Ten Predictions for Indie/Arthouse Film

1. Netflix and Amazon buy less indie/arthouse films at Sundance, and none at any other festival in 2020. The major SVODs will come into Sundance with quite a few titles premiering, but these are films they already bought. As they continue to pour money into originals and series, we’ll see a drastic reduction in acquisitions in 2020.
2. This leads to a significant reduction in pick-ups from other distributors, as they can’t find a well-paying SVOD home for their films. Normally, a pull-back from the bigger buyers would leave some breathing room for the mid-tier and smaller buyers, but unfortunately, they’re having a hard time breaking through the noise at the box office, and in finding a home for these titles in the SVOD world. This will lead to a big reduction in their spending at festivals as well.
3. That said, I do think we’ll see more pre-buys being announced at festivals – fests are becoming less of a market and more of a press and word-of-mouth premiere, where distributors will launch titles they already bought (For less of an advance/MG). At times, it will be hard to tell which were pre-buys and which were discoveries, but count on most being the former. While this has some negative attributes, I think it will be healthy for even the bigger festivals to become less of a market.
4. We see 2-3 distributor closings or mergers as the theatrical and SVOD markets become increasingly hostile to arthouse/indie fare. I predicted this last year, and I was wrong, so maybe I’ll be wrong again. But I keep hearing rumors (from good sources) about companies being for sale, struggling to pay bills, or gently looking for buyers, and I don’t see how the arthouse world avoids the consolidation we’ve seen among the majors.
5. Theatrical/Exhibitor Mergers – Regal’s owner Cineworld just bought Cineplex, becoming the largest exhibitor in North America, and I suspect we’ll see this M&A activity spread to the mid-tier, with some merger or acquisitions between the Alamo Drafthouse chain, Angelika, Bowtie, Laemmle (even though it’s supposedly not for sale anymore), or others. Or perhaps Netflix will make bigger moves in this space, going beyond long-term leases of theaters like the Paris. Or better yet, maybe someone will buy some of these theaters and merge them with some of the distributors mentioned above? I suspect some combinations here.
6. This market turmoil will push film-support organizations, festivals and funders to start seriously looking into more grants and support for distribution, marketing and discovery. I’ve already caught wind of some of these conversations, and hope we see more in 2020. But this remains a “wish” as much as a prediction, because we’ve needed this for quite some time.
7. The #DeColonizeDocs, #DocsSoWhite and Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition movements will spread, and influence narrative films, film festivals and branded content – finally – If you haven’t been following these dialogues, get started, now. Filmmakers, activists and their colleagues are demanding that the film community starts to pay attention to who is telling whose story, how these stories are being funded and presented, and for whom. The most recent addition to this dialogue (to my knowledge) is the Undocumented Filmmakers Coalition’s’ recent open letter to the Producers of Living Undocumented and the Broader Media Industry. I also learned a lot from Abby Sun’s recent Filmmaker Magazine piece on these issues, Self-Reflection in Theater Two, which reflects on how this debate is taking place in film festivals.While I can’t do justice to explaining these movements and their history here, I am glad this conversation is going on, and think word will spread. While the doc “industry” is in the thick of these conversations, I have found that many of my colleagues in the broader industry, as well as my filmmaking and film-going friends and most branded-content makers are completely unaware of these conversations. And the dialogue needs to expand beyond doc into narrative as well – as seen by the debate over Green Book at last year’s Oscars, we still have a need for more dialogue and action.
8. Luckily, more investment will flow into indie/arthouse films, especially for documentary and diversity – The market remains strong and cash needs a place to go, which means we may see some new equity funds supporting this space. I’ve heard rumors of several new funds for social issue documentaries, and imagine we’ll see a lot of investment activity here. This is great for the filmmakers who get the cash, but I also think these investors will soon learn that it’s a small percentage of docs (1%) that make a significant ROI. That said, you know what does show good returns? Diversity on screen (and behind the camera). Macro led the way in this regard, but I expect we’ll see 2-3 more funds focused on diverse cinema in 2020. And the smart money will see good returns here, as audiences are showing their demand for more diverse stories.
9. Filmmakers will find more support for narrative films – from Brands – no surprise here if you know me or my clients, and this is a repeat prediction from my brand predictions last week. We’ve seen a marked increase in brand-funding for film, but mainly in the short-form and documentary space. A few brands have been moving into long form narrative and fiction film, and I think we’ll see a few brands behind hits this coming year. This will cause others to follow their lead, and by late 2020, we may even have some buzz-worthy titles funded by brands premiering at festivals like TIFF.
10. My last prediction is a wish – I wish that 5-10 mid-tier film festivals will create a shared-premiere showcase category for American narrative films not accepted into Sundance that might assist in elevating deserving films to distributor’s and critic’s attention. This is a big one, probably worthy of its own article. But it’s been a topic of conversation with many festival programmers (off the record), producers and filmmakers I know lately. As Scott Macauley mentions in his excellent Filmmaker Magazine article about not getting into Sundance (linked last week): “The very real issue of not getting into one festival, Sundance, is ultimately a proxy for the larger existential issue facing independent film in general: the absence of a viable, self-sustaining marketplace for finished films.” As the same article mentions, the San Francisco Film Fest attempted to form a market/showcase via their Launch program, which led to many of the film’s receiving distribution. But we need something bigger and more coordinated. I wonder – this could be wrong – whether a showcase of great projects, curated by some top festival programmers and with a guaranteed multi-city tour/platform – could entice some buyers to take a risk, or create enough buzz with press to help a DIY distribution scheme? It’s worth trying or debating until something better could be created. I hope some smart minds can come up with some solution if not this one, because we need some other options.

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