March 11, 2021
This week, I was lucky enough to join the vaccinated – exactly one day before the one-year anniversary of this madness. So, I’m feeling a bit more upbeat than usual as I join the legions of writers looking back at what a year of Covid-19 has brought us. I’m also part of the privileged, but still lucky, sector that while hit hard by this disease, has been able to adapt, and knows that so many others were hit harder. The loss that has been suffered is incalculable, and while many of us can see the proverbial light ahead, we aren’t through this yet.
But now seems like a good time to look back over a year, and what we’ve seen and learned in the film world. My first post on coronavirus was on February 28th, and I bet that we’d see an irreversible closing of windows in the film world, and that has come to pass. By March 11th, I was noting multiple festival closings, and wondering what other business practices would change forever. Turns out – a lot more than any of us expected. I started this post trying to cover all of those things, but that was nearing 3500 words and I think I was only half-way through the list. Maybe a better approach is to step back and look at the fundamentals.
First, Covid-19 divided the world into two extremes. There were those who were inconvenienced, but survived or even thrived, and those who lost everything. It did not hit the world equally. And while there were some pleasant surprises/exceptions, it generally tended to exacerbate the divide between the High and the Low. The rich got richer. In film land, this translated into a similar divide – Studio films switched to digital, and captured all the attention and money, leaving less for the rest of us. Films that got into Sundance sold for millions, or at least a profit, while those premiering at lesser fests – pretty much all of them – were stuck in limbo-land. We saw the rise of SVOD, but also AVOD, another high/low divide (the poor pay by watching ads). Those big SVOD platforms moved to original content and stopped buying much else. Established producers, directors and talent are moving into this ecosystem just fine, but the rest…are on Zoom trying to start some alternative platform that will somehow draw attention away from where its already gathered. Or were launching on “virtual cinemas,” or Facebook Live, or Vimeo Livestream, and finding truth in the old adage that digital turns dollars into dimes. But what’s important to remember here is – this isn’t new, it was just exposed and exacerbated by covid.
Second, and more importantly, the biggest thing we learned in 2020 was that try as it might, the industry can’t ignore the majority of the population forever. While this wasn’t caused by Covid, it coincided with it and was exacerbated by it, and was the story of 2020. Black Lives Matter and the related movements for empowering BIPOC creators, crew, stories and audiences were more than overdue, will remain an ongoing struggle, and will continue to need allies (like me, but not as much as the allies might think), but it “feels different this time.” It feels like real change is coming, and while the way we got here was tragic (people shouldn’t have to die to wake us up), it’s been the best part of a bad year. Let’s hope that the creative community continues to respond to the calls to change. But I’m not too worried about whether Hollywood (or Indiewood) will wake up, because the creators and their community aren’t going to wait. While there have long been strong movements of diverse filmmakers/creators stepping outside the system and building their own networks, this year was also one of movement building. I was on numerous Zoom panels where creators were plotting their own content revolutions (and I’m sure I missed thousands of others), and I can’t wait to see the new systems, platforms, business and creative models that are built in 2021 in response to the organizing of 2020.
The third big story for film was what I predicted back on February 28th, 2020: the windows closed, due to covid, and streaming-primacy became the norm almost overnight as everyone reacted to theaters being closed. The streaming revolution is finally upon us, a decade later than expected. We saw the rise of the SVOD players, which increased with what seemed like a million plus signs (+). This has led to content wars that will only increase through 2021, as everyone fights for your attention and subscription dollars (yet the majority of consumers are happy to stick with just one - Netflix). And SVOD is only part of the story. PVOD – premium VOD – had been experimented with before, but it became a preferred mechanism for launching films. To the extent that I still have 30 something films in my queue that aren’t good enough to spend $20 bucks on, so I’m waiting til they go to TVOD for a realistic price (5 bucks).
But PVOD is our present and future, and so is AVOD (free, ad-supported) – for the right films. A lot of customers out there don’t need more than one SVOD service, and don’t want to spend money on PVOD or TVOD for every movie, and they’re flocking to AVOD services like Roku TV, Pluto, Tubi, and IMDBtv, which more than doubled its audience in 2020 to over 55 million viewers. HBO Max launches a free, ad-supported tier by this Summer, and we can expect this space to grow exponentially. Quick aside – this is a very rich space for brands to curate, package and sponsor content going forward, and expect to see that as well.
Of course, this switch to streaming leaves everyone wondering about cinemas. AMC Theaters just announced that it lost $4.6 Billion dollars during the pandemic, but then again, they have $1 Billion on hand for re-opening. And on a smaller scale, Alamo Drafthouse announced their bankruptcy this past week, but also noted they’d raised a bunch of funding to come out of this positioned for the future. But many analysts and prognosticators (especially in the tech world, conveniently enough) aren’t so sure. My take - Sure, we’ll see a reduction in the total number of theater screens in the US, and a lot of consolidation in the sector. We will likely see a few chains and prime locations being bought by the studios/SVODs as premiere venues. And no, customers won’t go back to their old habits. I’m a cinephile, but I can admit that at least 50% of the films I watch didn’t need to be seen on the big screen. I bet many would say even less need this presentation, and will stay home for a lot more movies.
But (good) theaters will survive. It can’t be said enough – people want to watch more movies right away at home, but a sizeable number will still go see films in theaters, and both can co-exist. While me, and you, and probably all my readers are itching to get back to cinemas more often, I’m not sure that’s enough audience to bring them much above their current 25% capacity limits. But remember, pre-covid, getting past 25% capacity aside from Friday and Saturday nights was a win!
Accepting the new streaming model and the collapse of windows can lead to lots of new business models that might be exciting. For example, I think we’ll find in 2021 that smart theaters won’t just grow to like collapsed windows, many will learn that you can play a good film weeks after it opens at home and still get an audience. Yes, I will bet on this... And if we all approach this right – we might even save cinema, which is the bigger issue. We should all be happy every time someone pays for any movie, who cares where they watch it?! In a world where most people want to watch reality-TV and cooking shows, if they are watching anything other than TikTok and Instagram, we should start to redefine our goals and markers of success for films.
Because let’s face it – that was the other big lesson of covid and 2020 – even in lock-down, people had a lot of competition for their attention. Maybe more than ever, as every other live/in-person artform migrated to the screen. Theatre (capital-T), and comedy, and live music, and dance, and all those other things will go back to IRL, but they won’t be abandoning their newfound online audiences. We had been moving to an attention-economy for years, but this too was accelerated by covid, and it’s the world all of us must struggle with going forward – finding a way to break through the noise and get any kind of attention for our art, and the arts we love. If we learned anything from the shift of film fests to online and from all of these virtual releases, it’s that online buzz is hard to create, and “breaking into the cultural conversation” is just getting harder. I think that struggle came to the fore in 2020, and will be the story of 2021. But having just gotten my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, I'm looking forward to all the things we'll attempt as we address this conundrum.
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Film
Sales were happening at EFM: The Belinale's EFM took place virtually this past week, and Screen reports that sellers and buyers were both pretty happy. The market was slimmed down, but active, and everyone reported that sales were happening - in both docs and fiction, and at a market that is a bit more arthouse than the American ones. A good sign for the coming year. I had a chance to tour the virtual edition, and thought it was pretty well produced as well. The screenings were easy to navigate and view, and the panels/events were mostly professionally produced. I wish more American fests would copy the (well-funded) European model of having professional moderators in a real studio, as it really helps make the events better than an average zoom panel.
SpringHill Entertainment is "the envy of Hollywood": Good article on LeBron James and Maverick Carter's SpringHill Entertainment in FastCo, which named them one of the most innovative companies of 2020. They're a great example of a fully diversified company - doing original films, branded content, and more. Sure, it doesn't hurt to have superstars at your company, but they've also got a plan, heavily focused on underserved, diverse audiences and storytelling that's worth watching.
PBS Could Help Rebuild Trust in US Media: A report in CJR (from the Tow Center's email news) looked at the opinions of PBS viewers, and found that audiences have a lot of trust for PBS, and its news & opinion, and this was true from viewers on both the left and the right. The article calls for greater investment in PBS, and shifted away from the broadcast model to one more digital. Worth a read.
Watching Relationship Movies together can cut the divorce rate - a silly study, but... the family that watches movies together, stays together. It even worked better than therapy. Now that's what I call social impact filmmaking.
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Branded Content
Condé Nast Moving into Fiction: Condé Nast Entertainment has hired a serious producer - Helen Estabrook (Whiplash, Tully, among others) to produce narrative/fiction content (scripted features and series) based on their brands and IP - a smart move into original content, which other platforms and brands should follow. It's time the sector moves into scripted as much as non-.
The Brand Storytelling Honor Roll Announced: My friends over at Brand Storytelling announced their annual list of leaders - from the brand side - in branded entertainment. This year's cohort is pretty awesome, and includes a couple friends of mine (one of whom was also a client - Scott Ballew at Yeti). Check out the list of winners and their work.
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Miscellany:
Tim Wu added to the National Economic Council - Tech Companies Scared - Biden has appointed Tim Wu to the NEC, and tech companies are worried, which is a good thing. As this article in Protocol shows, just by its title - ‘This could be dangerous’: Why Tim Wu’s appointment has Big Tech rattled: A leader in the trust-busting movement will advise Biden's 'whole government' approach to the tech industry. Wow. The article is essentially a big argument for all of the good things Wu has done, and how he might bring more regulation to the industry, but this being an industry rag, they spin it into danger Will Robinson stuff. Wu's not perfect, but he has a great track record of thinking big about the future of tech (he coined Net Neutrality), but he's also been pretty practical along the way, and he should bring some smart thinking that we need right now to the administration.
Lina Khan Nominated to FTC: And in further bad news for monopolists, the news about Tim Wu was closely followed by another big appointment - of Lina Khan to the FTC. I don't know her work as well, but it seems most people who follow this stuff, know her and think she's a great appointment, who signals more anti-trust views, especially when it comes to Big Tech and Media (of course, business and Republicans are a bit apoplectic about this one too). The Information (paywall) has a good run-down on Khan's background and what it might mean for regulation - the short of it being, she may go after Amazon, trying to break it up, but the Courts remain packed with Trump appointees who will give her a lot of trouble. It's funny reading all of these tech journals that are worried about regulation - which would only serve to increase competition and are actually pro-business and just anti-monopolistic business. Gonna be fun.
Myth-Busting the Bay Area Exodus/Austin - I shouldn't have to report this here, but I feel like every week someone repeats the myth to me that tons of companies are leaving cities, especially San Francisco and the Bay Area, for more hospitable climes like Austin. Well, it just isn't true. Here's a report from Insider, with data from Telstra, showing that only 3.1% of startups left the Bay Area, and most of those went to Denver (or NY or other parts of CA). People are coming back to Manhattan, too, and we need to put an end to this myth.
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