June 24, 2022
This week, everyone I spoke with on the Zooms was recovering from a case of Covid they caught at last week’s Tribeca Festival. I’m not surprised – as I mentioned last week, I was often the only person or one of 3-4 people wearing a mask at any Tribeca event I attended. “What are these people thinking?” I would ask myself. But the new response from everyone who got it was a shrug and a look of “that’s the way it is these days.”
Which is what Broadway is saying as theaters announced they are going maskless, even though none of the actors seem to like that idea. I think this shows the final triumph of business over labor. Recent unionization successes at Starbucks and some film orgs aside, there has been a profound shift. Not too long ago, the anti-smoking crowd finally succeeded in banning indoor smoking by appealing to the idea that we needed to protect the poor workers who had no choice but to serve everyone in a smoke-filled room, and second-hand smoke could kill them. Restaurant owners balked, saying they’d lose business to the smoking crowd (a minority already at that time), but worker’s health trumped these concerns. Speak with any public health person, and they’ll tell you – that was the big thing that won that battle.
But now, we toss those folks aside in the name of keeping the business owners – and the general public – happy. No one gives a second thought to the workers stuck in those environments anymore. Sure, mask-wearing is not a popular thing now, but I find it interesting that we’ve shifted to such a state that this part of the conversation is barely mentioned.
Oh well… enough of unpopular arguments. What has been popular this week is guessing when the next round of cuts would come to Netflix. We got that answer yesterday, as they cut another 300 staff, which coupled with the earlier cuts is around 5% of their staff. Now, one might think this is just a Netflix thing, as they’re doing a spectacularly bad job of responding to Wall Street’s demands and their subscriber losses, but I think what’s starting with Netflix is just the beginning of a wider trend; and even if it isn’t, they drive so much of the demand for films/shows right now that it will have an impact on all types of producers down the line.
Netflix spent the last week at Banff and other fests/markets trying to make the case that they’re still spending and doing just fine. And I believe them long term – I don’t think they’re going anywhere. But many of my friends report that they’ve had talks with folks inside about new movies and shows in the past two weeks, only to have the person they were speaking with disappear within the last week. And I bet those disappearances were not due to folks catching Covid at Tribeca, which they barely attended. Rumors in the Trades are that the original content teams, especially in the US, have seen many of the cuts (and notably, marketing and product teams were cut, which is poor long-term planning).
Oh well, someone else will keep the party rolling, right?
But then I got news from a few smart folks telling me they’ve also heard that HBO Max is cutting back completely on new unscripted shows and docs. And a few sales agents have reported much slower sales than expected for both unscripted and scripted, with more than one saying they hope things open back up by September. So do I, but of course, that’s when we might be fully in the middle of a recession, so…
One starts to wonder who cuts next, given that this is starting to look like a field-wide issue, not something that’s only happening to Netflix. Sure, we’ll see more orders of the series that work – they streamers need new “content” to keep subscribers, and soon advertisers, coming back. But struggling giants usually turn to tried and true, not new and envelope-pushing. That all adds up to a tough market ahead for anyone making quality films and series.
At the same time, I’ve had numerous conversations with folks in the brand content space – brand reps, producers who work with them and agency types – who are feeling the belt tightening. There are many rumors of a move away from brand and reputation building and towards a need to move product and/or make cuts. This happens during every recession, but sentiments seem to be that we should expect to see a slow-down in the number of brand films and other “content” being produced.
And reports are also hitting about an advertising slow-down as well. Just as everyone looks to AVOD and FAST to be the savior of the industry, and that can’t be a good thing. Sure, what advertising does take place has to go somewhere and a large chunk of it will keep going here as more people ditch their subscriptions and go for the free/ad-heavy services, but if there’s a slowdown in spending, we’ll likely see people doing more with less – relying more on library content and less on new acquisitions and commissions. And if you want to place your marketing budget against something like eyeballs and attention, who would choose anything other than TikTok right now? All of this doesn’t bode well for people making new films and series, either.
On The Plus Side
But before I get too gloomy… I’ve also seen several new client inquiries here at Sub-Genre, and we have numerous brand clients who are in the middle of making new films and series. My film producer friends all seem to be busy on new projects, and just try and find an editor for any film right now – they’re all too busy to barely think about new work. Over in festival land, while there have been some shake-ups, that also means that a few of the best festivals in the land are in the middle of hiring. Which will have a trickle-down effect as others replace the folks who move from one place to another.
And there’s a theory that we needed a shake-up among the bigger streamers anyways. Perhaps this will give more breathing room for other distributors to move in and pick up the films the big guns aren’t buying or making anymore. Perhaps this will open new opportunities. Creative destruction is what everyone preaches about capitalism, right? We do need some creative new thinking about how to release films, and if the streamers are going to retrench and focus on the masses and specific deep niches that attract advertisers, this will give an opportunity to many innovative distributors (if they can just make some final “window” streaming deal, which is often the bulk of their revenues).
I also think that smart brands – and producers – will start thinking beyond the big upfront payments and promises of audiences on the streamers, and realize that once you get there, you can be lost in the noise. There’s value to making and releasing quality entertainment (and impact projects, too) outside of a crowded system. Perhaps if more of us get together to brainstorm – perhaps while sipping margaritas near a beach the rest of this Hot Summer- we can create some new futures.
So while the start of this post may feel all gloomy, I am looking on the horizon and seeing a lot of opportunity ahead. It's hidden behind the headlines (which we’ll keep seeing) on the doom and gloom side of things. Try to keep that in mind if you are one of the few of us who reads the news.
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Film
Film Festival Alliance Salary Survey: The Film Fest Alliance has published the results of its salary survey. The Hollywood Reporter has an article about it, and if you head over to the Alliance site, you can access the report, a summary and a more detailed thought piece about it from Alliance ED Barbara Twist, which I recommend. The takeaway- salaries are all over the place, as are policies, FT vs PT, etc. but are generally not great. But this survey is a great step in the direction of improving things across the board, and shows that the field is starting to think about making the fest world a better place to work for everyone, and it dispels some myths - fests don't make their income on the backs of submission fees, for just one example. Read the report and learn more. (BN)
Naomi Osaka Starts a Film Company: Naomi Osaka has announced her new company, Hana Kuma, "which stands for “flower bear” in Japanese, include scripted and unscripted television series, documentaries, anime and branded content," as the NYT reports. There are many interesting things here - she's doing this in partnership/with funding from SpringHill, the media company founded by LeBron James and Maverick Carter. And one of her first announced projects is the short doc "MINK! (which) tells the story of Patsy Takemoto Mink, a Hawaii Democrat who became the first woman of color elected to the U.S. House of Representatives, where she co-authored the groundbreaking Title IX legislation that prohibited discrimination on the basis of sex in schools that received federal funding" according to Deadline. That film will be a NYT Op-Doc, and it is directed by Ben Proudfoot, who won the Oscar this year, and was nominated the year before for his short docs (and he's a friend). I also love that the NYT felt they needed to define branded content, and that Carter said that Hana Kuma and SpringHill are differentiated from other studios by making such content... ok, whatever. It's also interesting to see the ongoing celebritization of the sector. More thoughts on all of this soon. (BN)
The Legacy of Gen-X Black Filmmakers: In a sort of ode to his generation, Brandon David Wilson writes about the rich and complicated relationship between Gen-X Black Americans and film. A generation of people born between the mid ‘60s and late ‘70s, “Generation X… was famously summed up as the children of Watergate, Vietnam, the aftermath of the Civil Rights/Black Liberation Movements, the dawn of the Gay Rights Movement, Second Wave Feminism, and divorce…. Cinematically, Gen-X means the Children of the Blockbuster.” Wilson highlights three movements in cinema that had a profound effect on his generation – New Black Cinema, New Queer Cinema, and the American Independent Movement. These “led to a fairly reliable set of filmmaking traits: an interest in pastiche, a complicated relationship to Hollywood formula, and a friction between cynicism as a default and trying to reclaim idealism from the previous generation.” At the end of his piece Wilson highlights some of the most important Gen-X films, “forged by many social forces and the reverberations of historic shifts.” Head on over to his piece at RogerEbert to get the shortlist. (GSH)
 Free Streaming Services Attract More Viewers—and Advertisers: Free Ad-supported video on demand streaming services (AVOD) are booming. Just this year, these strange-named services — Tubi, Pluto TV, Freevee, Xumo…etc — are expected to generate $19 billion in revenue, more than doubling 2020 figures. Why? Because people are tired of paying for cable TV or subscribing to (often 3-5) streaming services. “The tailwind is behind AVOD,” says Tubi Chief Executive Farhad Massoudi, and now we’re seeing a handful of AVOD platforms invest in original content. It’s also the programming advertisers like to be associated with, according to CEO Bill Rouhana of Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. Free AVOD platforms may also become a hub for the indie filmmaker who have a harder and harder time getting their film to big SVOD services like Netflix. Lillian Rizzo for the Wall Street Journal brings us the news. (GSH)
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Branded Content
WePresent commissions ‘Overheated’ documentary as part of Billie Eilish-fronted climate festival at O2 in London: WePresent, the digital arts platform of WeTransfer recently premiered “Overheated” a 40 minute documentary film directed by Yassa Khan that explores climate anxiety spreading across the world and the determination of some of today’s most important climate activists. Central to the film are indigenous voices who tend to be those most acutely impacted by the climate crisis. Featuring Billie Eilish, the film is screening at the 02 Cineworld for 6 nights, alongside Billie Eilish’s World Tour. WeTransfer is on fire - they just won the Oscar for Best Short with The Long Goodbye - and this one takes them in an interesting artistic direction, too. Click the link to find out more! (GSH)
Issa Rae Challenges Ad Industry to Follow Her Plan for Diverse Sets: Issa Rae spoke at Cannes Lions and told advertisers to step up and follow her lead, where she mandates that her sets are at least 60% diverse. Simple equation, big change. She elaborated: "“Have these conversations so that they can educate themselves and spread the word. We task diverse people to spread the word about diversity, when we know what it is already...My challenge is: hold people to task. Make sure these conversations are being had across the board.” Deadline reports. (BN)
Newzoo: Gamers like brands more than non-gamers do: Newzoo’s latest survey of over 75,000 respondents from 36 markets around the world finds that gamers may have more favorable attitudes towards brands that run gaming activations than non-gamers [a gaming activation might look like an in-game character wearing a pair of Nike’s]. Gamers were more likely to hold “very positive” or “positive” attitudes towards these brands than their non-gamer counterparts, though the difference in attitude fluctuated dramatically from brand to brand. Check out Brendan Sinclair’s summary for the numbers. The takeaway: Brands are getting better at and more creative with product placement especially in mediums like gaming (and the metaverse soon?) where players can curate their ‘look’ and define their virtual identity. (GSH)
Meta Recreates Cannes in The Metaverse As It Tries To Attract Advertisers: Metaversal Realestate is booming and brands are getting more creative. Meta is leading the charge with Cloud Island, a digital replica of Cannes, where avatars can play volleyball or promenade along the Cannes shore. They’re using the island to showcase the practical applications of the metaverse to advertisers, brands, and agencies. And just last week, Meta announced partnerships with Fender (guitar brand) and Mini (car company). Players in the Fender World, obviously shaped like a guitar, can scavenge for guitar picks to make music. Meanwhile, Mini developed the MINIverse, where avatars can go go-karting and customize vehicles. My takeaway: Right now, the metaverse is being built by a hodge-podge of brands that don’t really know what they’re doing. But what’s important is that they’re experimenting. My feeling is that brands that get in early, learn what resonates with users and what doesn’t are way ahead of the game. Garett Sloane for Adage has the news. (GSH)
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Miscellany:
 The World’s Smartest Artificial Intelligence Just Made Its First Magazine Cover: Artificial Intelligence is making waves in the art and design world. Most recently, an AI technology called DALL-E 2 that takes verbal requests to generate art created the magazine cover for Cosmopolitan. Powered by a neural network that mimics the way our brains work, DALL-E 2 riffles through hundreds of millions of images in a matter of seconds to create something entirely new. What’s special about this tech is it’s ability to interpret commands, and therefore create something novel. For instance, “type “Darth Vader on a Cosmopolitan magazine cover” and DALL-E doesn’t just cut and paste a photo of Darth; it dresses him in a gown and gives him hot-pink lipstick” (check out the article for images). With serious advancements in AI, big changes are on the horizon, and not all of it will be easy to grapple with. The digital artist who worked with DALL-E 2 on the Cosmopolitan AI issue explains “[w]ith AI, we are about to enter a period of massive change in all fields, not just art. Many people will lose their jobs. At the same time, there will be an explosion of creativity and possibility and new jobs being created—many that we can’t even imagine right now.” Cosmopolitan’s Gloria Liu writes an amazing article about this revolution in art and design so give her full piece a read if you’re interested in learning more. Also, check out this entertaining YouTube video called “Can AI Replace Our Graphic Designer” to see what DALL-E is capable of producing in real time. (GSH)
While the U.S. Celebrates the End of Slavery on Juneteenth, Incarcerated Artists Depict the Harsh Reality That Forced Labor Persists in Prison: Juneteenth is NOT a commemoration of the Emancipation Proclamation issued Jan 1, 1863. It’s the date that federal troops actually enforced the law, 2.5 years later on June 19, 1865 in Galveston Texas. “The holiday is therefore a fitting reminder of our country’s contradictions”, writes Nicole Fleetwood in Artnet, an academic, art curator and author. We are reminded of these contradictions when we look at our 13th amendment, which includes an exception that allows for slavery as punishment for a crime.
How can Art teach or remind us of the slavery — one that disproportionately affects Black men — that persists in the U.S. today? Fleetwood has “spent decades exploring the visual culture of prisons and mass incarceration through the work of currently and formerly incarcerated artists. To the researcher, archivist, or casual observer, the extent to which slavery permeates prison art is striking. Prison art debunks the myth that slavery was abolished and makes the reality abundantly clear: slavery persists in the U.S. through the forced captivity and labor of incarcerated people.” Take a moment to check out her Op Ed, where she brings us some of this art. (GSH)
TikTok exec: We’re not a social network like Facebook, we’re an entertainment platform: If you’ve been present on Facebook (or Instagram, owned by Facebook), it’s pretty obvious how much it’s trying to look and feel like TikTok. But there’s a core difference between Facebook and TikTok: Facebook’s expertise is in creating/connecting social networks, while TikTok’s is in creating and elevating cultural trends. And both are really good at what they do.
Give Alex Sherman’ CNBC piece a read for the details, but for now, the takeaway is that Facebook, which calls itself a TikTok competitor, can’t catch up to the app that has won Gen Z-ers over. Blake Chandlee, TikTok’s head of global business solutions and a former 12-year Facebook employee explains that Facebook isn’t real competition “unless Facebook entirely walks away from its social values, which I just don’t think it will do.” My takeaway: Even if Facebook is able to replicate the TikTok experience, users, especially young users who detect bullshit from miles away hate app homogenization (where all the platforms start to look and feel alike). (GSH)
GSH = Articles written by Sub-Genre's Gabriel Schillinger-Hyman, not Brian Newman (BN)
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