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Another week, another newsletter where the words on this page belie the simple fact that I pretty much stared into space moaning “gah…what can I possibly write of consequence in these moments?!” for hours. But as we wait for our Congress to do something/sometime in response to the insurrection, my thoughts turn to delayed expectations, and alas, that’s apparently the theme for 2022. Or maybe it isn’t – who knows in this news cycle.
2022 is the new 2021. That’s becoming increasingly apparent as we settle into the New Year. Yes, we have vaccines coming, and in theory we can see that light at the end of the tunnel, but as I speak with festival/conference organizers, producers planning productions, friends thinking about vacations, the smart ones all seem to be hedging their bets and looking to 2022 before we really get back to normal. It sucks, but as I’ve said here before – it’s better to plan for the worst and be surprised, than hope for the best with this virus.
Did you know that even if you get the vaccine, you still have to wear a mask? And that you might still need to quarantine if you are exposed, because you may still spread the virus? I think most people hear vaccine and think the opposite of that; in fact, I bet most people assume vaccine = no masks and back to normalcy. But it doesn’t, at least not yet.
According to the WSJ, for example, “precautions like wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding crowded spaces will be necessary until the country gets closer to herd immunity, the point at which enough people are immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely. Some studies have estimated roughly 75% to 80% of the U.S. population needs to be immune to Covid-19 to reach herd immunity, but that number is a moving target and could rise as new variants emerge.” (emphasis added to remind us of movie theaters, film fests and conferences).
In the US in particular, where masks, vaccines and compliance have become crazy-politicized, I think we’ll find a situation where many smart folks – even those who have been vaccinated – will avoid crowds and tight spaces well into late 2021. In addition, companies that have to approve the travel of their employees are going to be more cautious as well, meaning travel budgets will likely remain thin in 2021. Plus, who wants to sponsor a half-attended event, so expect sponsorships and their related activations and travel to remain lower in 2021.
What does this mean for film fests, conferences, movie theaters, and productions. Well, I hate to say it now, but it means you should be planning for ongoing disruptions to your in-person events through ‘21 and it’s probably not super-safe to plan events prior to ‘22. Don’t Shoot the Messenger.
I had conversations the past two weeks with the organizers of several high-profile events/conferences/festivals (most not even in the film world), and many of the organizers have spent the past week or two cancelling plans, and rearranging things to be virtual or hybrid. I’ve also spoken with a few movie theaters who have already made the decision not to open before 2022 – they may change course if the situation improves, but they are budgeting and planning as if 2022 is more certain. Sure, Cuomo announced plans for performances in NYC asap, and before summer, but it’s been publicly reported that many of the top music festivals are worried about staying open in ’21, much less alive ‘til ’22.
Of course, we’ve learned a lot, and that means the smart folks can adapt – doing more drive-ins and outdoor screenings, for example. Film productions can go forward under new protocols (and increased budgets), but they won’t be “immune” from the need for masks, tracing and distancing. We can get through this, but even at my most pessimistic, I had hoped we would see a much greater turnaround by Spring/Summer of 21. I am now betting that many of the film fests who have announced plans for June and even September will be moving to hybrid fests at best, and will likely find that international and out-of-town guests/industry will only participate virtually. They’ll also have to adjust to lower ticket revenues and sponsorships for another year. Couple this with donor fatigue, and I worry even more that multiple beloved venues and fests will find ’21 to be their last year.
Unfortunately, I fear that these delayed expectations will also be felt within the marketplace for films. Sales agents continue to report – albeit usually off the record, that the market for arthouse cinema seems stuck. A few things move, but a lot remains frozen. This week, Netflix announced a new film dropping every week in 2021– actually even more, with 71 titles across multiple genres. That’s a lot of filled slots, meaning less acquisitions. Netflix’s Scott Stuber also told Variety that he did expect more acquisitions, but from the Studios, “not just the festival circuit.” He didn’t need to add that emphasis for the writing on the wall to be clear – an even smaller portion of the top 1% can hope to be bought out of a festival, but they are looking to snag only the biggest, most attractive fish.
Not to mention that all of these films being launched on SVOD equals a lot of competition for eyeballs, time and attention. Add that to all that has been and will be announced for Disney+, Apple TV+, etc. (not to mention politics and TikTok), and getting anyone off their couch and into theaters – even with a vaccine helping us – will be a heavy lift. Some argue we’ll all run to theaters the moment we have the vaccine, but while I still bet theaters return, I’m more sure that the vast majority of audiences will wait for the safety of herd immunity, and settle for their home screens for much longer. Let’s face it – would you risk your life for a movie you may not even like, or spend that risk-equity on a beach trip with the family?
And so we wait. For an impeachment that sticks, or a 25th, or an indictment. For another insurrection. For things we dare not mention out loud. For a vaccine. For herd immunity. For that fucker ahead of me in line to put back on his mask. For real change. For the market for our films to become unstuck. For audiences. For the flickering of that light on the big screen. For something resembling normalcy. For something to positively surprise us, perhaps before 2022. I’ll be right here waiting, and so, I suspect, will you.
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Film
What's the Situation for Film Fests in 21?: Eric Kohn at IndieWire has a great, in-depth look at what all of the major film fests - and important "2nd tier" fests - will be doing in 2021, or what they hope to be doing. As we all know, plans might change. Some folks are moving full-speed ahead with live events, mainly for those after May, but a few aren't planning more than virtual events, even later in the year. I suspect that we'll have a pretty robust fest season, but with a lot being more hybrid than organizers expect (per my article above). Good news, in some ways - FilmFreeway reported just a 4% drop in submissions globally in 2020, meaning filmmakers are finding a way to make films (and also, that we can't ever stop the flood of content).
We need a new Newton Minnow Now- A great argument that we need a new head of the FCC who can channel their inner-Minnow and re-think public media in the digital age. Just what I've been arguing for, for quite some time, and I hope the Biden administration thinks broadly for the FCC. from: How To Measure Ghosts: "We need a bold vision for how we can change this - not a mournful paean to the failed dreams of 14 years ago, but something that ties a new vision of public value in the digital age to a practical plan for the projects, institutions, networks and regulations that can make it happen. This needs to come not just from activists and campaigners, but from someone, like Minow, with the power to bring it to life."
Netflix Announces 71 Films for '21 - As mentioned above, Netflix had a huge announcement this week. And it's more than a film per week. Every week (as the ad says).
What's Next For Roku?: They had a big week, buying Quibi and announcing big numbers. What's next for Roku? They've won the streaming wars, says TV{R}EV, and is well-poised to keep competing in the space.
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Branded Content
YETI - One for the Roadies: Yeti has partnered twice now with CrewNation to raise funds for road crews impacted by the coronavirus shut-down of the music touring industry. They partnered with multiple musicians to make custom-designed coolers that were auctioned off as a fundraiser. Some musicians made fancy designs, others just filled the coolers with swag, and some did some hybrid. This is a great campaign, and while it's not technically storytelling, I put it here because it's going to lead to many people telling stories of the great coolers they got from their favorite musicians, and that's close-enough for me. But, the auction ended on Jan 12th - so this is late news, sorry.
Brands in the Age of Covid-19 at the Vimeo Fest/Awards - Ah, the Viimeo Fest & Awards - near and dear to my heart as I did a keynote there twice back in the day(s). This year, they have a great virtual line-up, and one of the panels is on brands and film, and features a couple friends of mine. Check out the line-up and register here.
Corporations Re-Consider Political Donations - the insurrection (and ongoing trauma) is forcing many companies to reconsider their political contributions, with many pressing pause. Interestingly, IBM is one of a handful of companies who stopped giving political contributions years ago, and it hasn't hindered their progress on Capitol Hill, or with misc. occupants of the White House. Andrew Ross Sorkin, in the NYT, argues that these changes should be made permanent. His argument - "Yet at this moment in history, when many companies say they want to step up to address big public challenges even ahead of government leaders, what better opportunity to create real credibility and demonstrate leadership? This time, corporate America can make a powerful statement not with money, but without it." And I'd argue - put that money into storytelling for good, to make real change at the grassroots level.
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Miscellany:
 We need a New WPA for Artists (and America) in 21: This week saw at least two big arguments for Biden to launch a new WPA program to support artists, and put jobs and great projects into the USA this year. The best argument comes from Jason Farago in the NYT, who pens a pretty long piece (likely destined for the magazine in print) about the crisis in the arts, and multiple mechanisms to help artists and arts organizations. Lots of good ideas here and worth the long read. And then over at Deadline, veteran producer Don Mischer writes an Op-Ed more specifically calling for a new WPA. Not as well-reasoned, but it's always good to have big names supporting the cause. And if you aren't aware of the WPA programs from the Great Depression, Mischer explains well: "The Works Progress Administration oversaw programs that built highways, schools, hospitals, bridges. And Roosevelt, knowing how critical arts and entertainment were to the spirit and morale of the nation, also included arts-related programs. WPA hired thousands of artists, writers, musicians, designers, painters, photographers and craftsmen who gave free concerts, painted murals inside public buildings, restored theaters, staged plays, taught kids and bore witness, with their photographs, to the plight of Americans. They made sure the arts stayed alive in the everyday life of communities, through exhibitions and classes." And Farago makes the case for why now: "a soul-sick nation is not likely to recover if it loses fundamental parts of its humanity. Without actors and dancers and musicians and artists, a society will indeed have lost something necessary — for these citizens, these workers, are the technicians of a social catharsis that cannot come soon enough."
Post-Riot, the Capitol Hill Staff Faces a Security Mess - Wired Reports - Just another thing no one apparently thought about before - when you have a ton of people running around a building you thought was secure, you might have some cyber-security issues as well. Per the story: "Rioters could have bugged congressional offices, exfiltrated data from unlocked computers, or installed malware on exposed devices. In the rush to evacuate the Capitol, some computers were left unlocked and remained accessible by the time rioters arrived. And at least some equipment was stolen;" and that's just the start of the potential issues. Fun stuff these insurrections.
Democracy Itself is a Threat to White-Supremacy - Darren Walker pens a pretty powerful piece for the Ford Foundation newsletter (he's President of the foundation, if you didn't know) about how white supremacists showed us this week that "the ideal of democracy is the greatest threat to the ideology of white supremacy; neither can long endure in the presence of the other." Read the full piece.
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