I never thought I’d be watching a 16-minute video on what to do if a US presidential candidate refuses to concede an election, or that I’d download a 55-page guide to defending democracy after a contested election. But here we are, and the astonishing part is that it took us less than four years to get to this point.
Everyone I know is pushing to get out the vote – and yes, you should do that, but this year, I think it’s even more important to plan ahead and that means planning to do more than just vote. Yes, I’m a pessimist, but as they say – don’t bring a knife to a gunfight – and crazily enough, that’s what people are prepping for now, with one Long Island based friend telling me you can’t buy buckshot or .38 ammo anywhere on the Isle. And even if it’s not a gunfight, the Right’s gonna be much more prepared for this battle than the Left. Hell, the Supreme Court started choosing sides already. And while everyone has finally woken up to what Trump might do – years after Sarah Kendzior, who has been telling us to expect this since 2016 – he’s not the only danger. I was telling someone last night that I’m still worrying that Putin could finally interfere “bigly” while we worry about the Electoral College. Contemplate power outages in Florida on Election Day for a second. But this is a media newsletter and I’m no expert (even if I called it for Trump before any of my film friends back in 2016), so go watch that Van Jones video, read the guide and get ready for some crazy times.
Speaking of preparing for crazy times ahead… (leave now if you want to stay optimistic about film)…
Theaters in Germany are “stunned” that Merkel’s lockdowns to contain their covid-resurgence; France seems close behind; Italy’s cinemas are already closed; and these are countries that had handled the virus okay and were able to open up. Meanwhile, in the US, NYC theaters still push Cuomo to let them open up, even before we’ve hit the end of our First Wave here. I feel the pain, and understand the desire to re-open, but as has now been proven in Europe – things are getting darker before they get better. Maybe Studio Movie Grill understood this when they filed for Chapter 11.
Take a moment to step back and look at the bigger picture. No matter what part of the film/content/media industries you may work in – you need to be thinking about what you’ll do when we have not only covid-19’s second wave, but maybe a third one. You need to be factoring in a likely major stock market correction within the next six months. Factor in the civil unrest we’ll see no matter who wins. Who wants to go to a movie then?
Factor in what happens to entertainment spending when retirees start protecting their savings, gig economy and restaurant workers begin losing jobs again as a result of the above. Factor in a decrease not just in visitors to your cultural institution, but a decrease in Government support as tax bases shrink, and a simultaneous decrease in donations from wealthy folks who suddenly feel they have needier places making stronger arguments for their support.
Sure, festivals and theaters have made a shift to online or “virtual” screenings. But as Anthology Film Archives reports to the NYT, their online revenues are just 5% of their normal box office, and Film Forum brought in just $90,000 from “50 or 60 movies.” That’s what a distribution friend told me he calls “placing flowers on the casket.” And how many of those virtual passes and ticket sales have been a temporary bump as patrons considered them a (likely one time) donation to a good cause this year. Will they return in 2021? What about those sponsors, as brands start to question the value of virtual festivals and screenings, which means a “virtual” presence might become a “virtual” sponsorship (read: in-kind, not dollars).
Meanwhile, we’re getting some lessons for producers and distributors from SVOD. Chiefly, that all of this has been built upon a House of Cards – pun intended, as the entire system has been sustained by the hope of an eventual licensing deal to Netflix or another major SVOD. Unfortunately, not long after launching House of Cards, they’ve realized that original content, produced with profligacy, attracts new subscribers better than arthouse or indie cinema.
If this weren’t dire enough, the entire system for production of the product is endangered on two fronts – the impact of covid on film production, making it impossible to insure anything not made by a Studio or major SVOD player; and the fact that the financiers who would fund such arthouse cinema “on spec” can no longer rely on a sale to recoup their investment as the SVOD services retrench. We are finding ourselves in a system where no one can afford to make or show these films, and perhaps soon, no one will have money to pay to watch them.
Well, that was fun to think about, wasn’t it? And I only brought up about half of the problems on the horizon. The point is – things are going to get worse before they get better. But all hope is not lost, my friends. I know I sound like a pessimist, but as they say: pessimists are always happy because when good things happen, they are always a surprise. Or as I would say – pessimists know to plan for the worst, so they can build something better.
Or as Rebecca Green over at Dear Producer says this week – now is the time to "step back and think about the future of independent film, not just the future of your own projects. Think about how we as a community of brave and diverse storytellers are going to preserve the artistry of film that drove us to do this work. Think of big, bold, and new ideas. The dust has not even begun to settle and there is a lot of disruption yet to come. We have a long road ahead and each of us are going to have to decide if we’re in it for the long haul or not. Use this time to chart your course.” (emphasis added)
We’ve got some scary times ahead of us. But remember, you batten down the hatches so you can sail through the storm to the other side. And if you end up on a barren island after the storm, well, you get to rebuild – and that always makes for a good movie.
note: Next week there will definitely not be a newsletter. We gotta vote and then activate y'all.
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Film
DocNYC RoadTrip: I love this idea so much. NYC based - and also robustly online now - DocNYC announced a new promo/advocacy project that's pretty cool. From their email: Join DocNYC on Facebook Live every afternoon from Monday, Oct. 26th through Friday, Oct. 30th, as we set off on an online DOC NYC Road Trip to check in with filmmaking hubs across the country. DOC NYC’s Artistic Director Thom Powers will talk with filmmakers, programmers and filmmaking advocates as they share documentary news and preview some of DOC NYC’s 2020 slate. Additional guests to be announced. Plus, from now through Saturday, Oct. 31st, get $3 off tickets for any of the festival films featured in Road Trip—more than two dozen titles! Just click on the film titles with an asterisk below, and use code ROADTRIP when checking out!
- And in other news, they're also collaborating with Arthouse Theaters too - "As DOC NYC goes virtual and nationwide for the first time in a year when art house theaters and independent filmmakers alike have had to face new challenges to connect with their audiences, the festival is extending art house theaters in the US a special discount on tickets for their patrons, and will share a portion of ticket revenue with theaters. Interested theaters should email DocNYC here.
Quibi's Death - yeah, I called it back in 2018. But... I also suggested that just by their existence, it would lead to bigger investments in short form content. Digiday takes a look at the challenges their death brings for monetizing higher quality short form content. I think I was wrong - it may just lead more people to cut back their budgets and under-invest in quality short form content instead.
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Miscellany:
 Abolition for The People: Don't understand the defund the police/abolish the police movement? That's ok, I'm still learning too, but there's a great new online project to check out as part of understanding this, and maybe joining the journey or becoming an ally or advocate. “Abolition for the People, a project produced by Kaepernick Publishing in partnership with LEVEL, seeks to end that debate once and for all. Over the next four weeks, the project will publish 30 stories from organizers, political prisoners, scholars, and advocates — all of which point to the crucial conclusion that policing and prisons do not serve as catch-all solutions for the issues and people the state deems social problems."
The Lincoln Project is Becoming a Media Business - Axios Reports. My friend Avi Weider shared this with me, proving what I had long suspected- the "Never Trump" Republicans who built the Lincoln Project have grand ambitions to build out a media empire post-election. It's a smart idea, and an obvious next step. The problem is, if we get so lucky that Trump leaves office - a big IF, I still believe per above - he'll be launching TrumpTV and then we'll have this pitched battle going on for another 4 years. I'm not sure if our country can survive the vitriol, but once again, we're stuck with the Left having NO PLAN whatsoever of what to do when this comes to pass.
Upstart Co-Lab's Has a Book about Impact Investing: Upstart Co-Lab is an organization that connects entrepreneurs to creatives who have projects that can have social impact. They've just published a new online book about impact investing, with case studies of both impact investors and projects that have taken impact investing. I've not yet had time to read the whole thing, but it looks like a great resource.
Molly Stern Launches Zando - the smartest publishing idea in decades - Read the tea leaves folks, because Molly did. Zando will be publishing books and releasing them direct to consumer by way of influencers, book clubs and other "catalyst partners." Via Publishers Weekly
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