December 22, 2021
The end of the year is when I usually join the madding crowd and write my top ten predictions for next year (here’s the ones for 2021, 2020, and branded films 2020). But whether I look back or forward, all I see are variants and their impact on every aspect of this business. Variants of covid, of course, or of streamers, or monopolies, or consolidation, or of things competing with movies for our attention. You get the point – what’s old is new again. And a kind of malaise is hitting the business once again.
Especially when it comes to the impact of the variant called Omicron. It shut down a film I was involved with this past week, and I’m sure it wasn’t the only film that was suddenly delayed for safety reasons. Everyone is being hit by it – I feel like every hour, I get a new email from someone I know who was vaxxed and boosted, but was exposed and is isolating and/or is much sicker than people seem to expect. About half of the people I know are shrugging their shoulders and going home for the holidays, and half are locking down again.
Just this week I received the following messages, some from multiple people:
- Are you still going to Sundance? Or the BrandStorytelling conference? (yes, as of now) Or CES? (virtual)
- Will they have to cancel?
- How many people (esp. buyers) do you think will cancel their Sundance attendance because they aren’t excited by the line-up, but will blame it on Covid?
- How many sponsors and companies will cancel their Sundance attendance as they reinstate travel bans due to Omicron?
- Should we throw a party at Tao?
- If people are cancelling attendance at CES, who is going to Sundance?
- Did you hear that we cancelled our shoot early due to crew/cast fears about the variant?
- Spider Man was great for box office, theaters are back;
- Spider Man was a super-spreader;
- No one is showing up for anything other than Spider Man, so theaters are still doomed;
- We’re back in the Matrix, and both are disappointments.
No one knows anything, especially not me. But while many people are disappointed that we’re getting hit by another Covid variant because it sucks, many people who I know are disappointed because it just shows once again what a shit-show we live in when it comes to public health, inequality and seemingly everyone’s inability to care about anyone else. These also aren’t anything new, but they bring attention to glaring underlying problems with how we humans seem to do things. Covid and now the Omicron version just reveal structural problems that are the bigger issue.
This is true of the film business as well. As I’ve quoted Buffett before – It’s not until the Tide goes out that you see who’s been swimming naked. We’re seeing that now, and it ain’t pretty. At the beginning of 2021, I said that 2022 is the new 2021. I guess 2023 is the year of new hope now? Another thing I’ve said before… Batten down the hatches. For real, this time. News from South Africa is showing their surge slowing down after about a month. With our holiday travel in the US not slowing down, that means we probably have this til February. I’m no scientist, but that’s the guess from one I know, and I recommend real masks, boosters, testing and ignoring all prognostications about box office, theaters, or future events until we get on the other side of some of this.
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Film
Panels on The State of Indie Film: Film Independent recently held a series of panels for indie producers on the state of the industry, with five sessions focused on topics like cover protocols/changes, distribution, financing and more. Dear Producer has a great rundown of the panels, with highlights that are worth reading. It's a bit hard to read the tea-leaves here, because the panelists represented the "high"a bit more than the "low" of indies, but it's still worth a read. (BN)
Is an Oscar Campaign worth it for an Indie Documentary?: This one has been making the rounds, but ICYMI in Documentary Mag, Anthony Kaufman takes a look at the cost benefit analysis for the Oscar campaign for indie docs. When a campaign can start at $100K, yes that's correct, it's a tough question for many. For me - hell no! Not unless your distributor can afford it (they charge you our of your income, however). But another one that's worth the read. (BN)
MSNBC Takes CNN Rivalry to New Level With Documentary Acquisitions: Recently, MSNBC began acquiring documentary feature films and series, rivaling CNN and placing themselves in direct competition with the big distributors (Netflix, Hulu…etc). Sourced from content studios, production companies, and independent filmmakers, MSNBC is taking on projects at all phases of their life, from finished films to films still in early development. The move is MSNBC’s way to “broaden… and to diversify [their] audience base. [MSNBC is] really looking for an opportunity to get to more people who aren’t necessarily consuming MSNBC on a regular basis” (Rashida Jones, MSNBC President). Check out Addie Morfoot’s Variety piece to learn about some of the recently acquired films as well as how they're competing in a crowded landscape. (GSH)
XTR wants to Build the Best Nonfiction Studio - Deadline has this interview piece with Bryn Mooser, the ceo of "hot" doc maker XTR on what they're trying to do, and why. Particularly of note is their vertical integration, and also how they're trying to build a brand. Both are things every doc company should keep in mind. (BN)
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Branded Content
Power On: The Story of Xbox: New docuseries explores the origins of Xbox and its evolution over 20 years: Power on: The Story of Xbox is Microsoft’s new docuseries, streaming for free, and it’s a perfect example of branded content done right. The series features the masterminds behind the console, the various prototypes and stages of the Xbox, and the team’s struggle with Microsoft to allow its development. Judging by the trailer, audiences will come away from the series feeling connected to the humans behind Xbox and Microsoft and might even develop an affinity for the brands. Check out Microsoft writer Athima Chansachai’s piece for the story and series trailer. (GSH)
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Miscellany:
Genius builds computer inside minecraft that can run its own games: Despite Minecraft having been created 10 years ago, it’s still the site of innovation and creative genius. One crafter built a processor he calls Chungus 2 which can run video-games like Snake and Tetris. All you have to do is have your Minecraft avatar jump on a controller made by Minecraft blocks. Check out Victor Tangermann’s piece on The_Byte for a demo video. Whether you like it or not, we’re truly immersed in a (Jorge Luis Borges-type) universe, where the virtual can be found within the virtual which can be found within the virtual which can be found in the virtual….(GSH)
Ninja, the world’s top streamer, on how video games can make you smarter about money and investing: One of the most successful pro-gamers known as Ninja says that immersive video-games are teaching its users to be economists. "In role-playing games you learn how to trade, and even how to deal with inflation…. The sophisticated economic engines of today’s games force players to reckon with scarcity, supply-chain issues, and trade wars." Edward Castronova, economist and professor of media at Indiana University backs him up and goes so far as to say that many of these game models offer “lessons for policymakers… about what makes a fair and equitable society, and also [about] what could spark the next revolution.” Jeremy Olshan, writer for MarketWatch has the story. My takeaway: Limit screen-time for your kids because if you don’t…. they might become the next Warren Buffett.(GSH)
GSH = Articles written by Sub-Genre's Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman, not Brian Newman (BN)
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