We are living in an era of superabundance, where my attention is more valuable than my money, and while this is great for audiences, it’s a disaster for arthouse and indie films seeking any revenue. There’s a small silver-lining for niche and social impact documentaries that want eyeballs more than dollars, but overall, the sector is imploding and no one is talking about it publicly, though its dominating the “off the record” conversations I’ve been having.
 At the start of Covid-19, nearly every distributor and film festival moved to a virtual model. Distributors developed virtual cinema programs, pairing with theaters in an effort to make some money, keep a relationship with audiences and maybe save theatrical. At first, things looked pretty good – KinoLorber was reporting numbers that weren’t very dissimilar from their 2019 theatrical numbers, and they touted them in IndieWire and elsewhere. But you’re not seeing those stories in the press anymore, and I suspect that it’s because they’ve dropped down into the abyss, as many are reporting to me behind the scenes (I have not asked KinoLorber and don’t know how they’re doing, but know it’s not being reported anymore).
One distributor told me that their virtual box office dropped from 5-6 figures per title down to under $10,000 for a month-long run. Theaters have reported to me that they’ve played ten or more titles from some distributors over the past few months, and not only have they seen revenue decline to the few hundred dollars per title, but that they’ve not received reports or payments from many well-known arthouse distributors at all – but their patrons are getting inundated with spam emails for more titles. Theaters at first saw this as a way to stay relevant to patrons, but are increasingly getting desperate. A few have been able to open drive-ins, but these seem to be working mainly for repertory fare and bigger genre titles, mainly horror – but they’ll take the revenue.
Meanwhile, over in film festival land, it seems pretty rosy on the surface. Many festivals are pretty happy with their virtual festivals, and report that they’ll continue some form of virtual programming into the future. But if you start to look into the virtual numbers (drive-ins seem to be doing great), there are some scary trends. While this doesn’t apply to every festival, many are reporting brisk pass and ticket block sales, and “reservations” or virtual ticketing using those passes. But someone who buys a block of ten tickets might only use four of them. 300 people might register for a panel, but only 15 show up. 300 people might claim tickets to a film, but only 100 might watch it, and the average watch time can be as little as 15 minutes (very few fests are giving these reports to filmmakers, either). What seems to be going on, with some exceptions I’m sure, is that people want to support the festival and keep it alive, but they see it as a donation, and few are watching the films. When they do, they are sampling them, and often leaving if they get bored – which is fine, but it’s also behavior that probably wouldn’t happen in a theater, where you’ve invested your time as well as your money.
Now this is mainly anecdotal and probably not statistically accurate information, because it’s biased by who I speak with and who will share what numbers off the record. It’s also hard to piece together an accurate picture because there is no transparency in this business and there never has been. We need this data more than ever – not to shame anyone, but to make a better argument for interventions to save the sector (even if that’s a distant hope in the US). I want these different players - fests, distributors, theaters, filmmakers - to survive, and bet most of my readers do as well. But we need the data to build solutions (more on that below). And even in a time of budget cuts and strained staffs, there is no excuse for film festivals not sharing their virtual film data with filmmakers, and very few festivals are sending any kind of reports, even though all of the systems being used would allow it, and make it easier than IRL screenings.
There are many reasons for this hidden, unfolding disaster, but the primary one is superabundance. The average US household has access to over 100,000 hours of content via any one of their average of 3.8 different SVOD services. That doesn’t even take into account the additional hours available via transactional or free/AVOD services, or things like YouTube and Vimeo. But seeing the forest for the trees – even if one is inclined to narrow their focus to arthouse and indie films, we’re way past capacity. Many exhibitors have been showing as many as 30 films in their virtual cinemas, hoping the pennies per title add up to dollars. A cinephile can barely keep up with the numerous platforms available from the different distributors. Reading the NYT Movie Reviews now is almost pointless, as you not only have to discover and remember the film title, but whether it’s on KinoMarquee, or Magnolia Selects, or Projectr, or one of the dozen or more other arthouse VOD platforms.
I, for one, just give up, as I’m sure many other cinephiles do. And by the time those films make it to my favored services (like Netflix or Apple), I will have forgotten their existence, and the algorithm won’t surface them to me. Every effort to catalogue this mess (JustWatch, etc.) is a failure, and even the best of them (Letterboxd), have horrible user experiences that only the most dedicated cinephiles will tolerate. Consumers are so frustrated trying to find something to watch that as many as 56% of those polled would prefer a feature that just randomly assigns them a movie/show to watch.
But set aside movies. TikTok has hundreds of millions of US users, and over 2 Billion downloads globally. The average user spends 52 minutes on it every day. If you’ve spent any time on it lately, you also know it’s not just addictive fun. It’s now a great source for political video, news, science education, movie and music reviews and discovery, and pretty much anything else you want to peruse. Even Netflix now officially refers to TikTok as major competition in its earnings reports. The average US adult spends another 38 minutes on Facebook, and 16-24 year old’s spend 3 hours a day. Life under covid has only been increasing these numbers, with huge gains in subscribers and amount of time spent on all forms of social media, new chat apps like Houseparty, and of course, gaming. Game usage is up 75%, and possibly more than that, as many companies aren’t reporting figures.
 Add to this abundance of content choices, the multiple new types of content we barely had before. Theaters and dance companies moving online. Jazz musicians hosting virtual concerts. Curators offering Zoom cocktails and talks about paintings. Galleries and auction houses moving online. DJs and musicians making new forms of online concerts. RZA (and probably others) doing live-chats over old martial arts films. These are just the art-forms I pay attention to, but I’m sure any one of my readers can point to thousands of other things they’re watching – other than movies – that they never watched before. Breaking through this new covid-induced noise is harder than ever before. Even Comic-Con couldn’t do it.
You can look at this as an embarrassment of riches or a cacophony of strident yelling from artists seeking attention. Either way, the audience is stuck in the middle of this, and is weighing numerous free options vying for their attention versus a hodge-podge of pricing choices for movies and, it seems, they’re opting out altogether and choosing free or seemingly free (SVOD). That’s why word is getting out that distributors are seeing revenue declines and not buying films, and sales agents can’t make deals.
As I said above, there is a small silver-lining. My friends who are holding free screenings of social impact documentaries, or niche content with a defined audience (such as Five Seasons, the movie about the gardens of Piet Oudolf) are seeing huge numbers – over 1 million views for a gardening doc! Other friends are reporting not just huge view counts, but also increases in their mailing lists, followers and donations and/or petition signings for social issue/cause films. But again, only when offered for free, usually subsidized by donors and/or foundations.
But we can’t sustain a business with a diversity of voices and options on donations. Foundations might support that BIPOC social issue doc, but few will support that BIPOC romantic comedy. Much less the myriad other films the average cinephile would like to watch. And even if they’re funded, they can be impossible to discover, remember and watch. That’s why I’ve been calling for more investment in discovery and distribution, and more collaboration and transparency. The going it solo route – or indie route, so to speak – is not working. I think there’s a reason the doc sector is doing better (on free) – because they’ve built a robust ecosystem of collaboration and support over decades. It’s also why we’re seeing a markedly better situation in other countries. It’s not only because they’ve done a better job at flattening the curve on Covid. And yes, if they don’t get Blockbuster product soon, many foreign arthouses will start to die, as well. But in places like Europe, you also see more collaboration, with think tanks and knowledge sharing, and of course, centralized Government support (called for, and often shaped by the field) for the sector. Working together, works. We need to try some of that here in the US, and maybe if we get our shit together, we can collaborate with the rest of the world to build even better systems for the good of all of us.
Unfortunately, I have two big fears – one, that this sector just isn’t capable of collaborating to effect change fast enough to make a difference. But second, and more importantly, that the need to fix arthouse films will soon be overtaken by the urgent need to save our democracy from the threat of fascism. But that’s a darker post. I’ll touch on that below, but for now, let’s just try to save film.
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One way to solve the problems I mentioned above is by collecting data and using it to build better systems. To that end: With COVID having such a major impact on the independent film landscape, from film festivals to theaters to online streaming platforms, we felt there was a need to survey the players, collect feedback, do a thorough analysis and create a White Paper Report to distribute far and wide. We hope this report covers the bases, answers many of the questions, shares insights into the current festivals being reimagined and helps the industry adapt.
I've partnered with The Film Festival Alliance and iGEMStv to create a set of three surveys - one for filmmakers, one for festivals and one for distributors (We may make other surveys for different sectors next).
Please help us by completing this brief film festival survey
or this brief filmmaker survey
or this brief distributor survey
Each survey should take just 5 minutes, and we request that you take them by Friday, August 7th, and you'll receive a copy of the report as soon as it is complete.
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Film
Theaters Continue to Struggle to Open - MassLive reports on the struggles and strategies of theaters trying to open in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, in Europe, theaters are open but struggling due to a lack of Hollywood (and even lo cal) big productions to screen. Movie-crazed France is particularly hard-hit according to France24. But one theater has installed distanced seats that resemble the Galactic Senate from Star Wars - brilliant (MovieWeb)!
Upcoming Netflix Documentary 'Immigration Nation' Reportedly Almost Blocked by ICE - it was probably a ploy to delay the release until after the 2020 election, but a great lawyer saved the day and the film comes out soon. Forbes covers.
The Early Winners and Losers of the Streaming Wars - and it appears that Disney is pulling ahead of the competition. Bloomberg covers. No surprise here.
However, it looks like Apple has their own winner in Tom Hanks directed, Greyhound
as Apple eyes new streaming strategy as Tom Hanks drama breaks records.
But all the while, some of the best new content can be found for free on youtube, the New Yorker covers the tragedy and comedy steaming on YouTube.
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Branded Content
How does Schwab approach Content? On Wednesday, I moderated this talk for BrandStorytelling - Charles Schwab's Kirstin Falk (Managing Director, Brand Activation) and Breakwater Studios' Ben Proudfoot (Director & CEO) have produced a watershed of award-winning short documentaries together for over five years. Starting in 2015, Kirstin and Ben have successfully formed that unique relationship — the brand to filmmaker bond that produces results. Kirstin and Ben discuss the key elements that make their partnership tick, and take a deep dive into the award-winning May Day documentary and surrounding campaign starring the company's founder — unprecedented in the company's history. The conversation was recorded and will be up on their YouTube channel sometime today. You can also read Ben's interview about GenZ and how they want stories, not ads, here.
4 Types of Content your Brand Should Post on TikTok - While this piece itself is sponsored content, it has some good advice for brands wanting to wade into TikTok. Do it smartly, so we don't ruin this platform like we have every other one, advertisers.
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Miscellany:
Facing Facsism and Collapse - A few well-argued posts on how America is facing both facism and the "mother of all social collapses." First, Umair Haque, writes of both of these on Medium, saying "When I say “The Mother of All Social Collapses,” I mean it. Trump’s America is a society that combines all the strands of social collapse that we know of — and then some. Yes, really." Then over at Continuations, Albert Wenger, writes of the threat of a Trump dictatorship. These aren't crazy people, mind you - Albert is a partner at USV, one of the preeminent VC funds - and they are sounding the alarm bells. I've been saying much the same thing to my friends - since before 2016 started to prove the theory - and have been wanting to write something, but their posts pretty much sum up where we stand and what needs to be done in the next 100 days. And if you truly want to be scared, read Bruce Gilden's Vanity Fair piece, which ends like this:
"But there’s good news, says Dave. God has given us a chance to redeem ourselves: “We could use this as an opportunity to purge. To get rid of the dross and hold on to the pure.”
A purge. A promise. “Take it as a whole,” Dave repeats, advising me to watch the briefings for every detail—the way those on the stage next to Trump tap their legs, perhaps a spiritual Morse code, the way they blink. Open your eyes. The awakening will be great, the greatest, and the rallies will return....
Only the truly initiated—Dave, Diane, QAnon—know the name of “The Storm” that’s coming, but nearly all of Trump’s devotees can read the signs, red flares over blue seas: A CNN crew arrested on camera, live, in Minneapolis; in New York, a viral video of a riot cop flashing the O.K. symbol; and in Washington, following a gas processional, the president of the United States marching through the sterile aftermath to hold aloft a Bible, upside down—a sign? A signal?—its red ribbon dangling along his wrist like a snake’s tongue."
Towards a Pluralist America - Maybe one big part of the solution to these problems is to work towards a pluralist America. What does that mean? Read Bridgit Antoinette Evans, of the Pop Culture Collaborative's "Why I Wish I’d Never Watched “The Handmaid’s Tale” - A call for the pop culture stories America needs right now.
CBS's over-zealous copyright bots hit Star Trek virtual Comic Con Panel - Maybe the AIs are too good at their jobs? Talk about a way to ruin a conference while showing how your anti-piracy efforts are super lame.
If you’re not terrified about Facebook, you haven’t been paying attention - Carole Cadwalladr, writing in The Guardian, lays out a succinct analysis of all the ways Facebook is ruining the world, and especially America.
TikTok CEO Blasts Zuck and argues for fair competition and transparency - Read Kevin Mayer's Blog post here.
Why are millennials and Gen Z turning to Instagram as a news source - Guardian covers “Social media offers, on the one hand, a medium for filling what feels like a vacuum of trustworthy information sources,” Gibson explains. “But on the other hand, our social media environments are still so segmented that some people really do live in different information worlds. In one information ecosystem, people might read this moment [and current social justice movements] as a hopeful international awakening related to anti-racism, others read it as a time of deep existential threat. We see these different worlds clashing when people meet in real life.”
Amazon reportedly invested in startups and gained propriety before launching competitors often crushing the smaller companies in the process - Be careful about who you pitch!. Business Insider covers.
 At Sea: I've been admiring the work of David Zwirner - the big, NYC art gallery/ist, which has been mounting great online exhibits lately. Most have been single artist, but he has up a new group show called At Sea that is an amazing mix of great art work from such artists as Diane Arbus all the way to Not Vital. It's a great escape from quarantine, online. The piece above is Raymon Pettibon No Title (Big gun pen, 2020)
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