We’re just barely into this coronavirus situation and I think we can all agree it’s gonna get worse before it gets better. While the world needs optimists, it also needs realists, and I’m in the latter camp, feeling pretty sure this is going to last much longer than a few months. But whether this lasts 3 months or 18+, the impact on our world is already huge and the film world needs to think big about how to respond. Here’s just a few thoughts that have crossed my mind this week in regards to how we should respond, in no particular order, and definitely not trying to cover every facet here:
We need to experiment with new distribution models (and need grants for them) – Nearly every call I’ve had with clients (indies and brands) this week has been about how they might distribute their films in a world without film festivals, without theaters, and no clear sign of when the situation might get back to normal. But everyone seems paralyzed with fear of the unknown. Everyone talks about using the power of the web and social media to reach and engage audiences, but no one is willing to try new models to go direct to the audience online because so much (investment, pride, etc.) is on the line. But people need to stop hoping the old system comes back soon and start building new models now. If you are a brand – guess what, you don’t need festivals or the system – you can build a new model and market it yourself. If you are an indie – by the time things get back to normal, your film may be old news, and it may be too late to recover. Start experimenting now. That said, if you are a funder or nonprofit supporter - We need substantial grants - $150K and up to producers and/or indie distributors willing to experiment with some new models, asap.
Funders need to give living support for filmmakers, especially producers – Almost every grant that exists is for specific projects and/or for directors. I’m not saying to get rid of those (although I’ve argued for that before), but right now we need to help filmmakers pay the rent and survive. We need unrestricted living grants. Sure, philanthropists can require some deliverable at the end, but it shouldn’t be tied to the completion of a film. And these grants need to be extended to those always overlooked – producers. Without producers, directors can’t make their films. And producers scrape together a living now as-is, but that’s even harder when nothing is getting made. So we need money for both. And yes, of course, we need to prioritize historically marginalized groups in this giving as well.
Help others, but don’t expect any help – Yes, we need to be altruistic and help others during this crisis. But we also need to realize – as indie filmmakers – that no one is coming to our rescue, and it’s time we take our survival into our own hands. Too many filmmakers who have films in development, and/or films that just had a premiere cancelled, tend to wait for the “system” to work out for their film. They wait for festival acceptances to launch their films, and then hope a sales agent will sell it to the highest bidder. But not only has this not been working for quite some time – the system is now broken. Completely. Even people who think they are gonna put it back together in a few months are going to learn soon that most of it is gone. It’s time to take hold of your destiny and make a plan for your film that doesn’t require other people coming to your rescue.
What does this look like? Well, I’m not 100% sure, and that’s why it’s called getting creative. We need to invent new systems. I am pretty sure it doesn’t involve waiting on festivals to re-arrange their schedules, or for sales agents to call you back. It definitely involves building your audience directly. It might still involve traditional distributors, but even then, it will require you to be a lot more participatory with them and your audiences. And it means moving fast, and not waiting to figure things out later when things settle down. As Richard Brody mentions in the New Yorker this week – producers who survived 1918 did so because they moved fast (see below and here).
Roll ‘em Up – I’ve been saying for a long time that we need a great big roll-up in the indie space, and I believe it now more than ever. There are going to be a lot of bankruptcies and out-and-out failures in the indie space – theaters/chains; distributors; production companies; agencies; festivals and nonprofit support organizations; start-ups and I’m betting more than one major SVOD player and/or Studio. It’s time for someone who either has money, or can raise it, to roll-up some of these players into some more sustainable businesses.
Don't forget about AVOD - these platforms will soar – The quarantined world is moving to streaming faster by the day. Viewers are also getting poorer, meaning the shift we’ve been seeing to ad-supported streaming networks will accelerate. It’s a great time to own an AVOD platform, and a great time for content rights-holders to move faster into this space.
Don't move too fast - because audiences will want less content in the short term than is being assumed – Everyone keeps talking about how people are stuck at home just itching for stuff to watch. Platforms and publications are curating lists for them to watch, and everyone thinks it will be a boom time for viewing. But here’s the thing- check your own gut. Are you dying for things to watch? Or are you frantically checking news, social media and reports to find out what’s going on with the virus? And to find out who among your friends and acquaintances is ok? I think it’s the latter. While we will get stir crazy eventually, I think most adults are going to have plenty to do without increasing their film/show viewership in the near term (kids will need something to do, as the crisis isn’t as real to them). Gaming has increased, but it’s much more participatory and distracting than a film/show. It helps OCD better, which is what we all have right now. Jumping into the content soup too quickly is not a smart strategy. Timing this will be hard – fast, but not too fast is the best bet. Let people catch their breath first.
There’s gonna be a crisis in branded content – but also great opportunity - There’s going to be a big pull-back in investments in the branded content space. It’s inevitable as we go into an economic crisis, and no one can fault any brand that focuses on staying alive as a business versus investing in content. Budgets will be cut, and even when they aren’t – productions are near impossible to pull off. I expect we’ll see a giant shake out in this space, and it won’t be pretty.
But the reasons that smart brands have been moving into this space remain sound, and I would argue are only getting more valid. Consumers will keep cutting the cord and will move even more rapidly to streaming. Breaking through the noise with ads no one wants is getting even harder. Consumers will value brands they can trust even more. All of this helps branded content. If you can stick it out and convince your colleagues to stay with their plans, you’ll also find a much less crowded space – because let’s face it, few will remain. And while quality producers/directors and talent were becoming more open to working with brands before, they’ll be even more ready now – they need the support. Platforms will also need the content you do manage to get produced, and without traditional ways to market (like theaters), they’ll value your loyal customers and marketing savvy even more. Brands in film, or moving into this space – develop nerves of steel, as you’ll need them. If you can stomach it, double down.
Is there a silver lining for finished films? Maybe. Here’s the theory – production has ground to a halt, across all media. Yet the networks, the SVODs, the distributors need product to bring to audiences if they want to stay open. They can’t buy crap just to fill space – oh wait, they can and it’s called reality tv, but that can’t get made either – so there’s going to be more appetite for quality finished product. And there’s a lot of stuff in the can that was about to premiere at festivals. Let’s hope this helps them all find a home. But this will only work if people aren’t precious and don’t wait on releasing their films for too long – because (Again as Brody also says), a lot of creativity is gonna come out of these folks stuck in their homes, and it will take all of the attention away from everything/one else that waits for things to return to normal.
These are by no means comprehensive thoughts on what we should do in response to this crisis, but just a few I had this week. Love to hear other ideas from anyone who cares to share them with me - I'm easy to find.
Stay safe out there – in your homes.
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Film
Studios start Streaming; closing windows - Well, that didn't take long. As I predicted back on Feb 28th, the studios are already closing windows and putting many films up on streaming fast, or from the start. Universal was first among the big guns. More will follow. The NYT was among many to have the story. Vulture had a good rundown too. FastCo said, go faster.
Will CoronaVirus and Streaming be the Death of Theaters? - Some, like The Atlantic, predict this will mean the end of theaters. IndieWire thinks it just gives the studios more leverage (yes). But it won't - debt might do them in, but people will flock back when they can get out again. That said, windows won't go back to 90 days for most films, only those that are major popcorn flicks or that need sustained word of mouth.
Maybe the Film Industry is well positioned to bounce back -that's what Jim Amos of Forbes thinks - saying that IF (big if) the panic lessens by the end of Summer, we'll have a ton of product ready for screens, and a population ready to get out of the house already. It's that IF that scares me.
Lessons for the Industry from the 1918 Pandemic - Richard Brody at the New Yorker has what may be the best take on how to think about the impact of coronavirus yet - looking at “History of the American Film Industry,” by Benjamin P. Hampton (1931) he finds that the entire industry changed as a result of the flu, and the war, and only fast moving folks survived. Hampton notes (quoted by Brody): "The producers who hesitated lost ground in the struggle that was shaping its lines for the final test of industrial survival, and those who disregarded common business prudence and rushed ahead on a showman’s hunch saved their skins.” Lots of great thoughts here.
Nielsen released a report on the increase in viewing due to past crises in the US and the coronavirus in South Korea and Italy - and guess what? It goes up. The study shows close to 50% increases in viewing during past crises such as Hurricane Harvey, and around 17% in South Korea recently and 6.5% in Italy. Me: To be expected, but as the rec/depr-ession hits soon, we will likely see the viewership switch to the SVODs specifically, and more cord cutting from cable as people cut back on what bills they pay.
What's a Doc Filmmaker to Do when fests get cancelled? The D-Word has the debate going on now. If you aren't a member of D-Word, you must join, but it's free and worth joining for many reasons. Right now, they are debating, discussing and solution-izing around how to handle covid-19, on the thread - How do we adapt? They might just figure it out.
Filmmakers Try to Figure out what to do when every Festival Cancels - NoFilmSchool talks with several filmmakers - including the director of a film I produced (Cas Nozkowski of The Outside Story), and two who are clients (David Alvarado and Jason Sussberg of We are As Gods) to figure out what people do next.
Need an update on Fest reschedule dates/cancellations, online versions? - The FilmFestival Database has you covered. In his new newsletter, Mike Forstein explains how he has updated his database with new dates, cancellations, etc. I have a feeling this is going to go more haywire than anyone thinks, but it's a good resource (still) for now. (That's a still from his newsletter/database at the top of mine above). And if you need another list - this one from the FreeTheWork folks has a list of all of the rescheduled fests, as well as which ones are still taking place online.
What are all these theater employees gonna do to make ends meet? Well, some folks started a fundraiser to at least try to get every movie theater worker in NYC a check for $600 bucks. That's a start. Contribute to the Cinema Worker Solidarity Fund here. H/t to Dear Producer which is a great newsletter which led me to this link, and that same link has other resources for artists in need during this crisis.
MoviesAnywhere's new ScreenPass let's users share films with friends - from your "digital locker." Up to three users for 72 hrs. Via the Verge. Reminder - if you pay for it, you should own it and be able to do whatever the f-k you want to do with it. This "sounds great" idea is more copyright-overreach-rubbish.
Why are users flocking to Contagion films now? (and why curation might not be a great idea right now - The Guardian's Charles Bramesco reports on how viewers are doing some exposure therapy. But more importantly for everyone curating lists of what to watch at home, he has a great point: "But I’d contend that there’s a faint futility to analyzing apocalypse viewing of any sort, because when something occupies as much mental real estate as the widespread panic of Covid-19, everything becomes apocalypse viewing. If it’s impossible not to spend every waking hour obsessing over the precarious state of the public’s health, it’s likewise impossible not to project those anxieties on to anything one might choose to watch." and ends with this, which I agree with completely: " It’s starting to seem like the only real therapy is the detached, unplugged, attention-commanding simplicity of chopping vegetables."
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Branded Content
Trust is the Only Metric that Matters - Digiday has an interview with Attention Capital's Joe Marchese (pre-corona) where he brings up the importance of smart curation in a world that increasingly needs trust - "In this world where trust is eroding, the curator brands kind of become king. And I think the great example of this is Wirecutter." More brands should keep this in mind.
That's the only branded content link this week because, well, there isn't much happening in the space. Brands are figuring out how to respond to this crisis. Content should be part of that, but it understandably isn't when people are tying to figure out how to care for their employees and their customers. More in this space soon.
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MISC
Reporters without Borders is putting censored journalism in the library of Minecraft - File under brilliant. FastCo reports on a project to help people in countries anywhere, even with censorship, to get access to censored journalism. A shot from their article:
TikTok is censoring ugly and poor folks - The Intercept reports on more vile social media behavior.
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