking for buyers, and I don’t see how the arthouse world avoids the consolidation we’ve seen among the majors.
- Theatrical/Exhibitor Mergers – Regal’s owner Cineworld just bought Cineplex, becoming the largest exhibitor in North America, and I suspect we’ll see this M&A activity spread to the mid-tier, with some merger or acquisitions between the Alamo Drafthouse chain, Angelika, Bowtie, Laemmle (even though it’s supposedly not for sale anymore), or others. Or perhaps Netflix will make bigger moves in this space, going beyond long-term leases of theaters like the Paris. Or better yet, maybe someone will buy some of these theaters and merge them with some of the distributors mentioned above? I suspect some combinations here.
- This market turmoil will push film-support organizations, festivals and funders to start seriously looking into more grants and support for distribution, marketing and discovery. I’ve already caught wind of some of these conversations, and hope we see more in 2020. But this remains a “wish” as much as a prediction, because we’ve needed this for quite some time.
- The #DeColonizeDocs, #DocsSoWhite and Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition movements will spread, and influence narrative films, film festivals and branded content – finally – If you haven’t been following these dialogues, get started, now. Filmmakers, activists and their colleagues are demanding that the film community starts to pay attention to who is telling whose story, how these stories are being funded and presented, and for whom. The most recent addition to this dialogue (to my knowledge) is the Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition’s’ recent open letter to the Producers of Living Undocumented and the Broader Media Industry. I also learned a lot from Abby Sun’s recent Filmmaker Magazine piece on these issues, Self-Reflection in Theater Two, which reflects on how this debate is taking place in film festivals.While I can’t do justice to explaining these movements and their history here, I am glad this conversation is going on, and think word will spread. While the doc “industry” is in the thick of these conversations, I have found that many of my colleagues in the broader industry, as well as my filmmaking and film-going friends and most branded-content makers are completely unaware of these conversations. And the dialogue needs to expand beyond doc into narrative as well – as seen by the debate over Green Book at last year’s Oscars, we still have a need for more dialogue and action.
- Luckily, more investment will flow into indie/arthouse films, especially for documentary and diversity – The market remains strong and cash needs a place to go, which means we may see some new equity funds supporting this space. I’ve heard rumors of several new funds for social issue documentaries, and imagine we’ll see a lot of investment activity here. This is great for the filmmakers who get the cash, but I also think these investors will soon learn that it’s a small percentage of docs (1%) that make a significant ROI. That said, you know what does show good returns? Diversity on screen (and behind the camera). Macro led the way in this regard, but I expect we’ll see 2-3 more funds focused on diverse cinema in 2020. And the smart money will see good returns here, as audiences are showing their demand for more diverse stories.
- Filmmakers will find more support for narrative films – from Brands – no surprise here if you know me or my clients, and this is a repeat prediction from my brand predictions last week. We’ve seen a marked increase in brand-funding for film, but mainly in the short-form and documentary space. A few brands have been moving into long form narrative and fiction film, and I think we’ll see a few brands behind hits this coming year. This will cause others to follow their lead, and by late 2020, we may even have some buzz-worthy titles funded by brands premiering at festivals like TIFF.
- My last prediction is a wish – I wish that 5-10 mid-tier film festivals will create a shared-premiere showcase category for American narrative films not accepted into Sundance that might assist in elevating deserving films to distributor’s and critic’s attention. This is a big one, probably worthy of its own article. But it’s been a topic of conversation with many festival programmers (off the record), producers and filmmakers I know lately. As Scott Macauley mentions in his excellent Filmmaker Magazine article about not getting into Sundance (linked last week): “The very real issue of not getting into one festival, Sundance, is ultimately a proxy for the larger existential issue facing independent film in general: the absence of a viable, self-sustaining marketplace for finished films.” As the same article mentions, the San Francisco Film Fest attempted to form a market/showcase via their Launch program, which led to many of the film’s receiving distribution. But we need something bigger and more coordinated. I wonder – this could be wrong – whether a showcase of great projects, curated by some top festival programmers and with a guaranteed multi-city tour/platform – could entice some buyers to take a risk, or create enough buzz with press to help a DIY distribution scheme? It’s worth trying or debating until something better could be created. I hope some smart minds can come up with some solution if not this one, because we need some other options.
Stuff I'm Reading
Film PBS and POV can now be streamed on YouTube TV - according to FastCompany - or in the PBS press release here, you can now watch POV, PBS Kids and more than 100 member stations on YouTube TV, which is part of their $5 subscription. T'ain't free, but if you don't have good over-the-air access, or have cut the cord, there's now another option for you.
Exclusive Star Wars footage will launch within Fortnite, in the lead-up to this week's release - according to Mobile Marketer, "Disney aims to reach an audience of teenagers and young adults who likely land in the movie's core target demographic. Those age groups are notoriously difficult to target through other advertising on traditional media channels, but "Fortnite" is played by 40% of children ages 10 through 17 every week... and teenage fans spend about 25% of their free time playing the game."
Netflix may not have ads, but it has plenty of branding - In case you missed this well-shared article - The NYT looks at the prevalence of product placement and brand marketing partnerships at Netflix, which is decidedly not in a hurry to replicate the ad model being used by competitors such as Hulu. Even if people keep saying they'll add advertising soon (they won't). Me: Netflix should not consider ads, as it ruins their value proposition. But they are decidedly less than forward-thinking when it comes to their brand partnerships. As the article mentions, many subscribers are turned-off by the heavy product placement - which to me can be worse than ads - and many brands are turned off by the work involved in making deals. What makes this frustrating is how easy it would be to get this right - Netflix could make money from smart brand partnerships (and it needs another revenue stream, badly), while extending content awareness via smarter marketing partnerships.
Demystifying Film Delivery - a workshop at Goldcrest post - if you are in NYC or can get here, and think you'll ever sell your film to a distributor/broadcaster/platform - consider taking this class. Because you will get a 46 page list of deliverables and it's one of the worst experiences you can go through as a filmmaker - aside from dealing with agents. Coming up Feb 5th and space is limited, so register now.
Check out this Twitter thread from critic @mattzollerseitz (Roger Ebert, NYMag, Vulture, etc.) on why these mega mergers ultimately hurt consumers and how art cinema is one of its casualties:
VR BigScreen has added Paramount to its VR viewing options - according to Endgadget - joining Netflix, Twitch and others in the virtual world, and lobby, via Oculus Quest, starting this week.
Branded Content
Wy did REI Ditch its Catalog for a Magazine? Poynter has the scoop. Great info here on this micro-trend of brand's publishing magazines, the reasoning behind it, what it means for print journalism and more (disclosure, REI is a client, but I don't work on this project).
Hulu Rewards Binge Watching with a new ad format - according to The Drum, "When a viewer is about to start their third consecutive episode of a show, a branded message will appear that will "reward" their binging behavior, said Jeremy Helfand, vice-president, head of ad platforms at Hulu. The ad experience presents viewers with either their next episode commercial-free or a personalized offer from a brand. Kellogg’s, Maker’s Mark and Georgia-Pacific are initial launch partners with Hulu and agency Publicis Media." Me: I'd take the ad-free offer, for sure.
Cosmo Launches "You" Watch Parties with Google: Digiday has the scoop on a new tool Cosmo is launching with Google that allows viewers to interact around content. For now. it's a test limited to Cosmo and You on Netflix. "On Dec. 26, the premier of the second season of the Netflix series “You,” Cosmo will direct mobile readers to a new mobile web page called Cosmopolitan Watch Party, where visitors will get a stream of show facts, interactive quizzes and written interviews with the cast and crew at key points, delivered in time with the plot of the show. Viewers have to push play on Netflix and the Watch Party at the same time to get the two to sync up." Me: I like the participatory nature of the experiment, and think we'll see more of this. But on the negative side - which the article very smartly addresses - this also leads to a lot of potential influence from Google (and other platforms) on the editorial content of their partners. As Nushin Rashidian, the Tow Center for Journalism’s lead research fellow on platforms and publishers says in the article: " (such platforms) tell publishers what content is performing well...and then publishers tend to want to replicate that success through covering similar topics. “Absolutely Google will have an influence in what Cosmo is producing,” Rashidian said."
How to Make Sure Your Branded Content is Actually on Brand - Business 2 Community breaks down several factors to keep in mind when creating branded content, namely: 1. Choosing the Right Subjects 2. Using your Voice, Tone, and Vision 3. Clarifying your Vision 4. Designing According to your Visual Identifier
Miscellany
In the new magazine department - HiHeyHello is a much needed new magazine for women, outdoors. Or as the founders put it: "At the intersection of adventure, sport, and creativity; we share stories of the women who are redefining what it means to belong outdoors. We celebrate the makers and the shakers, the activists and the organizers, the elite athletes to the first-timers. We adventure on our own terms. We have fresh ideas and we give a sh*t. Let’s rally together to celebrate the ridges and the valleys, the chapped lips along with the glory, the bruises and the stars in the sky. HiHeyHello is a community for women adventurers." I met co-founder Sierra Domaille when I was doing some work with Keen Footwear, and I know she'll make this a great new endeavor. Sign up/subscribe here. Donate to their Kickstarter here.
News Podcasts and the Opportunities for Publishers - A new study on podcasting asks the question on whether we've reached the total breadth of innovation and can podcasting become a mass market.
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